A (Possibly New) Idea About Why Extraterrestrial Neighbors Are Not Coming To Greet Us

Thanks, OP - love these thought-experiments!

Unfortunately, most of us have no way of validating any of these great, and quite disparate theories. The variety of opinions about it is a wonderful reflection on our humanity, though -is it not? Humans are certainly "creative", if nothing else...

Thanks OP, for tossing this idea up there, although I'd submit that the premise is not all that new and has been broached on many occasions not just here at our venerable forum (whereupon ignorance is denied), but in myriad venues, publications, pseudo-science documentaries, and popular culture (e.g., sci-fi media).

It is always worth spending the time re-exploring it, however, and it is new in the sense that we get a glimpse of popular opinion (though one might argue our ATS-er collective opinion may indicate bias – not unexpectedly, eh?). So, for what it's worth:

IMHO, Alien life exists but is not nearly as ubiquitous as most assume. Instead, it is not the technology, space travel, time-space molecular quanta, or other limitations, but rather that there just are not that many “neighbors” to come and visit.

For one thing we’re quite remote, in a galactic spatial perspective, and space travel, though not insurmountable, is still expensive and resource-intensive.

Consequently, those that do visit, if they visit, have made a serious and deliberate commitment to be here – and are here with a purpose. They didn’t just stumble upon us, and they are definitely NOT disinterested. We are very, very special “ants”, indeed.

Why are we so special? Why the clandestine secrecy and shrouds of mystery regarding these visitors? Why don’t they just show themselves -to all of us – already??

My theory: Although life (biological life as we would recognize it) exists in many places in the Universe, it is a genuine struggle against incredible odds to emerge, evolve, develop, thrive, sustain, and advance through technological stages a sentient species capable of leaving their home world.

Although such sentience and development is exceedingly rare, the sheer numbers of possibilities in the Universe, and simple probability theory, mandate that they’re out there. And I believe there must be several such societies in our galaxy alone, although I do not think there are nearly the numbers that some have been tossing around (a la C. Sagan, et al). Side note: the Drake equation is pretty much all BS - the unknowns are such a wild guess it makes the entire equation all but meaningless (-but at least it makes people think about their place in the Kosmos! - so thanks for that, Frank!).

So where does that put us?

In a very, precarious situation. Here’s why:

I believe that our planet, the Earth, is actually very, very special in various ways we do not yet understand and certainly do not appreciate. But others do!

We are living on a literal, extraordinary, planet-size Garden of Eden. And we don’t even know it!

If you put together ALL of the variables that would need to come together in order for our beautiful blue-green jewel of a planet to become our home, form life, thrive with myriad species of plants and animals… Just a few: stable weather and climate systems, thick atmosphere rich in perfectly-proportioned chemicals, perfect habitable zone orbit around a stable 8-billion-life-span star, a giant, oversized-moon to steady axial wobbles, a spinning iron-nickel-rich core that creates an enormous magnetic field to deflect harmful radiation, enormous quantities of water (swept up in the early formation of the solar system) with the perfect temperature ranges to create clouds/rain/oceans/glaciers, plate tectonics to drive volcanic out-gassing and rearrange land masses, which creates weathering and erosion (soil)… Well - the list goes on and on.

The point is – they are here because we are an amazing, phenomenal, incredibly rare and beautiful laboratory of life busily interacting among millions of disparate species on a water-soaked, gaseous and mineral-rich world.

They are here to study us.

My guess is that they’ve been here (or nearby) for a long, long time. There are probably several species involved, and they likely have an agreement among them to not intervene (i.e. the “Prime Directive”). I wonder who is "in charge"...?

A logical staging/tactical/observation/operations/lab base would be on the optical limb of the moon as observed from Earth. Other than a few probes into the Earth’s atmosphere now and then to gather data and maybe a few lab samples -those are our UFO’s - they remain incognito. Under very unusual circumstances, setting down on the surface is sometimes necessary or unavoidable. But: contact with humans is highly undesirable and in nearly every instance strictly forbidden (yes, gubmint exceptions and abductions may be indicative of this).

They are not coming to greet us because:

#1) They have no desire to.
#2) They have no need to.
#3) They’re engagement policy forbids it.
#4) They’re philosophical purpose forbids it.

Will they ever come to greet us?

Yes. Their purpose here is NOT just to study us.




There is a second part to the agreement they have with each other: They will not allow humans to irreparably harm the Earth. If humans are stupid enough to kill themselves off – that’s one thing. If we self-annihilate, they may think we deserved it (and they may be right).

