Hurricane Irma strengthening in the Atlantic

a reply to: carewemust

The north turn is not forecasted for another 14 hours or so. The short wave trough that will erode the ridge is apparent on the WV loop over Mississippi.

Sure the models underestimated the ridge and Irma is further south than originally forecasted but that does not mean it will miss the trough and keep going WNW.

All the models show a north turn. On this 'spagetti' graphic the far west plot is the CLP5, a purely statistical model.

originally posted by: dreamingawake

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: dreamingawake

originally posted by: carewemust
Cnn headline... irma barrels towards florida!

Fake news king. They cant help themselves.

Sure, it's CNN but what is fake about that? US and Euro hurricane centers show projections of it hitting. Rush Limburger-cheese evacuated after saying Irma was fake news.

They omitted the word projected.

"Barrelling towards florida" is a lie.

Fake headline.

Then what is it doing?

You know I wish it would so it wouldn't affect people, my family and friends are all in the path.

Seems to be a little too late for much of a turn due to it's size: see here

She will turn but noone knows when. Nws will not admit the difficulty with predicting when any hurricane will turn sharply. 0 experience.

But they will admit , with tears, as the turn becomes further delayed.

a reply to: jrod

Keep in mind that imperfect but arrogant man makes all the models.

Will look forward to seeing the range of excuses on tv tomorrow morning. Entirely new population will need to prepare.

Good night.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: jrod

Keep in mind that imperfect but arrogant man makes all the models.

Will look forward to seeing the range of excuses on tv tomorrow morning. Entirely new population will need to prepare.

Good night.

They make money whether it affects the state or not, as does the media and grocery stores. I hope it goes away, but at this point there barely any getting out if it doesn't-last flights already left, less gas, won't be help for closed bridge areas, etc. People believing it was fake news, staying in the surge areas, etc, might have put their lives on line.

a reply to: carewemust

Yes they do. The NHC does mention the difficulty of timing and predicting when a turn will occur in their discussions. What often happens is the storm will slow or stall before making a turn.

It is the TV mets who are generally arrogant with their forecasts/wishcasts.

As of 5am its moving WNW at 12 mph. Pressure is up to 930mb, winds are officialy 155mph, but i think that generous.

Recon data supports maybe 130mph winds, but the fear of the NHC is if theybreduce the official wind speeds to much, it will give the layman a false sense of security that the storm is rapidly weakening.

Irma will continue to weaken until she pulls away from from Cuba.

a reply to: jrod

Irma will continue to weaken until she pulls away from from Cuba.

And then...and then.

Somewhat good news, the storm will encounter shear in about 24 hours. This will help prevent significant strengthening....if the shear occurs as forecasted.

The latest NHC discussion:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

The eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north coast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary
data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the hurricane has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced
to 135 kt, and this may be generous.

The initial motion is now 285/10. Irma is moving along the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to weaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the southeastern United States. The track guidance is in good agreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would take the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida
peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn
northwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the
aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed only
slightly since the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast track follows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the
coast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and near the Florida West coast. It should be noted that because of the
hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move
onshore.

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about 24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the
southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of
inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a
life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all
actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow
evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

a reply to: jrod
Nah. Can't happen. Not gonna turn north.
We have an expert meteorologist telling us that.

He knows all about ridges and troughs and what steers storms and stuff.

The models were all wrong about Harvey too.

Started getting bands last night. Just off and on all night. This westward track certainly helps me on the east coast, but doesnt bode well for Tampa and the surrounding area, and I don't think the left coasters were expecting to go this far west.

a reply to: KnoxMSP

That's what they get.


For being on the the left.

So I hope everyone got out of FL... I worry that people are still stuck on the roads trying to flee.

I think we need new evacuation methods & plans to move people quicker. Perhaps... giant airships and cruise ships (going in the other direction) and giant aircraft carriers and planes and trains and... that way the evacuation is spread out and not everyone is all trying to leave the same way at the same time... all piled up at the gas stations and all leaving on the same path becoming a gridlocked parking lot. Each family taking their individual vehicle(s) when a mass transit method would likely be much faster and more efficient. 5.6 million people in FL trying to leave...well not quite that many as we know some folks stay behind. Seems we could of improved on our evacuation plan efforts by now.

I suppose that is just too much $$$$$$ to even consider when the damage from the storm alone is going to already cost a-lot of money.

leolady

originally posted by: leolady


I think we need new evacuation methods & plans to move people quicker.

