The China-U.S. trade war thread.

a reply to: sdcigarpig

www.wsj.com...

originally posted by: makemap

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: nwtrucker

I was thinking the other day if the general economic system of Planet Earth was better before China was engaged by the west. To be honest the Chinese have destroyed so many of our jobs over here in the UK and the communities that go with them that it just makes one wonder................ would we all be better off if China didn't exist?

Your an idiot for thinking that. Who do you think supported Green tech industries. It was freaking China and Canada. The oil companies are still fracking US internally. If China wasn't there, US would not have gotten out of the coal age. It was the West that refused to change technology because they had an advantage over everyone else militarily just like China didn't change technology when they thought they had the best technology then cannons.

China balance the play field against US corrupt policies since the fall of USSR. US is as equally worst when it comes to destroying the planet, but unlike China having lots of people buying a lot of stuff. US was destroying the planet technologically through warfare and pre-planned agendas to poison our food industries.

Whole communities have been destroyed across all the western world by devious Chines economics. Around here we have had factories closing down on a regular basis that existed for hundreds of years to supply the local European market. So a few rich folk made a lot of dosh by switching production to asia................. Well good for those individuals buyt what for the average man in the street who has seen his community ripped apart by off shoring and no real hope of earning a proper living doing a proper job anymore. Whole generations of kids expecting no hope of proper work and stuck on benefits and idle times where alcohol and drugs fill their time, then the general decline in the local community. So a few businessmen can make extra dosh

China quite simply doesn't play it fair and things have gone too far their way. As a Brit I admire Trump for trying to address one of the modern day wrongs in global trade that most western leaders daren't take on. Good on him

originally posted by: Irishhaf
China has their own issues, its silly to think we have no leverage in this case.

Trump made a lot of promises on the trade issues we face this is his attempt to get china to the table to talk, we made the opening move now china has countered at this point we have to stand firm. China has run roughshod over us for decades it is past time we review the arrangement.

Odds are much more likely we will posture, then they will posture some more and once honor is satisfied both sides will sit down and iron out some of the issues. This will not 100% fix the problem, but it sure would be nice to see a slightly more balanced playing field.

....and a better player in that field. Good post I agree.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

There was no doubt that a segment of the posters would be largely supportive of maintaining the current 'system'. While it was the Big Internationals and their crony capitalism that led us in this direction to begin with, there has been many smaller investors that have used the same system for their own benefit over the years. No, not a crime. Business is business.

Yet we've seen in those posters counter points 'facts' such as China's over exports into the U.S. is only three per cent. That massive inflation and economic woes will result. Not impossible, more likely a question of degree than anything else.

None of those posters have offered an alternative solution in any form whatsoever. None even acknowledge the manufacturing job loss. The industrial base that is down to almost nothing. All of which, IMO, is telling. I can only assume they couldn't care one whit.

If, in fact, there is so little 'Chinese' steel imported into the U.S. and the Chinese gov't controls both the volume and direction of external exports, then it would be next to nothing, be it financially or diplomatically, to reduce, stop or sell their steel into the U.S. at a competitive rate.

It would be easy for them. Yes?

However, they respond with a much longer list of potential U.S. items they could retaliate with. Now ceding that I'm neither very smart or well educated, that suggests to me that WSJ link is completely accurate.

That the trade war has been ongoing and initiated by China and their intent is outright domination.

Hopefully I'm wrong and China does make adjustments to it's policies. Otherwise Trump will double down. He has my full support on this issue.

originally posted by: olaru12
Trump isn't sitting in a position of strength, China is...

America imports around 20% of it's goods where china is in the high 80's. America has always been in a position of strength. We created this global economy after WWII to contain the Russians and we crushed them. We can do the same to communist China if we so choose. They should feel lucky the tariffs are only on steel and not electronics. Tired of buying cheap Chinese crap that ends up in a landfill in less than a decade.

It looks like United States and China are arriving at some type of agreement to keep China from ripping us off so badly. The markets responded very positively to the news today.

originally posted by: carewemust
It looks like United States and China are arriving at some type of agreement to keep China from ripping us off so badly. The markets responded very positively to the news today.

Hmmm, a petro-yuan? Does that look like an accord to you?

More like...fight's on....

a reply to: nwtrucker

And this is news how? When it comes to trade, countries never play fair, that goes back far longer than the USA has been around. Countries often protect home products or seek to influence other countries economies. China controls its currency, it manipulates it and ultimately will adjust it as need be, to keep it viable. And it does it in a strategic way.