But they won’t let these tiny, belligerent, self-absorbed “ants” destroy the magnificent water-world they were lucky enough to emerge on. There is a line.

This is one reason they are so interested in our nuclear development (but somehow don’t seem as interested in our conventional warfare).


Just one theory – and it may be all wet. But I had some time to kill with my coffee this morning – so thought I’d share.

Great thread – thanks!

p.s. Go HomoSapiensSapiens!

originally posted by: Archivalist
Maybe they know that if they meet us, it would rob us of our creative and imaginative freedom, regarding life in the Universe.

If it turns out that there actually are aliens out there, the value of our own life goes way, way down. Supply and demand, and all that.

Miracle of Birth Happens for 83 Billionth Time

Maybe the reason they are not coming to greet us is because their
moms' taught them not to play with their food!

Get with the program people. THEY have been here for ages.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
Our first big mistake is to assume they think anything like us in any way. We keep infusing human ideals on a lifeform that would have evolved extreme different, more different than any other kind of life on our planet compared to us. Second mistake is to think "they are all over the place". Even though life most likely happens anytime conditions are correct if we look at earth, a planet that has had trillions of life forms over the last 4 billion years, and add in that the universe we know today is about 9 billion years old with the first 5 billion being mainly gas, how many species has gone to our moon in all of earth history?

One, us....

This is a logical fallacy. It likens back to the old Chisten Fundamentalist argument, that the odds of the big bang happening are so close to zero, it is indeed zero.

The first real mistake, is thinking aliens would think drastically different than humans. I mean, humans already have quite a wide gamut; we go from Einstein to Ted Bundy, stay with me though. The number 1 thing that separates us from other beings on this planet, is our Problem solving skills. Yes, circumstances change, but the foundation does not. We know it's theoretically possible for a life form to be Methane based; however, even if it is; it's not terribly different than something that is carbon based. It's a set of circumstances, with it's own context and parameters. The actual process of problem solving is a constant. We actually find the more we study, that all life can problem solve quite well, and even Bees and Dolphins can do advanced maths. The only difference between us and a dolphin is our physical body... I.E. A circumstance.

Aliens, should they exist, will appear to be very similar to us. Unless you think humans are going to be drastically different 300 years from today, or that we were 300 years in the past. The only thing that changes is circumstances.

The same can be said on an individual level when looking at one person to the next. The difference of Ted Bundy to Einstein is all circumstance.

Same reason anyone is successful. Take someone who isn't, swap shoes, and they will be and you won't. It's really that simple. A perfect case and point is our news item about Jenner, who is the first "Self Made" billionaire. *Yawn.* It's like saying Trump is a self made millionaire. If my dad had the money Trump's dad did, I could do it too. To open a store, you need enough to buy or lease the building; purchase your first stocking items, register a phone number and pay for advertisement, get insurance, and cover the cost to pay your employee[s] until money comes in. In other words, in order to do ANYTHING on your "Own" you cannot do anything on your own. You require Loans and banks and arrangements, which will be determined by who you know, how well you know them, and what their bank accounts look like.

For instance, I wanted to purchase a property valued at 980k, for 1.3 million; my credit was good enough to qualify for the loan, but I needed 20% of the loan down; you also need an influx of cash flow that can cover the loan outside of what you normally do for work. However, the property I was trying to buy generated 117,600 a year, so it literally would have only taken me 10 years to pay down that 30 year loan. If the bank gave me that money, it was as sure fire as sure fire ever gets; so much so, that the bank told me had I came in for it before 2008, they would have given it to me. The federal government added some regulations to loan agreements that are mandatory nation wide; and one of those is the 20% down and the cash flow; despite the fact that it was a commercial building and I'm already managing it for 5 years and have never had a single vacancy or eviction. Giving me the money to "purchase" it, would have instantly given me the cash flow.

If I was Donald Trump, I'd have gotten it.

originally posted by: SRPrime
This is a logical fallacy. It likens back to the old Chisten Fundamentalist argument, that the odds of the big bang happening are so close to zero, it is indeed zero.

The logical fallacy is when you start to add discriminators to what life is instead of just saying life in general. life happens we all know that, but if I suggested that life will be a 1000 pound purple flying hippo with 6 eyes I'm now reducing the odds that the life form I'm suggesting is actually out there. This is what we do when we suggest an intelligent, physically capable of building space fairing race. You are now dictating what that life will be.

