Real time Facebook presidential poll shows a completely different story than mainstream media polls

originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: Greggers

True about the population size, my bad, I was doing back-of-the-envelope math and used the entire population because I knew that number and failed to remember not everyone can vote -- plus I didn't know the entire population of eligible voters and the sample size of 1069 would've captured the same voting split with 320M voters.

I could google it easy (probably will), but do you have an idea of the voter participation rate in Presidential versus mid-term elections? How about the cohort split (e.g. the number of persons over 18 that constitute the voting population) of eligible versus ineligible voters? Again, I can always google it, but I enjoy the conversation so it's more an attempt at extending the discussion...thanks in advance.

Every poll has their own special sauce. Unfortunately, no one knows for sure who will turn out. So they generally go from historical precedent.


Like, for example, older voters turn-out more often than younger voters. Also, the more education a person has, the more likely they are to turn-out.

Also, to your point, I think something like 15% more of the population turn-outs during Presidential elections vs. Mid-term. It might be closer to 10%.

We should start a petition to exile Clinton and company to say Libya..or Syria.Sounds fair to me considering.

As a veteran, I cannot vote for a woman or politician that caused American lives because of their incompetence. Trump has my vote. He can't mess anything up, that's already messed up as bad as it is. Clinton would be 4 more years of Obama policies that dont and didn't work. I dont agree with everything he says, but most what he says I agree with. He is a loose cannon at times, but he says what Americans been yelling for years.

a reply to: darkuniverse

someone should start a poll on ATS to see what way the ATS public sway, hard to know the truth these days, i never believd brexit would happen, primarily because of the human condition of fear of change, and i am sure HC will win, but i want trump, simply because he is crazy enough to go after the demon puppeteers of this world. TRump - change in my opinion, whether that change is pos or neg, may well be revealed soon enough.

originally posted by: Davg80
a reply to: darkuniverse

someone should start a poll on ATS to see what way the ATS public sway, hard to know the truth these days, i never believd brexit would happen, primarily because of the human condition of fear of change, and i am sure HC will win, but i want trump, simply because he is crazy enough to go after the demon puppeteers of this world. TRump - change in my opinion, whether that change is pos or neg, may well be revealed soon enough.

ATS poll would be rigged. Trump would win to start controversial topic.

Polls under reported the size of this Landslide WIN!

MAGA

We really need more information on this

originally posted by: Greggers

When Trump loses, will you come back and acknowledge that scientifically conducted polls use reliable methodology, while Facebook polls have no statistical relevance?

Since Trump won, can you come here now and acknowledge that practical data analysis is an art and not a science?

The assumption that any given set of data represents the system as a whole in it's entirety is what lead the Clinton campaign towards focusing their strategy on wasteful efforts.

There's always information within the system not presented in the statistics.

Since Trump won, can you come here now and acknowledge that practical data analysis is an art and not a science?

It's both.

The assumption that any given set of data represents the system as a whole in it's entirety is what lead the Clinton campaign towards focusing their strategy on wasteful efforts.

No argument there.

There's always information within the system not presented in the statistics.

Yep. The hardest part for any of these scientific polls to get right is the "voter turnout" part. That's where these polls are made or broken. In this particular case, the polls failed to predict the high turnout in general, and the especially high turnout of white, working class males particularly in the rust belt.

Although, it should be noted that Nate Silver had said from the beginning that there was more uncertainty in this polling cycle than in many others, and on the final analysis had Trump's chances of winning at 30%, which is nothing to sneeze at.

Also, worth acknowledging (although I've said it before) is that the facebook poll, while following no scientific methodology, was a good judge of voter enthusiasm among Trump's base, which is certainly part of what turned the election.

I thought I would drop a comment here as I was the one who conducted the poll.

I never expected it to go viral and to be 90% Trump and less then 10% Hillary and although it wasn't entirely accurate it's the only one I knew of that had Trump winning. I hope the person who posted in here earlier didn't actually bet 1 million dollars or they will have a long sad life.

Trump will be our president and I am cautiously optimistic about the future of our country. Although there are lots of question marks as too what direction our country will go with Trump apparently the people preferred they over what direction was clear we would go with Hillary.

Make it a Great Day. After all you have the power to do that.

Chad K