So the first was Trump puts on the tariff, and China responded in kind. Then when China will manipulate its currency, thus making its goods and services cheaper, thus increasing its trade with other countries, slowly starting to pick up on what the USA is not getting. And these tariffs will have a broader implication as they could affect other countries, all of whom are not going to be pleased by this and are considering putting tariffs on the USA. Thus the USA is not getting the support it needs to win this war, when the very countries it needs to support it are hurt by the very policies sought against China in the first place.
digg.com...

a reply to: nwtrucker

History is what all is showing this to be a bad mistake. China is not going to sit idly by while the USA is trying to dictate to it about policy, without some kind of counter action. And what all experts agree is that the USA should not go at this alone. At one time the USA did have a strong manufacturing base, which has dwindled down to where many of the companies that did make things no longer do in the USA.

Many cities and towns, in rural areas were left desolated from the loss of such jobs. Even now, there are a few stories of what that looks like, when the only employer closes up shop and leaves. It devastates the local economies and ultimately causes an economic vacuum. And these tariffs that the President is suggesting will not just hit China but other countries, the very countries the USA is going to need, if this turns out to be a trade war. And when those countries are affected, the first thing that they will do is complain. The President has shown and it is noted that he lies on trade, even to those who are the closest ally of the USA.

www.vanityfair.com...

Do you think that they will believe him or even be willing to talk, knowing that it would not be in good faith? Chances are that they will turn around and give warning and then raise equal tariffs on the USA, thus causing more problems. And as much as many would like to think, the USA is going to need strong economic allies to win a trade war, and so far that is not happening.

From the very start of the the Global markets and the US Markets are taking this very badly, starting to lower time and time again. The indicators in the USA, the Dow Jones is losing at a slow rate, with very little gains. if this continues and the markets keep losing money, Trump may have to rethink and stop this, before it gets too bad.

a reply to: sdcigarpig

'History' doesn't have many Trump's to draw examples to. He doesn't 'back down', he doubles down.

Politically, he's in no position to back down. Credibility becomes an issue.

Yes, you've made your views known. China does what it does. Anything Trump does will only worsen it. Gotcha.

I humbly suggest that's not whats going to happen. But then. that's just me.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

You can keep blaming China for everything, but those drugs have been boycotted many times by the caused of FDA non-stop drug war. Majority of the alcohol is your own country fault. I don't see that many Rice wine in US compare to other Western alcohol. It is also called celebrating too early. I'm not sure if college/High school still do that allow kids party with alcohol. Who the heck works drunk in a factory anyways?

a reply to: nwtrucker

Yeah, well here is the other detail that I don't think that any one is expecting. The US needs to borrow about 300 billion. Now normally it would look to China that would purchase such. However, if I was in charge of China, I would say no, and not lend such to the USA. And in fact, I would put out the economic waves to where the USA may not be able to get that money and would be forced to back down, due to a lack of revenue coming in.

That in itself would have the biggest impact on industry, if the creditors to the US simply refuse to lend any more money.

originally posted by: sdcigarpig
a reply to: nwtrucker

Yeah, well here is the other detail that I don't think that any one is expecting. The US needs to borrow about 300 billion. Now normally it would look to China that would purchase such. However, if I was in charge of China, I would say no, and not lend such to the USA. And in fact, I would put out the economic waves to where the USA may not be able to get that money and would be forced to back down, due to a lack of revenue coming in.

That in itself would have the biggest impact on industry, if the creditors to the US simply refuse to lend any more money.

That scenario completely ignores the interrelation of the three currencies. Mess with the USD and China kills the equity of the T-bills for their own yuan. The Yuan and the USD would both go down.

It's not happening. That act would be the opening move that would lead to a shooting war. One that both would suffer from and the U.S. could recover from far quicker due to food and energy reserves.

Sorry, but you underestimate both Trump, the U.S. and it's regional allies. Something that China completely lacks, allies.

I wonder if Vegas has odds on this....

a reply to: nwtrucker

A shooting war over what, China no longer desiring to do as much business with the USA, when businesses do the exact same thing?

So China decides not to lend the US any more money, that is not grounds to go to war. It decides to exercise the fine print in all of the US company contracts, that too is not grounds to go to war. In fact how is what China could do, any different than say Walmart coming into a city and running all other competition out?

