NEWS: Dollar Under Fire

Originally posted by cryptorsa1001

Originally posted by soficrow
The trade deficit is linked quite strongly to the Mad Cow thing - and likely won't improve until more countries start importing US beef again. Hard to know when that night happen.

I would say you are way off the mark on this one.

I should know better than to post when I'm half asleep. ...Here's a bit that makes more sense:



Old analysis:
www.epinet.org...

Current analysis:
www.newstarget.com...

* John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, last night renewed demands for Europe and Japan to boost growth to ease global economic imbalances after America's trade gap surged to a monthly record of $60 billion (£32 billion) in November.
* A slump in US exports, blamed on weak demand in key trading partners, combined with a sharp rise in America's oil imports to trigger the surprise jump in the trade deficit.
* The much worse than predicted figures sparked a renewed assault on the dollar on foreign exchanges, sending the US currency tumbling against the yen and the euro.
* Mr Snow blamed the latest jump in the trade deficit on the relative strength of US growth compared with a disappointing performance by the eurozone and Japan.
(more)


News summary:
Source: business.timesonline.co.uk...

[edit on 13-3-2005 by soficrow]

Care to debunk my findings, soficrow?


seekerof

Originally posted by Seekerof
Care to debunk my findings, soficrow?

seekerof

??? I don't play the "debunking game" - IMO it's usually just a cover for outright bs bullying. I prefer civilized discussion. ...As far as your "findings" go, I normally get them straight from FOX. Sorry, don't read your posts.


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The dollar gets weaker and weaker against major foreign currencies and
if the US Dollar has to be devaluated,it will cause a lot of problems all
over the world.
Those who are interested in the problem about gold,gold currencies,etc,better follow the markets on a daily basis and i.e.:
-U.S. Law Still May Authorize Seizure of Gold And Silver; GATA Queries Treasury
-THE G-7 EFFECT: Selling into Dollar-Strength
www.fromthewilderness.com...
Flanders

Originally posted by soficrow
??? I don't play the "debunking game" - IMO it's usually just a cover for outright bs bullying. I prefer civilized discussion. ...As far as your "findings" go, I normally get them straight from FOX. Sorry, don't read your posts.

I would safely gather that your response is that you can't or won't, and as such, have resorted to giving a typical response that certainly is not representative of one of your ATSNN Reporter status and analysis abilities?

Please....soficrow....
Those findings are not from FOXNews or from American sources (except for the CATO mention). If you had bothered to objectively read them rather than subjectively dismissing them because they did not fit into your agenda(s), you would have noticed that they are European.

Keep up the fine work. Seems many here have come to 'appreciate' it.




seekerof

[edit on 13-3-2005 by Seekerof]

Originally posted by soficrow
* John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, last night renewed demands for Europe and Japan to boost growth to ease global economic imbalances after America's trade gap surged to a monthly record of $60 billion (£32 billion) in November.
* A slump in US exports, blamed on weak demand in key trading partners, combined with a sharp rise in America's oil imports to trigger the surprise jump in the trade deficit.

American industry has been moving overseas for years- this by itself leads to wekened demand for 'American goods- they are made elsewhere.

Add the whacked out foreign investment ratio of U.S. debt to such stalwarts as China, Japan and U.K. the U.S. will be dancing a high tune for a long time to come.

Given the history of the current U.S. administration (all the way back to Brown Bros.) Greenspan will do what he's told to do as will Treasury's Snow. The Treasury Dept. plays second fiddle. In 'normal' times the 'Fed' would control money- these are not normal times.

The Fed wants to raise rates but can't- the economy would tank. Treasury needs to sell more obligations- few buyers. A real Catch 22 situation at the moment. Unless rates go up Treasuries will languish. Let them stall long enough and China will start dumping them. Then we'll see how long the Brits and Japan will continue to hold their ever decreasing portfolio of American debt.
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Originally posted by JoeDoaks
Add the whacked out foreign investment ratio of U.S. debt to such stalwarts as China, Japan and U.K. the U.S. will be dancing a high tune for a long time to come.

