Trump Would’ve Beaten Obama In 2012

Wow, Trump would have beat Obama in 2012. Obama took 66 million votes in 2012, and Trump took 59.5 million so far. But the electoral college is where our representative republic works for the states.
Of course this is a go back in time scenario.

This story goes into great detail. It goes to show that the old play book of name calling and "doing it for the children" may finally be over so we can get to the adult conversations.

It’s easy to glance at Tuesday’s popular vote — which, with 92 percent of all precincts reporting, shows Hillary Clinton with six million fewer votes than Barack Obama won in 2012 – and reach the conclusion that Clinton lost the White House because she failed to turn out the Democratic base. But the truth is much more complicated.

While she underperformed relative to Obama’s 2012 totals in several Midwestern states — Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin — Clinton ran virtually even with Obama in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. What’s more, she far surpassed Obama’s 2012 vote total in Florida, the country’s biggest swing state. Yet somehow, while Obama carried Florida, Clinton lost it.

Which brings us to an important question: Was Donald Trump just good enough to beat a bad Democratic opponent on Tuesday, or does he deserve far more credit? Could he, for instance, have competed with the vaunted Obama machine? The answer, somewhat shockingly, is yes. A review of vote totals in the past two elections reveals that Trump 2016 would have defeated Obama 2012 in the electoral college

. (Disclaimer: This obviously is an apples-to-oranges exercise because no two elections are the same, nor are any two electorates. Still, unlike debating whether the 2016 Cubs would defeat the 1927 Yankees, this is not an entirely abstract argument; a comparison of their respective performances in the country’s most competitive states shows Trump edging Obama in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.)

The math might seem impossible.
After all, Obama won nearly 66 million votes in 2012; Trump is currently at 59.5 million and should finish around 60 million, which will actually be one million fewer votes than Mitt Romney won. How, then, could Trump have topped Obama in the electoral college? The answer: Republican turnout lagged in certain parts of the country but shot through the roof in the nation’s most critical battleground states.

Let’s look at them individually, in descending order by population, and do the electoral-vote math. The 2016 totals aren’t yet final because not all precincts have reported. FLORIDA — 29 EVs — 98 percent reporting Obama 2012: 4,235,270 Clinton 2016: 4,485,745 Romney 2012: 4,162,081 Trump 2016: 4,605,515 Conclusion: Trump beats Obama by some 370,000 votes and wins Florida. (Note: Clinton herself won 250,000 more votes in Florida than Obama did in 2012.) PENNSYLVANIA — 20 EVs — 97 percent reporting Obama 2012: 2,907,448 Clinton 2016: 2,844,705 Romney 2012: 2,619,583 Trump 2016: 2,912,941

Conclusion: Trump squeezes past Obama by a margin of some 5,000 votes and wins Pennsylvania. (Note: Clinton runs about 60,000 votes behind Obama, but would’ve had more than enough to defeat Romney in 2012.) OHIO — 18 EVs – 94 percent reporting Obama 2012: 2,697,260 Clinton 2016: 2,317,001 Romney 2012: 2,593,779 Trump 2016: 2,771,984

Conclusion: Trump edges Obama by roughly 75,000 votes and wins Ohio. (Note: Clinton’s worst battleground state showing was Ohio, winning 380,000 [!] fewer votes than Obama.) Stop right there and crunch the numbers: Florida (29) + Pennsylvania (20) + Ohio (18) = 67 EVs. Romney finished with 206 EVs. By protecting all of those, and then taking 67 from Obama, Trump would hit 273 and win the presidency. The question: Did Trump 2016 defeat Obama 2012 in all of the states Romney won? Yes.

Here’s a look at the competitive ones: – NORTH CAROLINA (98 percent reporting): Trump 2,339,603 … Obama 2,178,388 – ARIZONA (73 percent reporting): Trump 947,284 … Obama 930,669 – GEORGIA (93 percent reporting): Trump 2,068,623 … Obama 1,761,761 – UTAH (78 percent reporting): Trump 360,634 … Obama 229,463 A review of the Romney 2012 states confirms that Trump, in this hypothetical matchup, would have carried every single one against Obama.

It doesn’t matter that Obama would have trounced Trump by nearly 300,000 votes in Michigan; by more than 200,000 in Wisconsin; by 175,000 in Virginia; and by 160,000 in Colorado. It’s similarly meaningless that Obama would have narrowly defeated Trump in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The 44th president carried all of those states in 2012, and in this hypothetical contest, he would successfully defend all of them. But it wouldn’t be enough.

The electoral college would produce a razor-thin margin: Trump 273, Obama 265. Again, this is an apples-to-oranges exercise. It’s impossible to know how the Obama campaign might have targeted certain voters in a contest against Trump, or whether Trump would have the same success in the three big battleground states against a more formidable opponent. But that’s not the point here; the point is that it’s not entirely fair to blame Clinton for depressing Democratic turnout when she ran even with him in five of the country’s most competitive states and ahead of him in a sixth, Florida, the single biggest swing state — and still lost the electoral college.

Read more at: www.nationalreview.com...

Not if the IRS blocked all of his supporters.

Four years ago nobody would of beaten Obama.

He weaponized all government agencies.

Hence, the worst President ever.

a reply to: seasonal

Trump would have beat OBAMA in 2008 also, if Obama was a White guy!

a reply to: seasonal

Now you made me think about all those wasted years.

a reply to: seasonal

If, if, if...... If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle.

a reply to: eluryh22

If, if, if...... If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle.

Ok

I have to disagree with the OP.

I voted for Trump, reluctantly, as did many others. Many (most?) of us just knew that after the last 8 years, this republic was so eroded by policies of shameless, destructive intent, that a Hillary presidency would surely put us on a path that we would never, ever return from. We were terrified for our country.

In other words, Hillary only lost because she was so despised by so many. I really don't think Obama was that hated, or I guess a better word would be feared. Plus, he had the race card which you can bet would have been an Ace, running against Trump.

Now, if Assange had released Obama's emails...

a reply to: GoodbyeBlueSky

I get it, It was definitely is a time machine scenario. Raw numbers, and no consideration for the different moods of the nation.

originally posted by: GoodbyeBlueSky
Now, if Assange had released Obama's emails...

I've got a sneaking suspicion those'll be coming out November 18th.

I hope there are some early indictments come January.

Trump was right: "Mitt Romney Choked"

Wow, what a great article/revelation...

And thank jeebus the Founders foresaw the knaves and their tendencies and instituted the electoral college...

Perhaps the most genius thing in a long line of brilliance written into the greatest governing document ever written, the US Constitution!!!

Long live the new President, Donald J Trump!!!

-Chris

I've got a sneaking suspicion those'll be coming out November 18th.

I hope there are some early indictments come January.

a reply to: Snarl

It will be mesmerizing watching the whole thing going down.