The first real mistake, is thinking aliens would think drastically different than humans. I mean, humans already have quite a wide gamut; we go from Einstein to Ted Bundy, stay with me though. The number 1 thing that separates us from other beings on this planet, is our Problem solving skills. Yes, circumstances change, but the foundation does not. We know it's theoretically possible for a life form to be Methane based; however, even if it is; it's not terribly different than something that is carbon based. It's a set of circumstances, with it's own context and parameters. The actual process of problem solving is a constant. We actually find the more we study, that all life can problem solve quite well, and even Bees and Dolphins can do advanced maths. The only difference between us and a dolphin is our physical body... I.E. A circumstance.

The term life is actually a human construct, who says another life form even sees "life" as we do? Pretty much all life on our planet is related so once again, yes, there will be similarities.

Aliens, should they exist, will appear to be very similar to us. Unless you think humans are going to be drastically different 300 years from today, or that we were 300 years in the past. The only thing that changes is circumstances.

This makes no sense.. Why would they look like us?

They will evolve completely different in a totally different environments... All life on earth we see today is related back to about 600 million years ago...

The same can be said on an individual level when looking at one person to the next. The difference of Ted Bundy to Einstein is all circumstance.

Same reason anyone is successful. Take someone who isn't, swap shoes, and they will be and you won't. It's really that simple. A perfect case and point is our news item about Jenner, who is the first "Self Made" billionaire. *Yawn.* It's like saying Trump is a self made millionaire. If my dad had the money Trump's dad did, I could do it too. To open a store, you need enough to buy or lease the building; purchase your first stocking items, register a phone number and pay for advertisement, get insurance, and cover the cost to pay your employee[s] until money comes in. In other words, in order to do ANYTHING on your "Own" you cannot do anything on your own. You require Loans and banks and arrangements, which will be determined by who you know, how well you know them, and what their bank accounts look like.

For instance, I wanted to purchase a property valued at 980k, for 1.3 million; my credit was good enough to qualify for the loan, but I needed 20% of the loan down; you also need an influx of cash flow that can cover the loan outside of what you normally do for work. However, the property I was trying to buy generated 117,600 a year, so it literally would have only taken me 10 years to pay down that 30 year loan. If the bank gave me that money, it was as sure fire as sure fire ever gets; so much so, that the bank told me had I came in for it before 2008, they would have given it to me. The federal government added some regulations to loan agreements that are mandatory nation wide; and one of those is the 20% down and the cash flow; despite the fact that it was a commercial building and I'm already managing it for 5 years and have never had a single vacancy or eviction. Giving me the money to "purchase" it, would have instantly given me the cash flow.

If I was Donald Trump, I'd have gotten it.

I disagree with just about everything you wrote here...lol and you are kind of rambling from the topic. Once again trillions of life forms on earth in the last 4 billion years and only one made it to the moon...

We don't even know if intelligence at some point becomes a bad trait and the species kills itself. Evolution does that all the time..wipes out bad traits and good ones carry on...

a reply to: Xtrozero

Once again trillions of life forms on earth in the last 4 billion years and only one made it to the moon... 

Only one has made to the moon so far, that we know of...

I bet some bacteria and other critters made it too, if only inside our moon lander or indeed our astronauts..

a reply to: Archivalist

Nah they dont visit us because earth , well the majority of earthlings are egocentric worst #s
and we simply cant be a part of a greater galactic community because we are just not that nice !

we do not live in symbiosis with our home planet
so why would we live in symbiosis with any other species , if we already dominate every other form of life on earth

Perhaps they can't?

Why is it always assumed that they are so far ahead of us when it comes to tech?
Perhaps we are the "Advanced civilization" and the others are still in the stone age.

Of course this also depends on whether or not there are other lifeforms, intelligent or not, out there.
I certainly hope that's the case, but will in all likelihood never find out before my time here is done

Conditions in the galaxy appear to have been favorable for at least a billion years before our solar system formed. The odds of our civilization being the most advanced one are vanishingly small.

Intelligent life is just another phenomenon that the universe has produced. We find that if a phenomenon exists, there are usually many examples of it. We used to think that planets were rare; that they were caused by stars sideswiping each other in space. We now know that planets form routinely when a star does. It could very well be the same with intelligent life.

There are probably a multitude of examples of intelligent life in our galaxy. Why don't they visit us? Perhaps they are visiting, but we just fail to realize it.

They wouldn't necessarily just burst in on us, all at once. They could be learning about us quietly, and gradually revealing themselves to us. This could be intended to avoid causing us shock and social disruption when we are confronted with the fact of a technically superior civilization, made up of reasoning beings in unfamiliar physical forms.