I wonder if part of China's strategy of purchasing US bonds and currencies has to do with gaining leverage over the US so they won't interfere in their plans with Taiwan. If the US intervenes, couldn't China cause a crash in the US dollar if they dump all of their reserves at once? I know they can't dump bonds that haven't matured yet but can dump their cash assets.

Businesses hate Europe for two main reasons: Unions and Cost

GE was forced to build a plant in the netherlands if they wished to continue selling their products in Europe. While in negotiations with the unions, GE was forced to give workers 6 weeks vacation, sick leave, and the many numerous holidays that europeans enjoy. Overall the workers only work 32 hrs a week. GE pulled out in 9 months.

This is just one example of why Corportations are fleeing Europe. The outsourcing of jobs is worse in the EU than America. How can you have a long term growth of currency if you do not have any jobs? You can't. The Euro bubble will burst eventually and the countries will go back to their own economies again. No "Coalitions" last forever, especially economic ones.

Originally posted by AceOfBase
I wonder if part of China's strategy of purchasing US bonds and currencies has to do with gaining leverage over the US so they won't interfere in their plans with Taiwan. If the US intervenes, couldn't China cause a crash in the US dollar if they dump all of their reserves at once? I know they can't dump bonds that haven't matured yet but can dump their cash assets.

Interesting perspective. I imagine this has been floated many times. Pre-WW2 is still on the minds of Asians, and they (Asians) have very long memories. China knows what the U.S. did to pressure Japan and surely won't let the same happen to it.

Taiwan? I don't see it. I think the entire Taiwan/China trouble is smoke. Taiwan is another Hong Kong although bigger. Taiwan invest billions in China.

Look to Panama and Venezuela-

This is where China is headed. Remember Reagan? (You know, Ghaud 2) Well his invasion of Panama did one very important thing for the U.S.- it solidified U.S. control of the canal.*

*Almost. Nothing is permanent. China wants free access and perhaps some control but access is paramount. Venezuela has oil and China wants it.

As long as the Chinese has such enormous amounts of U.S. wealth they have a pretty strong hand on getting conseccions.

Originally posted by CAConrad0825
Businesses hate Europe for two main reasons: Unions and Cost

GE was forced to build a plant in the netherlands if they wished to continue selling their products in Europe. While in negotiations with the unions, GE was forced to give workers 6 weeks vacation, sick leave, and the many numerous holidays that europeans enjoy. Overall the workers only work 32 hrs a week. GE pulled out in 9 months.

This is just one example of why Corportations are fleeing Europe. The outsourcing of jobs is worse in the EU than America. How can you have a long term growth of currency if you do not have any jobs? You can't. The Euro bubble will burst eventually and the countries will go back to their own economies again. No "Coalitions" last forever, especially economic ones.

As to GE- get real. If someone wants YOUR money shouldn't they also help you earn it? GE is an enormous waster of companies. I'm glad the Europeans have the ba%&$ to make them do a quid-pro-quo. So what about the benefits. Big deal, like this is 1520 or something?

I wonder how many American jobs GE has sent overseas? How many otherwise profitable American companies were swallowed up only to be re-located? Jack Welch- what's he up to these days-

ProWelch site
Welch's critics (when they can be found) typically point to the massive layoffs he has overseen at GE or to allegations that GE plants have polluted the Hudson River. (Thomas F. O'Boyle's muckraking book At Any Cost is probably the most comprehensive anti-Welch brief to date.) But these and related attacks, whatever their merit, are largely beside the point as far as Welch's boosters are concerned. As long as GE isn't overwhelmed by some massive scandal (think Firestone) or federal lawsuit (think Microsoft), Welch will ultimately be judged by his impact on GE's bottom line.

Sick leave- yeah, wow a real business excess!

GE has sold things to Europe for decades, it's about time they had to put something back into the economy.

