Social Distancing in Australia.

a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Got some Kosciuszko Pale Ale in the eski... I'll keep you a cold one until next year... at least!

To try to explain what I mean by my last paragraph:

If we assume that this virus emerged sometime around the end of 2019, and use a set of virus assumptions based somewhere between the official numbers of China and the official numbers of the USA, then the mathematics basically explains what will happen. Of course there could be other variables that change the equations before we get there, such as an effective vaccine, treatment or cure, mutations to the virus, quarantines (a little bit), reinfections, etc.

Here's a couple of important general numbers that are trending based on global statistics:
First, to stop the exponential curve from getting established in the first place, or to stop any "re-blooms", you need 4 or less infected people per day in a given population (Australia had 64 new case yesterday... a few more than 4) to stop the spread, which when over 4 per day, is represented by an exponential curve.

Second, in order to "reduce" the exponential curve in a given population to be "not exponential', the population must reach 8 out of 10 people in complete isolation (a family unit is not considered complete isolation). Realistically based on human error, 8/10 won't be good enough, so let's make it 9/10. In other words, we have to have 90% of people in effective complete isolation to stop the exponential from happening.

These concepts work on any given population that is linked by more than 10% interactions (or the 90% in isolation from above). In other words, any two or more countries that have more than a 10% ratio of their populations still interacting, mixed with the idea that all you need is four cases to establish or keep the exponential curve going, will maintain a single exponential curve for any linked curve.

Practical example; every country in the world is still linked through supply chains, aid, businesses and governments, so effectively represent a single global population (minus maybe North Korea and Bahrain... possibly China now, and S.Korea, which have completely isolated from the rest of the world, effectively reducing the global population by their respective population sizes). This means there is still an overall exponential curve that we can estimate for the globe.

When we follow the numbers... unless something drastic changes (and we haven't seen anything deviate us from this curve for over 3 months), then we are still on track for 10,000,000 people infected per day by mid June. Mathematically inescapable, unless we reach 8/10 people completely isolated, and less than 4 person per day increase in every isolated population on earth.

A simple way to see this is look at the "New Cases" column at www.worldometers.info.... Every single number in that column has to be under 4 to arrest the population exponentials, which all add up to a single global exponential... which when combined also has to be under 4 to stop it globally... seem likely?

TL;DR
Based on the global curve, that you can track from December 2019 (with the trending numbers of 8/10 completely isolated and less than 4 increases in daily infected), then globally we WILL reach 10 million people infected per day, at the peak in June.

a reply to: CthruU

What is the hotline for dobbing because I've not heard of it.

You are most correct about us heading in the hands of the Chinese however, don't be so blatantly ignorant as to think it's by the will of the Australian people.

Where are you from that's so great you don't cow tow to another country?

If you're in the US how is it being a vassal state of Israel? They don't even have a quarter of your population and own you suckers outright! Stop sending your kids to die in their wars.

a reply to: puzzlesphere

Yes the MSM here is OZ is beginning to carry on about relaxation of the lockdown. It seems to be one big mind game.

a reply to: CthruU


The two phrases you quoted about Australians are wrong.

We call Shrimp = Prawns. You watched Jim Carey making fun of an earlier ad Paul Hogan made to get USA tourists.

She'll be right mate is Australian.

You obviously know nothing about us paid actors anyway.

originally posted by: IAMALLYETALLIAM

If you're in the US how is it being a vassal state of Israel? They don't even have a quarter of your population and own you suckers outright! Stop sending your kids to die in their wars.

We like to fight..what can I say...

originally posted by: TheSkunk
a reply to: CthruU


The two phrases you quoted about Australians are wrong.

We call Shrimp = Prawns. You watched Jim Carey making fun of an earlier ad Paul Hogan made to get USA tourists.

She'll be right mate is Australian.

You obviously know nothing about us paid actors anyway.

You also love your Fosters I hear...

originally posted by: CthruU
a reply to: dniMnepO

So OpenMind backwards what would you expect from a communities of individuals built on mullets, blue singlets, AC/DC, thongs and VB.

From what i hear the hotline for (dobbing) i think you call it is running red hot - not very Australian either -is it.

Australians care more about their trade with China hence their lattest plane load of medical masks and similar from no less than Wuhan itself than any life on the big island anyway.

Like your name it all seems very backwards and confused to me. But kinda typical nevertheless.

Oh well " chuck another shrimp on the barby" - "she'll be right cobber".

PS : suspicious how the Aussie death rate from CV at last check was 51 i think, just wondering if China gave them a break on spreaders flown in in return for their trade business.

Australian governments are traitors to the west and have been kissing chinese rearends for sometime now.
Hope you all like noodles and dim sims, oh and communism under chinese rule cause thats where Australias heading very rapidly.

Have a go at you trying to project your own #ries ineptness onto others. coddle up to israel much ? Then again it must be hard to keep track of which countries your sell out hypocritical gov. are actually mates with on any given week....if not day.....if not hour. While I'm at it , as much as this might shock you champ the rest of the world don't view you guys like you seem to view yourselves....especially the 25% of the world that your dictatorship has the boot on their neck demanding sanctions must hold. Hows about instead of your grossly corrupt military run gov. going around invading other countries( simply coz you guys care for the people of said country) just lock down into a repeat of your civil war -reds v blues but keep it on your home soil. Oh & refrain from propogandaring it to all & sundry. Your rulers are worse than corrupt, worse than pure evil & are the sole cause for majority of shi* that's affecting this rock both past & present & for some as* about reason think your so smart that you can literally b/s x 100 to the world how your the good guys & you'll fix it for us all. Google Whitney Webb pal & have a read of her brilliant researched article & then wake the hell up man to what's going on in your own 'hood !

a reply to: Xtrozero

No swearing please