The regional allies, are going to be a bit more cautious as they are seeing that China has been slowly modernizing its military. Even the Philippines are being careful, and had to do the unthinkable, invite those it does not like back into its country.

But if the USA starts a shooting war over economic issues, other countries, even allies are not going to rush in to aid the USA.

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

originally posted by: Irishhaf
China has their own issues, its silly to think we have no leverage in this case.

Defaulting on the debt, thats not what I would really call leverage.

More like a dead mans switch / doomsday machine.

Its not defaulting. if a nation like china attacks us their debt we owe them is null and void.

Unless it's all in escrow like the iranian monies obama gave out.

Did he give them the interest, Too?

originally posted by: burgerbuddy

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

originally posted by: Irishhaf
China has their own issues, its silly to think we have no leverage in this case.

Defaulting on the debt, thats not what I would really call leverage.

More like a dead mans switch / doomsday machine.

Its not defaulting. if a nation like china attacks us their debt we owe them is null and void.

Unless it's all in escrow like the iranian monies obama gave out.

Did he give them the interest, Too?

if i read correctly all debts are null to said country that attacks a debtor.

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: burgerbuddy

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

originally posted by: Irishhaf
China has their own issues, its silly to think we have no leverage in this case.

Defaulting on the debt, thats not what I would really call leverage.

More like a dead mans switch / doomsday machine.

Its not defaulting. if a nation like china attacks us their debt we owe them is null and void.

Unless it's all in escrow like the iranian monies obama gave out.

Did he give them the interest, Too?

if i read correctly all debts are null to said country that attacks a debtor.

I wonder how much hillary owed gaddafi

a reply to: sdcigarpig

You avoid the interlapping of the currencies. Fiat backed by IOUs, backed by more fiats back by further IOUs.

One goes down, they all go down. Your house of cards. Now if a move by China that resulted in the collapse of the USD, it would, rightly, be an act of war, your denial notwithstanding. China has stated numerous times -preTrump- that economic moves would be treated as an act of war by the Chinese gov't.

I would point out that those regional allies have no alternative but to remain steadfast in their alliances with the U.S. as a loss by the U.S. largely leaves them with China completely dominating the region.

Every comment you post is designed to block any possible move by the U.S. as resulting in a 'negative' for the U.S.. Implying China has already won.

I highly suspect you don't really believe that, at all, and actually fear that the U.S. would survive and win a tete-a-tete between the two. I trust your motives not in the slightest.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: sdcigarpig

You avoid the interlapping of the currencies. Fiat backed by IOUs, backed by more fiats back by further IOUs.

One goes down, they all go down. Your house of cards. Now if a move by China that resulted in the collapse of the USD, it would, rightly, be an act of war, your denial notwithstanding. China has stated numerous times -preTrump- that economic moves would be treated as an act of war by the Chinese gov't.

I would point out that those regional allies have no alternative but to remain steadfast in their alliances with the U.S. as a loss by the U.S. largely leaves them with China completely dominating the region.

Every comment you post is designed to block any possible move by the U.S. as resulting in a 'negative' for the U.S.. Implying China has already won.

I highly suspect you don't really believe that, at all, and actually fear that the U.S. would survive and win a tete-a-tete between the two. I trust your motives not in the slightest.

Nailed it.

a reply to: sdcigarpig

Psssst. China makes a lot of "stuff". Some of it is junk. And most of it won't sell at home in China because their workers aren't paid enough to afford them.
Guess what they need... A YUGe market for their goods. They need that giant market (US) more than the US needs to buy their "stuff" from China. It might take markets and industries a few years to realign, but we'll be just fine.
They've threatened to place tariffs on US goods now. Guess what... That's a spit in the bucket to our economy. We don't produce any single product that relies on the Chinese market. Would it hurt? Some. And they already have a massive protectionist policy toward our imports. It's part of the reason for this colossal trade imbalance, and the US tariffs on steel, solar, et al.
Given that the Chinese economy has been stagnating the last several years (despite massive influxes of hard currency [$] due to our YUGE trade imbalance), I'm willing to bet they'll see the light and come to the table to make a deal that is beneficial to both parties. Or they won't, and we're in for some short-term pain until realignment, and China's in for some somewhat longer term pain. Either way is better than watching our industrial base crumble and handing the Chinese the cash to build the stick with which to beat their neighbors (and citizens) into submission.