Henry Ford was a true industrialist (not a capitalist). He paid his workers well and provided decent housing, a real bank for lending them money and unemployment insurance. Ford knew that to sell something people have to be able to buy it.

GE and the rest need to realize Reaganomics never worked and still won't work. You can't for the supply chain from the manufacturing side indefinitely and not expect dislocations. The U.S. needs to take a few lessons from the Europeans.

Complaining about high wages and health care- either you are a student or retired. By the time the '3rd' world catches up in wages there won't be any '1st' world left. America is slowly impoverishing its own workforce through jingoistic pandering. The government routinely splashes 'created news' in a patriotic display that would make Benedict Arnold blush.

The current administration is as much pro-American as Bin Laden. Both have the same goals- to bring America to its knees. Bin Laden is at least honest enough to tell the world he hates America. The administration will choke the very sinews of the nation in pursuit of its place in history while touting John Wayne one-liners.

Oil will continue upward, the middle class will get squeezed, interest will move upwards because of nothing more than creditor pressures and the dollar will gain a little bit thereby shrinking exports even more.

When the deficit hits $9 Trillion who will be responsible?
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First, Venezuela Oil is too far away from China to be profitable. That's like us wanting to have Iraqi oil. The cost to transport is outrageous so that's why WE get Venezuela oil. However a "union" like OPEC does not allow for competetive free trade and let oil prices drop. They control everything and they will not let it go for cheap. Unions like this are the new age version of monopolies that people still scream about to this day. However new companies can spring up at anytime. Oil wells cannot.

Secondly, onto the GE issue, if it weren't for GE most of us would be SOL. We use so many GE products in our daily lives, I really don't care if it is a big money hungry company, aren't we all like that? We goto work and get our paycheck and then B*#@& about how much taxes are taken out. One boss of mine told me he was going to pay me under the table so that it wouldn't make it to "Bush's Pockets". Also, in Europe, a 32 hr work week, six weeks vacation, and numerous sick days is the status quo. But that is what the EU is trying to change. They are trying to become as productive as America and there by, making a 40-48 hr work week, and other worker "benefits" removed. Yes there was a time where people were working in sweat shop conditions, but rarely does that ever happen in Developed countries, unless you are not a naturalized citizen. I give GE props for pulling out. You should take care of your workers, but do not let them become lazy. Idle hands are the devils playground remember.

PS. After GE pulled out they had to continue paying the factory workers for 2 years, talk about corporate welfare.

CAConrad
Where is the world on oil? Some (Hubbert) think oil inventories are at their all time peak and will only get lower.

If that is true then of course prices go up. All manner of changes will occur in the world's industrial nations when prices escalate.
Check your 'distance' rationale- it never has mattered where oil is located (NEVER)

more Hubbert
An oil exporter until 1993, China recently out-bid all other competitors for heavy oil licenses in Venezuela by a wide margin. The rapidly growing economy is paying highest prices in the global arena to assure its oil supply, and raising the ante for other players.

A little over ten years back China EXPORTED- now they are a major importer. Indonesia imports now also!

Norway: Second only to Saudi Arabia in oil exports, this nation of 4 million people consumes only 7% of its production. Awash in oil revenue and active in aid to developing countries, Norway is extracting over 5% of its reserves every year. With many major fields in decline, the joy ride isn't going to last much longer.

Who knew this?

The U.S.- hope everyone knows how to spell Nuklear

It goes on and on from this web site and many more. Venezuela is 'at play' distance is irrelavant. One days sailing for a super tanker only adds pennies a gallon to the price. Venezuela will ship across the Atlantic, around 'The Horn' then the long way to China. The Panama Canal is not large enough.



IF Panama or Columbia build transshipping terminals (like Syria has done) then the Pacific route would be much shorter. I don't see this happening. The added costs and payoffs per ship would be enormous.

As to GE- to each his own. Your boss wants to pay you under the table? What does that say about you and your boss about supporting the country you make a living from? Robbery pure and simple. People want the benefits but don't want the expenses.

