Flatten the Curve or Spike It

You hear a lot about "flattening the curve" of COVID-19 infections and deaths, but is that necessarily the best thing to happen? Do you want to pull the Band-aid off sloooowly, or do you want to give it a quick pull and get on with your life?

In this case, there's no guarantee that slowing exposure will reduce deaths. We don't know that for sure. What we do know, however, is that we can't hide under the covers for weeks or months without crippling the economy. And if we don't know for sure how bad it's going to be compared to average, then we shouldn't be making such rash decisions in the first place.

So maybe next time we let nature take its course, take our usual flu precautions, and let it spike out early so we don't run the world economy off the rails when a relatively small number of people die, many of whom would have died anyway because that is nature.

a reply to: Blue Shift

I assume you are not a healthcare worker or are going to be taking care of the patients in any way shape or form.

Na, just let a whole ton of Americans die.

a reply to: Blue Shift

Flattening the curve isn't about reducing deaths exactly, it's to relieve the strain on healthcare in general, so that over all you will yes have people dying but in the end less people will die and the healthcare system can easily turn over patients and recover at a resemble rate. And it's not just about the virus, people with actual serious medical emergencies cannot be ignored, someone who has a heart attack, or acute pancreatitis, or complications of cancer, need to be able to have access to immediate health care.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: Blue Shift

Flattening the curve isn't about reducing deaths exactly, it's to relieve the strain on healthcare in general, so that over all you will yes have people dying but in the end less people will die and the healthcare system can easily turn over patients and recover at a resemble rate. And it's not just about the virus, people with actual serious medical emergencies cannot be ignored, someone who has a heart attack, or acute pancreatitis, or complications of cancer, need to be able to have access to immediate health care.

That's a quick way for Trump to get rid of his largest voting bloc.. Fox News rating are going to take a big hit too..

Shooting themselves in the foot by going with the 'herd immunity' strategy.

a reply to: Blue Shift

Flabbergasted at your reasoning considering the numbers of people who would die, down to the strain placed on our respective medical health care establishments.

a reply to: Blue Shift

We should have forced a quarantine on the more vulnerable early on. Then the spike would have been less of a strain on the health system. Now, we can just quarantine all. In Italy the average age of death of infected people is 78.

Maybe we'll all learn from this.

Jeff

a reply to: Blue Shift

if you are going to critisise " flattening the curve " - please have the decency to understand it

They have been working on a SARS vaccine for 16 years and still haven't developed one. Realistically this flatten the curve could turn into twenty years of house arrest. We need to prepare now for spiking the curve because what we're doing is not sustainable and in time people will grow to resist this.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: Blue Shift

Flattening the curve isn't about reducing deaths exactly, it's to relieve the strain on healthcare in general, so that over all you will yes have people dying but in the end less people will die and the healthcare system can easily turn over patients and recover at a resemble rate. And it's not just about the virus, people with actual serious medical emergencies cannot be ignored, someone who has a heart attack, or acute pancreatitis, or complications of cancer, need to be able to have access to immediate health care.

You said it yourself. We need to keep access for those who are sick from other diseases and traumas. Thus we need to slow the curve and extend it, lest a bunch of other people die of other preventable stuff.

originally posted by: infolurker
Na, just let a whole ton of Americans die.

A ton of Americans are going to die. That's a hard truth but it happens every year, coronavirus or not. But now add to that suicides and deaths due to lost jobs and homes and life savings and health insurance from the severely damaged economy. Or who now will become victims of crime - maybe even murder - that desperate people will resort to. Or if not death then at least a significantly reduced quality of life for many times the number of people who might not (or might, because no one can accurately know) have died otherwise.

The thing about thinking of it as a curve to be flattened, spread out over time, is that there's more than one curve, all interconnected, and if you manipulate one it's going to have a serious impact on the others in ways nobody expected. A normal infection curve has a quick buildup to a peak spike then a relatively rapid decline as people survive it, develop antibodies and the virus mutates into a less dangerous form with most of the population left fairly unscathed. Mess with that and you're just asking for trouble.

As it is, we have all become infected with either the virus itself or the consequences of the panic, when it just wasn't necessary. Maybe we'll get a clue by the time the next one hits, which it will, but who knows? I kinda doubt it. That won't get the media all those juicy clicks.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: Blue Shift

Flabbergasted at your reasoning considering the numbers of people who would die, down to the strain placed on our respective medical health care establishments.

ok first problem with your logic is the "considering the numbers of people who would die".
do you have a crystal ball with EXACT death tolls?

because if your using (as I suspect) the PREDICTIONS the press keep putting out you should know that is based ON ESTIMATES.. estimates that have NOT FOLLOWED the hard numbers.

let me refresh your memory... the original predictions showed a world wide death rate of 10 percent.

in fact in less than a month or two that rate worldwide had DROPPED to 2 / 3 percent.

with the rate CONTINUING TO DROP overall with each new batch of cases that do not result in death.

