COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

Just passing on an information source. Easy to read graphical.

The hard data are the two horizontal lines - Dark Pink for All Hospital Beds available and Green for ICU beds available.

The dotted lines are the Institute's projections and the shaded portions show the conceivable range depending on rapidly changing variables.

The link takes you to the US as a whole, from there you have a drop down menu that will take you to individual states.

covid19.healthdata.org...

a reply to: FyreByrd

The interesting part of this site is the time to peak. Some states won't even peak for another month or more. We are in for a long few months especially those who have already been in isolation for 3 plus weeks. Then it's likely to flair back up in some areas already peaked.

So, 7 more days til peak in MI supposedly from that site.
I'll have to keep an eye on the news, and see if reporting changes at that time.

To my knowledge, the models don't factor in the potential effectiveness of treatments currently being tried. If the chloroquine treatments etc are effective, the models will be useless and have to be redone.

At least that's what Birx and Fauci have said.

That's totally understandable, why factor them in if it's not known for sure they will help?

But, if they prove to be effective, will the media tell everyone "hey all these models with 100s of thousands of deaths assumed we had no effective treatment and they're all useless now" or will they keep pushing panic?

I'd also like to know which numbers they're using for these. The guy who made some of the original models has since walked his own projections back too.

originally posted by: ketsuko
I'd also like to know which numbers they're using for these. The guy who made some of the original models has since walked his own projections back too.

I'd love to know how they think they can model something that has a giant human element in it, which is inherently unpredictable.

a reply to: FyreByrd

Here in Indiana it isn't slowing down averaging 400 new cases a day even with the lock down from what I see it's not going to turn out a seasonal virus . I wish I could remember where I heard a Doctor say it's not a actual "live" virus that it's got a very delicate protective casing so as long as some of the virus survives It looks like it will just keep going .

a reply to: ketsuko

The model is updated regularly, I believe.

Last daily update on April 1, 2020.

I know the numbers have shifted a bit for Hawaii since I first became aware of the site.

The guy who made some of the original models has since walked his own projections back too.

I think you are misinterpreting what actually occurred.

I am In Az we are just starting to get hotter weather along with 50% humity am hoping the 2 together slow it down some .
going by that chart the city i am in should top out around 1000 to 1200 .
we are at right at 400 cases as of today last week it was 200 2.5 more weeks lord be so gald when this is over alawys hoped it would not happen in my life time .