Longer work week- you must be really young. The post reads like the same mentality put forth by Frisk and the old mine owners. They wanted the profit but didn't want to pay living wages. Nothing different than sweat-shops. Economic rapists.

I can't help but wonder what tune will be whistled when when an illegal alien or someone in a foreign country worker for $3 a day takes your job. Those GE appliances won't matter because the unemployment system will be broke due to the under-payers.

I'm probably wrong CAConrad but I will continue believing that companies should support their customers. It has never made sense to me to treat people like a commodity to be abused. Some have no problem with that. It seems to me that the whole reason any of this economic stuff happens is to have a better life. Life can't be better if my neighbors live in shacks, have no health care and worry about their children, can't go to a dentist and live with rotten teeth, drive 10 year old clunkers because they are too poor for something else, work 48 hours a week to make someone else's 'vision' a reality, etc.

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I am young, however working a 40 hr week is not a sweat shop. It is productivity, hell most people don't even work those 40 hrs. they sit at their workstations and Bull # because people are naturally lazy.

I am part of a generation that under the current system is having to support a larger group and you are telling me that people are not supported by their companies? Why should the companies do that, the government already does! If my tax dollars are going to support old people then why should their company fork out too? Either make social security more efficient or have companies take care of it. Not both.

So what if I am young? That does not mean that I have no idea about what should be done. People my age are dying the same way that people your age died in Vietnam, Korea, and the World Wars. Yes I am young, but I am conservative. Not the status quo but that's what makes America great. Personal responsibility my countrymen... it is what this land was based on and it is what we have be taught since the birth of mankind.

Charity works, socialism doesn't. Government programs are a social handicap that make people lazy. Get over it and take responsibility for your own economics. 3rd world countries (Not Developing, because they are the 3rd world...there I said it) have learned to adapt. Why is it that the people of the 1st world are reverting to laziness and apathy so as to blame the rich for them being poor.

Rich people should get tax breaks, why? Because they pay the most in taxes. Why reward someone for not doing anything?! Economic logic, that's why anybody is rich. Not becaues they should help the poor. It is their money. let them use it as they want. I am not rich nor poor, but I still feel that it is my own fault that I am where I am. I am in college and cannot work a full time job, but after I graduate with my degree I will be able to make more and I will be a fine member of society without an economic crutch.

PS. Many people who never graduated high school make more than grad students. These people are electricians, plumbers and mechanics. Many of todays millionares and billionares rose from the gutter to become who they are today. People need to have the drive to survive. Social Darwinism at work.

Originally posted by CAConrad0825
I am young, however working a 40 hr week is not a sweat shop. It is productivity, hell most people don't even work those 40 hrs. they sit at their workstations and Bull # because people are naturally lazy.

Disagree- MOST people do not work in air-conditioned environments in the USA. (surprise)

Don't take anything I post as 'talking down' as I surely don't mean anything that way. I just see many more hooks in things than you do. Like the Venezuelan/China oil- you posted from 'logic' it seems. Logically Venezuela would sell as close as possible to minimize shipping costs. However, reality (the bane of the true believers) is different.

People are naturally anxious.

Security ranks above all human emotions except food. Even love and hate. These 'lazy' people you refer to are probably bored or underutilized- management's fault! People need challenges.

Most people work small businesses involving a good deal of physical work. 40 hours + is the norm, it isn't new stuff here.

I've worked both ends (office and open field). Both have their pluses and minuses. The people I've worked around have not been prone to goofing off (mostly) although I agree there are many that do. This is one of the functions of management

Venezuela has many reasons for wanting a buyer other than the U.S.- and to get the next bad-boy (China) as a buyer is too tempting to pass up. China has a lot to offer to other than military power. Non-interference in local affairs (a big plus), investment incentives NOT tied to World Bank or International Monetary Fund -

ATS south America thread
ATS Bushonomics thread
and many, many more. American workers are the most productive in the world- get that? Productive. Increasing productivity only comes from enhancing the workplace. Not new chairs and stuff- challenging work increases productivity.