Now before you go into showing say Italy lets remember the second hard fact..
the virus is most dangerous to those of extreme age and MEDICAL COMPROMISED (of any age) to which the elderly also make up that figure in mass as well
not to say your gonna get some young person with no heath problems die.. but overall that is a RARITY...

so say Italy where they have a higher per population of elderly people DUH they will have higher mortality.. but again still the elderly (tragic but true).

in US out of the first 50 deaths half were in ONE NURSING HOME with the rest scattered.

third problem is the HARD FACTS ON THE COMMON FLU..

in the USA

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

here is the last years SPECIFIC STATS..

An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades.

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press.


yet we didnt close the schools, we didnt cry "the heathcare would be overwhelmed or that we would be short ventilators .

in fact just taking IL as one specific stat we have had

12 COVID-19 related deaths now confirmed in Illinois; 1285 cases total


so tell me again how your "estimates" are faring up with COLD HARD NUMBERS again?

now look no one is saying that any deaths are good... it is tragic

but they are UNAVOIDABLE for the most part due to someone medically compromised can be killed by the corvid 19, any influenza type, rsv or other pathogens.

not saying we should not take REASONABLE precautions

but at this point your destroying the lives , economics, education of MILLIONS for not even a 10th of those that are gonna die from the common flu or even more than (ex) will die in IL from chicago gangland shootings.

IMO the reason medical facilities are overstressed is people IN A PANIC are coming in with symptoms that are flu type (be crovid or regular) that could just stay home and treat it there.
thus taking up bed space and medical material that could be applied to those that REALLY NEED medical intervention.

BTW again I bring up DIRECTLY TO YOU and others supporting this overkill..

tell me where were you when over 61 thousand people DIED last year of the flu in US alone


scrounger

Eliminate the curve, lock everyone up in their homes for two months and do door to door testing, positive get taken to an island. Anyone caught outside that aren’t getting essentials get taken to island. Problem solved. In less than a quarter of a year everything goes back to normal

a reply to: scrounger

Actually, in places like Spain and Italy, the death rate is around 10%.

They're not my estimates their government statistics now, at least in those poor nations.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: scrounger

Actually, in places like Spain and Italy, the death rate is around 10%.

They're not my estimates their government statistics now, at least in those poor nations.

first Italy is around 7.2 percent at last report.
the population has a higher number of citizens in elderly range (with medical conditions) than say the USA thus leading to more deaths .

lastly we are at last count USA (btw where we live) less than 1 percent mortality vs infected

but hey dont let FACTS get in way of the rants justifying the draconian actions right

scrounger

a reply to: scrounger

but hey dont let FACTS get in way of the rants justifying the draconian actions right

The fact is that there is an ever growing number of unresolved cases. The fact is that as long is that case the "CFR" doesn't mean squat.

academic.oup.com...
There is definitely a nonnegligible number of patients with unknown outcomes and that number continues to rise. The CFR doesn't matter right now. Right now what matters is what will happen in hospitals.

a reply to: Phage

with respect you cant use "predected" , estimated, ect to determine either good or bad with any accuacy.

I quoted COLD HARD numbers and the trends USING THOSE COLD HARD NUMBERS are showing.

In fact the "claims" of death (the really big issue here lets be honest) predections from the beginning have been proven wrong.

as the continued claims in italy alone "the death rate is 10 percent" that has been touted here in posts when the numbers are at 7.2.

Now if you gonna say "whats happening in hospitals" that also is not accurate either...
because alot in USA are panic, regular flu , covid and regular medical issues (accidents, crime, ect).

the difference in the flu and corvid is unless medical intervention is needed, the treatment is still the same. with the main difference is if you say covid the PPE they use goes up.

by all accounts over the last TWO MONTHS the rate in USA of infections to mortality is STILL under one percent.
those most at risk are the elderly and have other medical conditons...
the same people are vulnerable to "the common flu", RSV and other pathogens.

look you can spin it, twist it, yell at others for pointing it out , ect but there is three cold hard truths.

one.. there WILL BE more infected found and some more deaths... that isnt gonna stop

two... the infection to mortality rate in covid is EQUAL TO or even less than the common flu...

three.. the COLD HARD NUMBERS do not support the "predictions" that have happened in the US much less the world

look I will point this out again to those that keep harping this when it comes to corvid19

the number of those infected, go to the hospital , requiring medical intervention and death are no where near the number of those infected by the common flu (influenza virus )

those infected and died by the "flu" number at all levels MORE by factor of 10 or more than the corvid19

this has been happening in USA for YEARS with numbers being greater and lesser but still well over 50 thousand deaths alone.

but we DID NOT REACT the way we are now.

Covid has existed at least two months (with some reports as much as a year) before ever anounced by the chineese .

but even in the two months we have not even come close in infected or deaths .

but yet by continuing to over react to corvid (again based on COLD HARD NUMBERS) you are basically saying....
if you were infected and/or if you died by the "common flu" we dont care... your not worth it.

but the RELATIVELY FEW that in USA (cant say in italy due to those numbers very hard to find) that while tragic IS MORE IMPORTANT .

so grandma isnt worth any extra protection from the flu...but corvid19 that kills less and effect her the same is worth destroying milliions of peoples lives over.

own up to it

scrounger

a reply to: scrounger

I dont live in the USA.

The stats are what they are.

Take care son, this crap is no joke.