I'm going to disagree. The reason being that we, as people, are far too reactive and not nearly proactive enough. Instead of designing better ways to leave, I think what we should be focusing on is designing better buildings allowing us to stay. Think of the two greatest threats during a hurricane, wind / wind damage and water. Now think of what type of structures could deal with both simultaneously, probably something round and something in short order that could be water tight or mostly water tight up to (n) height. But you're right, things always boil down to cost.

a reply to: leolady

Economic considerations are a big factor. People chose to take their vehicles because simply they can't afford to replace them. It's bad enough their homes/apt's will probably be destroyed but to have no way to get to work afterwards?

Been watching this closely for a week now and I can't fathom some of the evacuations being put in place late on Friday.
It just puts thousands on the roads too late to get anywhere but stuck. It just blows my mind. Having to get a couple of states away to miss the worst of the storm is just shocking. Something most people have no frame of reference for.

This picture demonstrates it best.


twitter.com...

a reply to: namehere
I hope this gets to you in time.

There should be a special needs shelter close to you and they should be able to accommodate you.

If not call one of these numbers. Someone should be able to help you.

TAMPA, Fla. - As Hurricane Irma strengthens in the Atlantic, many Florida residents are taking every precaution to help them prepare for the potential impact the storm may have. Saving emergency phone numbers is one way to make sure you're ready.

The State of Florida Emergency Hotline has been activated 24/7. For up to date information regarding Hurricane Irma, call 1-800-342-3557.

In order to find a hurricane shelter close to you, you can text the word "shelter" and your zip code to the number 4-F-E-M-A or 4-3-3-6-2.

Text FLPREPARES to 888777 to receive updates from the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

If you live in the City of Gulfport, residents can reach the Informational Call Center at 727-893-1000 from 8 a.m. - 8 p.m

Before you go to a shelter, always check with your local emergency management agency to make sure it's not full.

Note: Texting FEMA is not a substitute for calling 911.

If you would like to report price gouging, call 1-866-966-7226.

Additional emergency numbers include:
Florida Emergency Information: 1-800-342-3557
Emergency referral line: 211
FEMA Registration: 800-621-3362 | 800-462-7585
Florida Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services: 800-435-7352
Elder Affairs: 800-963-5337
Florida Insurance Claim Hotline: 800-277-8676
Unemployment Claims Emergency Hotline: 800-204-2418

DUKE CUSTOMERS: To report outages you can text OUT to 57801 (standard text and data charges may apply.

You can also call the automated outage-reporting system at 800.228.8485

TECO CUSTOMERS: To report outages you can text OUT to 35069. You can also call 1-877-588-1010.

Sumter County Citizens' Information Line at 352-569-3190.

Hurricane Irma: The emergency phone numbers you need

Look like a low Cat 4 now
Linky

a reply to: Caver78

Mass evacuations are a big mistake and they came way too early. Those that really need to evacuate haven't been given enough notice and those forced to evacuate earlier have clogged up the routes. Houston mayor will be fully vindicated after the Irma fiasco.

My area has a 3 pm curfew and we are not likely to see any flooding or winds above 50 mph. Total BS.

Furry evacuees arrive in Kentucky. Bless their hearts. Forever homes and foster homes will be needed far and wide.


Reports continue, with time running out, of very long lines at shelters for people in Florida. All are in our thoughts.

a reply to: sligtlyskeptical

Another concern to me is money.
IF it is true most folks do not have $500 saved....how do folks least able to evacuate do so?
Motels ain't cheap.
Food on the road ain't cheap...you can only pack so much.
Not everyone has friends or family.

IF you could plan ahead, camp grounds are an option....but probably not for many.
Are there shelters away from the storm path for evacuees???

Where DO people go to evacuate?

a reply to: namehere
I see you are in Oldsmar. Well sir, I am in Tampa. I am located in zone E and therefore not expected to require evacuation. I would be more than willing to assist you. Do you require someone to transport you to a safe location?? Most of Oldsmar is within zones A-C .

I am going to be doing my best to keep the neighborhood streets cleared up and cutting away trees that fall on peoples houses. I am only about a good ten - fifteen minutes from you. Seriously, if there is anything I can do for you just ask me. I have a vehicle that seats 7 comfortably. My family is already in place and the disaster plan is active. Were good.

I am spending today ferrying people around who have limited means of transportation. I will check in on here periodically, so reply or send me a PM. I know Oldsmar fairly well enough, I frequent the flea market, the park by the water, FAOIS, and occasionally catch the water skiing show at the lake.

Anybody in Oldsmar on the south side of Hillsborough avenue is vulnerable to very high waters. If you are on that side and need transportation, please tell me ASAP! Its still a mostly clear sunny day today, so if the more people I can assist today the better.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: jrod

Keep in mind that imperfect but arrogant man makes all the models.

Will look forward to seeing the range of excuses on tv tomorrow morning. Entirely new population will need to prepare.

Good night.

Excuses started yet?