Charity works? I disagree. Assistance with a purpose works. Teach someone to fish. Socialism is what? Society banding together. If we forget the least of us, who will remember the best of us?

Rich people- tax breaks- give me a break.

Taxes should start and gradually increase as a percent. This way the better someone does the more percent they pay. Let's face it, a person can only use so much gas (hence gas tax) yet society has provided avenues for the rich to become rich. By increasing their support for society the door for others opens a little wider.

3rd world countries- wonder why they are like that? Could outside interference have anything to do with it? Some countries are always going to be poor- it is a function of nature. Yet, many others are kept poor by outside forces.

Natural resources are the reason many countries are kept poor.

Yugoslavia, Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro are the recipients of massive aide-



The EU is by far the single largest assistance donor to the Western Balkans as a whole. Since 1991 and including 2001, through its various aid programmes, the European Union has provided more than € 6.1 billion, while for the year 2001 over € 845 million has been made available for the aid programmes - Phare, Obnova and CARDS.








Nicaragua, one of the hemisphere's poorest countries, faces low per capita income, massive unemployment, and huge external debt. Distribution of income is one of the most unequal on the globe. While the country has made progress toward macroeconomic stability over the past few years, GDP annual growth of 1.5% - 2.5% has been far too low to meet the country's need. Nicaragua will continue to be dependent on international aid and debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. Nicaragua has undertaken significant economic reforms that are expected to help the country qualify for more than $4 billion in debt relief under HIPC in early 2004. Donors have made aid conditional on the openness of government financial operation, poverty alleviation, and human rights. A three-year poverty reduction and growth plan, agreed to with the IMF in December 2002, guides economic policy.

Just two examples of place that are poor and will remain poor. The Balkans have wealth beyond counting and the Europeans are grabbing it through brides and aide. The U.S. stumbled and will end up with small bits.

Nicaragua has nothing to offer anyone. There are plenty of poor workers in the world and bananas grow in lots of places.

Enough of this for now- as to education and drive. Knowledge is important. Action is more important. Without knowledge action often is wasted or misdirected. Some of the least educated make up for their lack of education with drive (action). If you want to call this social Darwanism then fine- next street gang that rampages a neighborhood is nothing more than a new breed of wolf? For every 'new species' you could name I can find their nemesis in the existing world.

Under your name it says to 'fight the machine'- just doesn't 'click' with what you've posted. Neo-cons believe a lot like your postings.

Anyway, I'm just a social Neanderthal- the world awaits 'the new man'

Next time you see someone in the gutter remember that by sheer circumstance it isn't you
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Under your name it says to 'fight the machine'- just doesn't 'click' with what you've posted. Neo-cons believe a lot like your postings.

Yes, they do. But KKK members are Christian. Does that make them a good example of a Christian. So were the Nazi's. I am conservative, but an isolationalist conservative. Forcing democracy down peoples throats is not my bag. Personally, I was disgusted by the reason for the past two military actions, but it is classic US policy. Strictly military threats and never for human rights violations. WWII we ignored the concentration camps and we still do today with DNK.

We will rush into a country if it has WMD but never if there are people being slaughtered by their own ruler...and people say that Christians have a choke hold on America! They do actually, it's just that they are just as bad as those they bash. I feel that the greatest threat to America is not our economy or work place conditions or even minimum wage. The greatest threat is disease, poverty and other things that fall through the cracks in the government sidewalk.

Prgms like "no child left behind" and other meaningless programs take away from ones that do more good. If Federal Regulation of Education, Agriculture and even Major League Baseball (yes, the MLB recieves funding by the governement.) were cut then programs like disability, social security and others would have the funding they need to bear the burden of a population imbalance.


Congress Funds DC baseball stadium

Quote: "But KKK members are Christian."

