Is this Huge Storm going to be Hurricane Erin?

originally posted by: Phage
Yes, most models have the low pressure system you're talking about developing into a tropical depression over the next 5 days. Some show the possibility of it turning into a tropical storm. Almost all of them have it turning north into the mid-Atlantic. Too early to tell what might happen after that.

But the extent of the low pressure area does not indicate the size of a depression, storm, or hurricane which may develop.


tropicalatlantic.com...

Awesome graphic Phage, and your correct. I corrected my above post.
Now what do you think will happen when the HUGE low above it (which by the way is turning S by SE) joins 91L?
Please review my other thread (or is it a post?) here; www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Violater1

I was thinking about my other thread:

That's what happens with similar threads that are too similar to warrant.

$h!t..will you stop with the salt bro?

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: Violater1

Don't know anything really about storms, but that time lapse link you posted is cool as hell!

Thank you
Here is another one:cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov...

a reply to: Violater1

Now what do you think will happen when the HUGE low above it (which by the way is turning S by SE) joins 91L?

It won't. It's moving east quite rapidly and losing strength, being eaten by the high pressure area. It will be gone within 72 hours.
ocean.weather.gov...

a reply to: Violater1

That one is a bit far north to be a threat to the US. Those usually go straight north not hitting anyone. NOAA only gives it a 40% chance for development.
Another storm just off the cape verde coastal area which is further south has a 60% chance for development. I'd watch that one more. Thats the area where the big ones form this time of year.

a reply to: Phage
I hope your right (don't get me started :-) ).
However this GEOS video (updated q 15 min) and photo show them closing in on each other.
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov...

a reply to: raedar

Thats another depression NOAA is giving that one a 40-60% chance for developement.
Sept is the height of hurricane season in the atlantic area including the gulf and Caribbean.
This looks like a typical september set up.

a reply to: Violater1
Additional graphic.

If all of this comes together, it will be the perfect Huge Hurricane!
I pray it does not.

The next name will be Fernand. Tropical stormbErin already formed and dissapated this year.

a reply to: Violater1

Not very likely.


That mild low pressure area you're worried about, the one that is dying, is located at 38ºN, 40ºW.

Here in the UK we tend to get the dregs of the storms and hurricanes you received, at much lower strength levels. It all depends on where the jet stream is placed. Currently, it is right over the UK covering the whole landmass, streaming at around a 100 mile an hour west to east.

It is the jet stream that steers all your storms towards us here in Britain, so we tend to hope that the jet stream loops wildly towards extreme north, as that draws the hot weather up from the Med and Africa. The geological placement of Britain gives the land mass a unique weather situation. There are always three weather systems competing for dominance over Britain at any time, and the positioning of the jet stream tends to determine which system wins the day.

We have a east to west weather system bringing the cold air over from Siberia, we have the Atlantic system (west to east) which can bring both good and bad weather, but generally a lot of precipitation, and we also have a south to north system which brings us the good weather.

Dorian looks interesting as it may well only scratch the US coast and end up under the jet stream to be driven towards Europe and the UK?

a reply to: elysiumfire

It is the jet stream that steers all your storms towards us here in Britain, so we tend to hope that the jet stream loops wildly towards extreme north, as that draws the hot weather up from the Med and Africa.

You have cause and effect reversed. The jet streams are the result of conditions in the lower atmosphere. The northern jet stream forms where cool polar air meets warmer temperate air. It is this interface which "steers" (and forms) northern storms as well as producing the jet streams. While jet streams can transport moisture which gets taken into them, they do not cause weather. But they do make very good signposts for showing where that interface occurs.


www.weather.gov...

From my understanding the hot air from equatorial regions rises up into the atmosphere and moves north and south, depending which side of the doldrums the rising air is.

As you suggest, this northwards moving hot air meets with southward moving cold air and where they interface jet streams form. For the north the stream tends to move west to east, but often loops wildly and even break up and then reform, anything under the jet stream is influenced to move along in the same direction.

Of course, the jet stream is not 'causal' of weather (I don't think I said it was, nor implied to be) just that it can steer weather by influence of motion. For instance, the east to west weather system of cold air can only gain dominance over Britain if the jet stream loops very south of Britain, which allows a southward movement of cold air from the north, there is no resistance to the movement, ie, such as the jet stream.

a reply to: elysiumfire

but often loops wildly and even break up and then reform, anything under the jet stream is influenced to move along in the same direction.

No. The location of the jet stream is determined by what happens below it. The kinks and bends form when arctic air masses move into temperate air masses (and vice versa). It is also these intrusions which cause storm systems.

The steering is not caused by the jet streams, they are far higher than most weather. As I said, moisture which is carried that high can be transported by the jet streams but this is not the case with storm systems. They occur at lower altitudes.

For instance, the east to west weather system of cold air can only gain dominance over Britain if the jet stream loops very south of Britain, which allows a southward movement of cold air from the north, there is no resistance to the movement, ie, such as the jet stream.

Again, you have caused and effect reversed.

a reply to: Violater1

Actually, Erin already formed as a small tropical storm out in the Atlantic and dissipated while we were all busy watching Dorian. It was never a threat to any land. the next Atlantic storm will be Fernand.

Phage:

The location of the jet stream is determined by what happens below it.

You are not quite as accurate as you think, Phage. Yes, landmass and the earth's spin play a part, but all along I have been discussing how the jet stream determines the UK's weather, which it does. I also stated that the jet stream can steer weather towards the UK not directly, but as an indirect influencer upon the motion of weather beneath it, but it depends on the strength of the stream. Of course, there are other variables at play, but I suppose I should direct you to the following.

Summary of the Jet Stream and the weather it creates:
The position of the jet stream over the UK determines the type of weather we experience.
If the polar front jet is situated significantly to the south of the UK we will experience colder than average weather.
If the polar front jet is situated to the north of the UK we will experience warmer than average weather.
If the polar front jet is situated over the UK we will experience wetter and windier than average weather.
If the polar front jet has a large amplification then cold air will travel further south than average and warm air will travel further north than average.
The direction and angle of the jet stream arriving at the UK will determine what source of air (i.e. cold, dry, warm, wet, from maritime or continental sources) the UK experiences.

www.netweather.tv...

a reply to: elysiumfire

If the polar front jet is situated significantly to the south of the UK we will experience colder than average weather.

Yes. Because arctic air moving south causes the location of the jet stream to move south. But the jet stream does not cause that to happen.

If the polar front jet is situated to the north of the UK we will experience warmer than average weather.

Yes. Yes because warmer air has moved north, causing the jet stream to move north.

The polar jet stream forms above the interface of the arctic air mass and the temperate air mass. When those air masses fluctuate the jet stream fluctuates. The greater the difference in temperature between those air masses, the greater the speed of the jet stream. The jet stream makes a good marker for where that interface is, as well as its shape (that's why TV weathermen like to talk about it so much), but it does not cause warm weather nor does it cause cold weather. Ed O'Toole seems to have fallen into that same trap of reversing cause and effect. It's a very common misconception.

Contrary to popular belief, the jet stream does not "cause" weather conditions of a certain type to occur. Its existence is instead the result of certain weather conditions (a large temperature contrast between two air masses).

weatherstreet.com...

Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The winds blow from west to east in jet streams but the flow often shifts to the north and south. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air.

www.weather.gov...

a reply to: Violater1

Another handy site to watch...........i suppose,

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu...