The importance of herd immunity

The herd immunity process is sometimes misunderstood. I had thought that if a certain percentage of the population got vaccinated, it sheltered the unvaccinated. That's true in part, but there's more to it.

Here is an excellent vid about how it works. It's concise but thorough
youtu.be...

PubMed article:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

originally posted by: ColeYounger
The herd immunity process is sometimes misunderstood. I had thought that if a certain percentage of the population got vaccinated, it sheltered the unvaccinated. That's true in part, but there's more to it.

Here is an excellent vid about how it works. It's concise but thorough
youtu.be...

PubMed article:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

It takes between 70-80% infection rate of a total n populace for herd immunity to kick in.

For the United States that would be 227,500,000 people that need to get infected for herd immunity to even *start* to kick in.

Covid has a 10-20% serious case rate requiring hospitalization.

That's 20,000,000+ Americans who would all need simultaneous admittance to a hospital if it spreads unchecked and hits the country at once.

The danger isn't the virus itself for most people... It's the overrun of the entire system as a whole.

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

I agree with you. All this stuff we are doing and the world is doing, is to just try to slow down the spread, not to stop it. We don't have the medical capacity to treat everyone all at once, not even close. I was reading another article that said Norway only had 1200 ventilators for 5 million people. If 80% got sick all at once, that is 4 million basically, if 20% require hospitalization, thats 800,000, and if 20% of that needs a ventilator, thats 160,000 for 1200 ventilators. That means the mortality rate goes WAY, WAY up, cause you can't help those in the most dire straights. If they can slow the infection down, it helps save people. Yes it drags it out longer, but more people survive.

Camain

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo

originally posted by: ColeYounger
The herd immunity process is sometimes misunderstood. I had thought that if a certain percentage of the population got vaccinated, it sheltered the unvaccinated. That's true in part, but there's more to it.

Here is an excellent vid about how it works. It's concise but thorough
youtu.be...

PubMed article:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

The danger isn't the virus itself for most people... It's the overrun of the entire system as a whole.

Yes..like what is happening in Italy.
Thanks for adding that valuable info to the thread!

originally posted by: ColeYounger

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo

originally posted by: ColeYounger
The herd immunity process is sometimes misunderstood. I had thought that if a certain percentage of the population got vaccinated, it sheltered the unvaccinated. That's true in part, but there's more to it.

Here is an excellent vid about how it works. It's concise but thorough
youtu.be...

PubMed article:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

The danger isn't the virus itself for most people... It's the overrun of the entire system as a whole.

Yes..like what is happening in Italy.
Thanks for adding that valuable info to the thread!

One of the main problems is total recovery time. It seems to vary between 2 weeks to 2 months depending on the individual case, not just severity. A moderate case requiring a respirator can last over a month, while a critical case might be able to be taken off after just a couple weeks.

The variety of every situation is truly astounding.

We can't predict the future based on other country's past. It isn't affecting every area/ethnicity the same.

I didn’t watch the video but it’s my understanding that there are two different types of herd immunity .

The first is immunity thru vaccination .

The second is immunity thru contagion .

Either way results are the same .

Once the herd reaches a certain level of immunity it’s like dialing a fire hose down to a drip .

Vaccine herd immunity do not work in practice since outbreaks still keep happening in populations that are vaccinated.

originally posted by: Fallingdown
I didn’t watch the video but it’s my understanding that there are two different types of herd immunity .

The first is immunity thru vaccination .

The second is immunity thru contagion .

Either way results are the same .

Once the herd reaches a certain level of immunity it’s like dialing a fire hose down to a drip .

Assuming the infected make antibodies that protect them from future infections.

We're not sure that is the case with Covid yet, as there are documented cases of Reinfection in people as young as 36.

You have our parasitic medical mafia to thank for the fact that medical care has been treated as a privilege mostly reserved for the upper class for decades.

The reason our medical capacity is so compact is that they never planned on helping everyone. With anything. This is a direct consequence of that policy. There has always been millions of people suffering with serious conditions and being basically ignored by the medical community because they cannot pay.

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

Is there something new on reinfections? I looked into it a while back .
Then they were saying everything from a misdiagnosis, being given a clean bill of health too early and the antibodies possibly wearing off .

At this point those are outliers . Just more blood in the water for the press .

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

Is there something new on reinfections? I looked into it a while back .
Then they were saying everything from a misdiagnosis, being given a clean bill of health too early and the antibodies possibly wearing off .

At this point those are outliers . Just more blood in the water for the press .

What do you mean outliers?

We have no idea what the long-term effects are yet. 20-30% of recovered 30 year olds have post-infection damage lungs.

3 months in the news, and you people act like you know exactly what's going on, when we have people with 3-month infections.

This is the very beginning. We won't have clear info for 12-24 months at the earliest.

a reply to: ColeYounger

I wonder if Boris Johnson will be bumping his gums quite so hard about all this herd immunity bulltard should his pregnant partner Carrie Symonds test positive?

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

By “you people” I assume you’re talking about everyone but me ? 🤔

Breeze through my threads you will see I’ve been preaching about not enough information for quite a while .


This is from an article .

While I don’t trust the statistics in the news anymore. This is still the premise of my position barring hard data.

Wang, whose full name has not been disclosed for privacy reasons, is one of more than 100 reported cases of Chinese patients who have been released from hospitals as survivors of the new coronavirus — only to test positive for it a second time in the bewildering math of this mysterious illness.

The science surrounding these apparent reinfections is further complicated by China’s handling of the outbreak, which since January has been marred by faulty testing procedures and questionable case counting methods with shifting definitions. In addition, the overburdened healthcare system has put pressure on doctors to discharge people who may not have fully recovered to free up beds for newly infected patients.

No one knows why they are testing positive. That’s why I asked if you had any hard data . I would’ve welcomed something from the CDC , WHO or Lancet for that matter. Then at least we would have a better understanding of what we’re dealing with .

Such cases account for less than 0.2% of China’s total infections — not enough to cause alarm. But they are raising questions in China about the reliability of diagnostic tests, the possibility of reinfection and whether patients are wrongly designated as “recovered” and released too early from hospitals.

Outlier and without hard data a dubious one at that.

Source

The only type of forecast or prediction I’ve made on Covid19 is from observing patterns .

The next two weeks or so should tell the tale.

a reply to: Fallingdown

True, and my apologies. Didn't mean to insult you if i did. Apologies...

It could be true after the initial Infection we build up temporary antibodies to the virus.

And conversely, we don't know how long (if present) antibodies last in a recovered patient.

It could just be the first cases losing immunity after a time and contacting new carriers.

We won't know for a while.

You hope for the best, while planning for the worst.

Most aren't planning at all.

The human species never developed “herd immunity” to polio or smallpox or any virus, really — ever, despite millennia of death and illness and misery. Why not? Because herd immunity depends on vaccines. We vaccinate a large number of people, and then all of us are protected, because transmission rates are reduced (among other things.) Let me make the point again. The human race never developed herd immunity to a lethal virus, precisely because herd immunity is not something that emerges naturally. What happens, instead, when we let a virus simply take its course? What happened with smallpox and polio: they just rampage through populations, forever.

I’ll just set this x..

Source

a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

Fuhgeddaboudit I didn’t take it as an insult.

I thought I made a clever joke in return ?

I must be losing my touch ? Lol

When reinfection first popped up.

Many from the medical field laid the blame precisely where you are laying it.

They claimed that in some cases recovered patients shed their immunity quickly .

To date as far as I know that hasn’t been proven wrong.

But it hasn’t been proven right either .

Everything is still in a wait and see mode .

originally posted by: Bicent

The human species never developed “herd immunity” to polio or smallpox or any virus, really — ever, despite millennia of death and illness and misery. Why not? Because herd immunity depends on vaccines. We vaccinate a large number of people, and then all of us are protected, because transmission rates are reduced (among other things.) Let me make the point again. The human race never developed herd immunity to a lethal virus, precisely because herd immunity is not something that emerges naturally. What happens, instead, when we let a virus simply take its course? What happened with smallpox and polio: they just rampage through populations, forever.

My brother died of polio at the age of two and a half before the polio vaccination

was invented. I was one year old at the time, and probably highly susceptable to

infection? but neither I or my father and mother got it .....I'm wondering if there

are people tho have a natural immunity to certain virus's, because not everyone

that have been in groups has ended up catching the corona virus??

a reply to: eletheia

Maybe not full immunity but something in our systems that makes it harder for a particular bacteria or virus to get a foothold unless the exposure was stronger?

Herd immunity is preposterous.



HERD IMMUNITY: CAN MASS VACCINATION ACHIEVE IT?


Herd Immunity: Fact or Fiction?


Vaccines/Antibodies do NOT Confer Immunity



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