How stable is China

Thirty years ago if any group demanded change, the CCP would just go in and finish the opposition off. But is this hesitation on the border of Hong Kong a sign of maturity, or a sign of a nagging problem. Traditionally China was a country from the northern plains to the Yalow river, run by the Han people. The rest is conquered territory of Empire, with diverse language groups, diverse ethnic groups, which have very little loyalty to the ruling Han, who have organised them into an efficient labor force, they might have been loyal in the old days when the revolution was young and had high ideals. But now we have a Han Emperor in Beijing, the same system as before, the one that China favours for the many years of its existence, although Communist in name only, we also have a post industrial phase where the peasants are returning to the villages, where the promise of prosperity has just caused an inconvenience to the flow of an agrarian village life.
The Emperor demands that Taiwan comes back into the fold, he also demands that Hong Kong follows suit, while having to control the Muslims on the far western borders, he has had to devalue the currency, not a great sign as traditionally China works best isolated and far from foreign interference , where foreign ideas cannot upset the harmony of a well worked out social structure. Also a 5G face recognition system is in place in many cities along with a social score card, any deviation from the State propaganda is quickly dealt with by police. Which to sum it all up these are the actions of a failing state, trying to keep control when the tide of time has changed once again. The question is, will the cost of Empire be to much, and what in the last fifty years has been perceived as China return to an historical norm.
This is the real history of the State, and if it were a racehorse then following its past form, the effect of a collapsing China on the world economy might well be a Black Swan little considered.

Large pockets of China, millions of people, don't speak Mandarin. Many different languages. China is more of a sham country in that regard. I don't think they have a national grade school system either or didn't last time I checked. At one point they had the largest naval fleet in the world, invented gunpowder, the compass then just shutdown. Probably because of all the tribal infighting. They didn't turn the corner geopolitically until they cleaned up all the junk boats and trash out the rivers which was blocking shipping and trade.

My spouse went there for work a few years ago. She was told not to eat out in town. Only a select few restaurants were recommended due to no regulations. They have almost not regulations on anything. There was some global summit about to happen when she was there so they shutdown all the factories so the smog would clear. Unbelievable really. They are suppose to be a global super power but can't eat at most places and the air and water quality is some of the worst on the planet. Frightening but nothing can be done about it. They are like some massive ant colony or Borg that can't be controlled or slowed down.

Cool thread subject, huh

Right now the U S and China are the same, we're counting on the populous to keep spending or it's FRIGGIN OBLIVION

Sorry, oh.....73 percent in the U S and 76 percent in China...is the pie section labeled consumer spending in the two best of friends gone twonky beam

All new start up industrial productions have a smoke in the air curve....bell curve....they have 30 more years and nothing can help.....it's a famous pollution from industrial music venues.....no....from industrial bourgeois wanna be....curve
Stuff like that, yeah.

a reply to: anonentity

Probably more stable than the United States. The former communist country still has a strong serve the people mentality. In this country it's about screwing the worker for the most possible profit. If you interpolate the advances of wealth inequality in this country it's just a matter of time before wages will not be inspiring enough for people to make an effort at working. I just think the laissez faire part of laissez faire capitalism is going to cause the US economy severe decline as more and more wealth in concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. The workers never have enough money to spur enough economic growth to sustain itself. Something really bad is going to happen eventually.

originally posted by: anonentity
But is this hesitation on the border of Hong Kong a sign of maturity, or a sign of a nagging problem.

Don't underestimate the Chinese dictatorship's resolve to brutally repress any threat to their authority. Over the next couple of years the ring leaders and other activists in Hong Kong will be hunted down and disappear. The Chinese apparatus for internal repression is no longer tanks on the streets, but propaganda, surveillance and the intolerance of difference, coupled with an absolute disregard fro human rights.

On the stability of China. Well, as a human experiment in controlling the masses and turning the population into robots, China is a success. Whether the country will survive an economic downturn is moot, but as time goes by and the Chinese become increasingly controlled, I think 1984 is the new stability in China.

a reply to: paraphi


I came across a really good but hard to follow interview with an exiled Chinese billionaire, who claims that the CCP, are a Mafia incarnate. The only reason that he is alive, as opposed to the Alibaba billionaire founder and a few other big shots, is because he managed to get political asylum in America. Among the points that he makes, are that Hong Kong is the way the internal RMB can be exchanged for dollars, that the Chinese Banks are involved in massive money laundering which is used to enrich the high ups in the CCP who are now billionaires themselves. That if a trade war deal is not worked out with China the CCP has about two years left before the economy explodes. According to him if a Chinese citizen makes it to the top, if he doesn't look after the top officials, he literally gets wasted. Plus that the top leadership is now worried about internal collapse and doing everything that they can do , with regards to removing potential threats using 5G before they get to big

a reply to: anonentity
Kudos. Watched this vid a few days ago, it's short and much easier to understand with all the graphics.
Maybe another important question is what is China? What does it stand for? I'm not defending socialism but if the Chinese elites has to govern almost one and a half billion people in an area about ten million square kilometers, an autocratic government is best to control the population. Imagine if a segment of the Chinese workers are allowed a protest strike, say the truck drivers in a major port or if Muslims, Christians and other religions are allowed to practice their faith and every Chinese citizen free to express their every opinion?

I remember a quote from Lech Wałęsa, first president after the collapse of Soviet controlled Poland, being a former electrician he made the analogy that it's easier to tighten the screws than to loosen it, it is from loosening the screws that most of the time he breaks the screwdriver.

As paraphi said, never underestimate your opponent, Sun Tzu wrote that thousands of years ago, if anything, they still deserve our grudging respect.