Correction - You mean WANNA-BE Christians! Racist Killer Klansmen & Nazi's are not REAL Christians! That does not Jive with the Holy Spirit - understand?! REAL Christians are Compassionate & Understanding & Tolerant & Accept Diversity!

Originally posted by Seraphim_Serpente
Quote: "But KKK members are Christian."

Correction - You mean WANNA-BE Christians! Racist Killer Klansmen & Nazi's are not REAL Christians! That does not Jive with the Holy Spirit - understand?! REAL Christians are Compassionate & Understanding & Tolerant & Accept Diversity!

Next time read what I posted: Does that make them a good example of a Christian?

I did not say that they were. I was making the statement that you cannot judge a book by its cover.

Conrad I 'hear ya.' Cheap shot on my part about the machine name- sorry, I just wanted to fire you up a little

Now you're hot- good. See, 'the machine' wants us to be loners, in things just for ourselves. This 'dollar under fire' is not in the 'machine's' interest. The lower dollar allows for increased American made goods- (high labor and all the rant) to flow out. Low dollar is good for exports.

Now the balance of payments may suffer, but that's another part of the issue. Check out ATS thread about half way down. I have listed some 'arguments' and sources dealing with trade and capital goods.

Capital goods are the strength of America yet most have no clue what they are. As long as exports of these goods stay strong the weak dollar will suck (like a vacuum) U.S. funds back.

What I am afraid will happen though, is that more Fed tweaking will result in increased interest rates and thereby enhance investing instead of buying in America. This will take years, so short term America is safe.

Give a good crop failure in China and the current state of affairs will change. Otherwise, quickly rising oil/gas prices will stifle economic growth and further harm the present situation.

Sorry I took so long getting back to you Conrad, reality does have its call. Look closer into the weak dollar- it may not be as bad as you currently believe.

I also believe the Chinese and Europeans will pressure the dollar up- a weak dollar hurts their exprts.
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I understand about reality calling, spring break made me slack so i gotta step it up on the books now. However, that is one thing that people are forgetting. Southeast Asia is having a major drought at this point, Congress voted to start oil drilling in Alaska (which environmentally is not that bad especially for elk), and people have to realize that it is not good for a lot of nations to totally snub the dollar (i.e. Canada our main trading partner).

Greenspan is the most powerful man in America, however you've gotta watch how this man plays his cards. He was one of the few voices of reason during the 90's. That's why people I knew avoided Internet companies with no earnings and invested in the bonds. When 2001 rolled around it was there that the money flowed too.

Personally, it is not wealth that corrupts the people, it is the love of wealth. There are many kind hearted rich who earned their benjamins starting in the lower heirarchy. Rich people do not sit around and conspire to screw over the poor. They figure ways out to make more money for themselves. People who do think that there is a Rich/Poor conspiracy, need to compare notes with H. Clinton about that whole Right Wing thing. I can just imagine it...Hannity, Coulter, Bush, Buchanan, and other right wingers (though a lot are Neo Cons, not True Conservatives) sitting around a table deep within the bowles of the White House plotting how to continue their take over of the government. NWO anyone?

Back to the topic however, The dollar like all other things in the world goes through phases. However I feel that the biggest mistake the US made currency is not with modern times, but back in the days of the New Deal and the destruction of the Gold standard. The Swiss still have it and look at how stable their economy is. Low growth is better than collapse, boom, collapse.

Originally posted by CAConrad0825
. . . the Gold standard. The Swiss still have it and look at how stable their economy is. Low growth is better than collapse, boom, collapse.

Like comparing a frog to an alligator- the U.S. is so much bigger than Switzerland and the dynamics different what works for one certainly won't work for another.

The Gold Standard is too inflexible. How would a country go into massive debt?

That is another thing we should have taken care of a long time ago...debt is not a freebie that the US can ignore. However the gold standard could still help the US. What is a dollar worth? We have no control over our currency. It's a like a sports car with no breaks, so what if it goes from 0-60 in 3 seconds, how do you slow down for the turns?