December 2018 Job numbers look great

The numbers are out and they look really good.

This is the strongest employment report of this economic cycle -- hands down. While we've seen greater job gains in some months, the plus-300,000 number along with another increase in average hourly earnings clearly signals that the economic expansion ended 2018 on strong footing. Perhaps most surprising was the two-tenths rise in the unemployment rate due to an increase in participation. It's one month of data, but talk of the Fed cutting rates in the near future should be off the table for now.

...

It wasn't just the scorching payrolls number, but also the average hourly earnings print, which jumped by 3.2%, higher than both the November 3.1% and the 3.0% consensus; in fact it was the highest number since April 2009!

www.zerohedge.com...

So we have very low unemployment rates, records for some demographics, jobs are growing faster than anticipated, and wages increased the most since 2009.

All good signs that should be praised.

However, as the article I linked shows, this seems to make it likely that the Fed (which should be eliminated) will end up raising interest rates again. Of course this is a good thing for the overall economy as zero interests rates prop up bubble economies and are bad and discourage saving, but it will frighten investors in the stock market, causing a drop.

Although the stock market is an indicator of how the economy is doing, it is a weak one. So much shadiness goes on their and it only represents a small part of the economy.

Yet Trump made the mistake of attaching himself to the market as an indicator of economic success, and now it puts him in the paradox of having great economic numbers that will result in the stock market declining.

My advice is dont be fooled by the stock market unless it brutally crashes, and lets keep looking at other metrics for economic success, jobs, wage growth, success of small businesses and the middle class.

a reply to: Grambler

That is excellent and all, but what KIND of jobs? December is usually temp/seasonal jobs. IE low paying store peeps handing out perfume samples to lazy men shoppers(like me).

originally posted by: lakenheath24
a reply to: Grambler

That is excellent and all, but what KIND of jobs? December is usually temp/seasonal jobs. IE low paying store peeps handing out perfume samples to lazy men shoppers(like me).

I agree it requires a more nuanced look.

But I think the fact wages also went up the most in almost ten years, and the number of jobs expected probably included temp in their expectation, and yet it still exceeded that.

But you are right to want to dig deeper.

Lots of jobs out there especially for older workers. My wife and sister have had someone contact them this week and it's a 3 day workweek. The wife 8 more miles to drive and double the pay sister about 20 more miles and double the pay.

Looking good for those that want to work!!

a reply to: Grambler

I hate Stats! But it looks like unemployment was up as well. Possibly due to an increase in eligible peeps. I am digging for the real report that shows the actual unemployment rate. The one that includes eligible peeps but they refuse to work after their bennies ran out.

data.bls.gov...

a reply to: mikell

That is cool...where and what industry if you don't mind me asking.

Awesome! But you know, Trump didn't make that happen....



Obama did.

But unemployment went up to 3.9%.

Totally agree!!
Stats can be used to prove anything 83% of all people know that.
I work in finance and I can filter an excel report to show whatever results I want to see . Unemployment rate might be down once u discount those getting disability/shared income/zero rate contracts etc and wages might be up if u disregard inflation, cost of living and only include "full time employees earning since x....
Stats Schmats

a reply to: lakenheath24

a reply to: zinqaltel

Someone should explain these numbers to the masses

The US dollar sure looks better then the Euro

originally posted by: zinqaltel
But unemployment went up to 3.9%.

The labor participation rate is going up, has been for a few months. Chronically long term unemployed are starting to go back to work.

www.forbes.com... 0

Suppose I should put a link for that claim.
Manufacturing saw the greatest increase...
IMAGINE THAT.
Maybe President Trump is on to something eh? I've been watching participation rates for a few decades, those numbers are how they lie to you about the unemployment rate, the number of non-participators hasn't gone down like this in as long as I have been watching it