Why Polls Were Off

There were early reports last year of pollsters tossing out data that looked fooey or they just didn't like it. It also appears (can't prove it) that people like Nate Silver were applying pressure to pollsters to pad stats. For one, he would give bad ratings to polls that actually turned out very accurate in the end and great ratings to ones that towed her line. Can't throw out data when polling unless you want to paint a particular picture and make the otherside feel dejected and defeated at all times.

I knew those polls would be way off because only .09% even pick up the robo call. Basically almost everyone hangs up! And look at Trump supporters, do they honestly look like people that would be eager to take a poll? Of course not! They hate the media and politicians.

So a couple of things going on. 1. Shaping data into fictional data and 2, unable to understand what 99% of robo calls are thinking and do not care what the hell they think. Call somebody else and make it look right or you don't get paid.

They were talking about polls on ABC. A pollster said o the show that scientific poll data isn't as accurate anymore because they are taken from user with landlines and they are becoming a thing of the past.

So even if poll data is stretched and/or fabricated it is only taken from Americans that for some reason still have a house phone.

Lol the polls are fictional stories to scare the population into voting for who they think will win! Every poll was just garbage to push the lefts narrative of being the winning choice and it failed hard tonight. CNN is going to be shown for the fake news site and propaganda news site they are. Its a new world one without the blinders "news channels".

Don't underestimate the effect the FBI investigation had 8 days before the election, I think if you see polls before that Hillary was on top and after that there was a trend where trump was gaining terrain.

a reply to: LifeMode
Another factor may be the way left-wing politics has become a religion, with an inbuilt sense of moral righteousness. This may have the effect (it's been noticed in Britain) that polling is unconsciously skewed into underestimating the right-wing vote.
The mechanism is that the left is constantly promoting the idea that voting on the right is a morally wrong thing to do- "You should be ashamed of yourself". This doesn't actually deter people from voting right; it just deters them from saying so when asked.

originally posted by: StolidPanda
They were talking about polls on ABC. A pollster said o the show that scientific poll data isn't as accurate anymore because they are taken from user with landlines and they are becoming a thing of the past.

So even if poll data is stretched and/or fabricated it is only taken from Americans that for some reason still have a house phone.

They all have different modeling methods. Good ones use a shotgun approach and use landlines, cell, internet. Some of them talk to real people and pay them over the course of months to participate. Lots of different methods but phones, land or cell is the worse! It's just bad data. Internet polls were more accurate in 2012 but for some reason the media treated them like garbage. And those rural Trump folks that came out of nowhere like zombies, how do you even poll them with any method? They can wreck any election now if they get pissed off enough. Impossible to measure it. Maybe check the hits on Drudge and Breitbart weekly could capture some of them. Their viewership went through the rough and everyone IGNORED IT.

Three things...

A. You can poll via phonecalls, doesn't make sense anymore.

B. Ffs, stupid DNC... you and your bloddy oversampling bull#. (provable from emails)

C. When we are at this point where campaigns own or collaborate with polling companies, you will never get an accurate results, and it doesn't help either that the media was so obviously biased towards Clinton.

But I recall seeing online independant polls being more Trump friendly... pretty much all the time. Why? Because that's normal people from all walks of life, who has an internet connection. Now some polling company with a fixed database that has to give a certain result.

The internet is here to stay and thanks to Obama, more freedom like independant online polls will be more and more normal. Big fat bird flipped to established media. Seriously you suck!

originally posted by: LifeMode

originally posted by: StolidPanda
They were talking about polls on ABC. A pollster said o the show that scientific poll data isn't as accurate anymore because they are taken from user with landlines and they are becoming a thing of the past.

So even if poll data is stretched and/or fabricated it is only taken from Americans that for some reason still have a house phone.

They all have different modeling methods. Good ones use a shotgun approach and use landlines, cell, internet. Some of them talk to real people and pay them over the course of months to participate. Lots of different methods but phones, land or cell is the worse! It's just bad data. Internet polls were more accurate in 2012 but for some reason the media treated them like garbage. And those rural Trump folks that came out of nowhere like zombies, how do you even poll them with any method? They can wreck any election now if they get pissed off enough. Impossible to measure it. Maybe check the hits on Drudge and Breitbart weekly could capture some of them. Their viewership went through the rough and everyone IGNORED IT.

I see where. You are coming from.

They also used the term shy voter though.

Meaning they lied about who they were voting for because embarrassed or didn't want to share business.

Can't base data off of what a human says is the truth. We have way too many fallacies for that. Polls need to be scrubbed.

Polls are done after this, done I tell you.

The polls weren't off, they said exactly what the Hillary cabal paid them to say.
The fact that so many polls were needed to say the same thing to prop each other up should have been a strong indicator to any thinking human being that something was not right.

The polls were pushed and fiddled with by over sampling to try to push the election for Hillary.

It didn't work.

The news media needs to be cleaned up. The best way is to stop listening to them.

My favorite I saw was LA times predicting Clinton would ger 350+ electoral votes.

Facepalm.

a reply to: LifeMode

I heard it was because people dont have a fixed telephone line, english translation is bad..Mobile phone is the culprite

Any polling company that only samples voters from registered landlines is a polling company that is seriously obsolete today.

Why were the polls off?

My answer is because they were rigged. These polling companies knew the polls were in Trump's favor and they tried like hell to get Trump supporters to believe Hillary had it all in the bag.

I personally won 100$ this morning in a bet I made. yay!

Nope polls 100% squeaky clean, not a smidgen of corruption.

originally posted by: omniEther
Nope polls 100% squeaky clean, not a smidgen of corruption.

Not a smidgen!

a reply to: LifeMode

The way opinion polls are designed and conducted is flawed. When selecting subsets of individuals to estimate the characteristics of the whole population, they take no notice or lack awareness of the fact that these subsets are becoming more and more indistinct. Individuals have a tendency to be unique and there is not much common ground among those of the same category, especially in regard to their opinions.

You can argue the polls favouring a candidate either way though.

Polls putting Trump ahead harm him because more people turn out to vote against him.

Polls putting Trump behind harm him because Clinton voters think it's a done deal so don't bother turning out.

They were not off. They were dead on.

The polls used to sell a narrative sold that narrative. Clinton was up.

The polls that tried to be accurate were accurate. Trump was up +2 points.
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