A 2 part time-of-day UFO study proposal that I'd like some feedback on.

Can we infer some significance and cause from UFO sightings when reviewed by time of day and specific demographic or group? - A 2 part study proposal that I'd like some feedback on.

There has been a healthy amount of study of the possible significance of the time of day that UFOs are commonly seen at. The typical peak of UFO sightings is from around 8 pm to midnight, and this stat is derived from many hundreds of reports over the decades. (It would not be an exaggeration to say thousands, with CUFOS having well over 200,000 sightings.) This paper by V.J. Ballester Olmos (www.academia.edu...) is one of many papers illustrating this time statistic. There is a paper on a time-series analysis (drive.google.com...) that was done to determine if UFO sightings correlated with the positions of certain stars and planets. And of course it's always a concern that if UFO sightings are common at night, it's because misidentifications occur easily in darkness. I'm considering another approach.

Part 1
Pilots are great witnesses of UFOs, because not only are they in an ideal position to see them and are considered trained observers, they are also able at times to pursue and interact during a sighting, something that isn't easy for a ground observer. Pilot sightings can produce enough information to consider a sighting unidentified or potentially anomalous. These sightings can often yield high quality information.

Statistics show that UFO sighting peak is from around 8 pm to midnight, and that's from many many years of analysis and a large amount of reports, so it's a good figure, except that those reports contained in the data set can and have contained less confident and reliable information, and often contains misidentifications.

I want to commit to a study that shows the times of pilot sightings, and see how it may differ from the general time statistic.

Part 2
To take this a bit further, it makes me think it might be worth breaking down sightings based on the times they are seen by specific groups, such as industry, agricultural/rural, power production, ocean transport, and metro center residents, for example.

What times do military folk see UFOs while on duty? What times do civilian cattle ranchers see them? Since we group them all together so often to produce our general time stat, maybe if we separate them based on a different rubric we'll find a different distribution of time. As a less creative example, what if military personnel commonly have UFO sightings during the day and civilians commonly have them at night? This method of pattern searching isn't much different from what we've been doing since the beginning.

I'm about ready to purchase UFOCAT-2009. Likewise, if anyone has access to any relevant literature or materials, I'd appreciate a link.

I'm not very educated on this subject, but if you haven't already looked into it, check out the 37 th parallel information regarding the cattle mutilations.

Ufonut.com has some info on it.

Just my 2 cents.


After thought : Your op concerns the time of sightings,. How would that tie into celestial mechanics? I.e.- alignments and such.

a reply to: Natas0114

After thought : Your op concerns the time of sightings,. How would that tie into celestial mechanics? I.e.- alignments and such.

It is suggestive of a correlation with sidereal time, but it doesn't hold up very well, Jacques Vallee and Sturrock did some writing on it. If you want some reading, here you are:

"Time-Series Analysis of a Catalog of UFO Events: Evidence of a Local-Sidereal-Time Modulation" - P. A. Sturrock
(drive.google.com...)

"Are UFO Events related to Sidereal Time? Arguments against a proposed correlation" - Jacques F. Vallee (drive.google.com...)

And thanks for the tip, I'm pretty familiar with the mutilations phenomenon.

a reply to: duforrak

It's encouraging you're starting with CUFO's material. As far as reference material you may additionally need I'd say dig thru IssacKoi's posts he posted tons of material with links to UFO papers you just can't find alone.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Next up I'd ask Zaphod where to look for pilot reports. You know, the lesser known ones or forums not generally known but frequented by aircraft pilots? Or google those as well?

I'm guessing by the massive amount of data already out there this is going to be a thankless time consuming job for you? But hey! Good luck!!!

a reply to: duforrak

I'll comment on only one aspect of your concept. Pilots may be excellent witnesses, but they, as a group, learned long ago that you do not report a UFO sighting. That is the standard rule for commercial pilots. Lesser pilots have pretty much followed that rule because basically there is no "reward" in reporting a UFO sighting. The media may do a local piece on it, but it simply is not a wise, career move for any pilot to publicly acknowledge a UFO sightings.

a reply to: Caver78

You rock. Thanks for those many tidbits.

a reply to: Aliensun

I'm aware of the detrimental professional stigma that goes along with that. NARCAP seems to do a great job in working with pilots, and I suspect their resources will be helpful.

I also have another project related to rural pilots and airports in Alaska. The FAA is responsible for the management of UFO reports, but there are over 500 airstrips in the state of Alaska not covered by the FAA blanket, and I have a mailing list to send letters to all of those airstrips. Hopefully that will yield usable information for this newer time of day study.

I wrote a bit on it here: drive.google.com...

a reply to: duforrak

Very nice paper!
You did leave out the part about how the info will be used, how long you intend to hold it, who you'll share it with ect.
I'm pretty sure you'll get a better response if that's addressed up front.

I have always had great luck late Wednesday nights/early Thursday mornings during the week of the new moon. 23:30 to 04:00. If you track some of the more widely known sightings such as the Jan 2000 Southern Illinois sightings, they seem to fit this time-frame. Seems like the prime time for Military to be out testing their new toys?

a reply to: Caver78

Oh, that was simply an earlier proposal, there is much more project documentation now than that paper.

originally posted by: Natas0114
I'm not very educated on this subject, but if you haven't already looked into it, check out the 37 th parallel information regarding the cattle mutilations.

Ufonut.com has some info on it.

Just my 2 cents.

After thought : Your op concerns the time of sightings,. How would that tie into celestial mechanics? I.e.- alignments and such.

Good advice.....mutilations are directly related to abductions....nice correlation....the 37th paralell is a magnetic conduit they follow...like a current......there are thousands and thousands of craft up at any given time...no way to make many correlations wih sighting patterns...give me five million and the people I need and I will build you one.....lots of people own craft now.Anyone can build one just by using online data sources.

a reply to: duforrak

Good luck! I'd like to assist if anyway possible?

a reply to: CircleCityGhost

I'll send you a message!

Jacques Vallee was one of the first to run UFO reports through a computer to determine if there were any patterns. He concluded that UFOs were generally seen most:

* In October
* On a Wednesday
* Around 10 pm
* Along state lines and rivers.

This seems to suggest that most UFOs are either man-made or they are at least familiar with our human patterns of behavior and the way our states are set up.

a reply to: Blue Shift

That may have been his original results, but I have papers from studies by Sturrock, Olmos Ballester, Vallee, Teodorani, and others that go even further than that original study.

If you are interested, I can link you some good papers.

originally posted by: duforrak
If you are interested, I can link you some good papers.

No thanks. I think the overall gist is that the data for "real" UFOs is so contaminated with hoaxes, military, and misidentifications that it's very difficult to discern a workable pattern.

a reply to: Blue Shift

Yeah, you're not far off