US Can handle Pakistani Nukes going to Extremists- Rice (?)

Was reading this dialogue between Sen. John Kerry and Condolezza Rice on the topic.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com...

Rice manages to duck the question effectively without giving a good answer.

But Seriously, if there's one place which has the greatest threat of Nukes being obtained by Extremists, it has to be Pakistan.

Musharraf arranged a Coup and overthrew the elected government. Who's to say that he can't be overthrown in turn by some Brainwashed Jihadis? They practically rule the streets in Pakistan anyway.

Now the questions -

1) What makes Rice think that we can deal with Paki Nukes going to Extremists?

2) Is she just bluffing? If she is, what would be the likely scenarios should someone call the bluff?

1. We can handle it by implementing marshall law after a nuke is detonated on U.S. soil, and increasing a thousand fold Bush's "mandate" to deal with terror his way.

2. Somebody may call Rice's bluff sooner than later, Pakistan, our buddy, is on both sides of the fence, while Musharraf may say he is cracking down on jihadists, the Pakistani military, just the other day, is believed to have provided cover shelling allowing militants to make their way into India.

Originally posted by 27jd
1. We can handle it by implementing marshall law after a nuke is detonated on U.S. soil, and increasing a thousand fold Bush's "mandate" to deal with terror his way.

Hmmm..... That's one scenario. But I was hoping that Ms.Rice meant something that could be done before the fact rather than after.

the Pakistani military, just the other day, is believed to have provided cover shelling allowing militants to make their way into India.

Militants? What Militants?? Once they cross the Border, they become Freedom Fighters (Never mind that they are paid Mercenaries)

But then again, Even If Paki Extremists did get their hands on the Nukes, India would have an immediate threat greater than the US.

Unless ofcourse they decide to sell them to their Buddies across the Border.

Originally posted by Vivek
But then again, Even If Paki Extremists did get their hands on the Nukes, India would have an immediate threat greater than the US.

Unless ofcourse they decide to sell them to their Buddies across the Border.

Not necessarily, a jihadist is a jihadist, and the U.S. is the holy grail for them. If they were to get a nuke, IMO, they would not waste it on India, they would want to get approval from their main man, Bin Laden, so they would likely filter the nuke through Al Queda and probably smuggle it through Mexico into the U.S. Not much we can do about it if it happens.

Well, I'll have to agree with you on that..But still is a pretty scary proposition.

Wonder what Condi meant by being able to deal with it. Guess she was just bluffing.

Supporting or condoning dictators is never a good idea and more often than not comes back to haunt you. Before the current government in Iran was there not a dictatorship that was supported by the US but was overthrown by the current government there? If the same thing happened in Pakistan the results would be disastrous and in any case, religious extremists or not the next government would not be pro US if the US was supportive of the dictatorship that once ruled their country.

[edit on 20-1-2005 by Trent]

Originally posted by Trent
If the same thing happened in Pakistan the results would be disastrous and in any case, religious extremists or not the next government would not be pro US if the US was supportive of the dictatorship that once ruled their country.

Even if the Pakistani Dictatorship was overthrown, the new government would have to be Pro-US, there's no other way for pakistan to survive on it's own. They hardly have an economy and whatever they do have is spent on the military (trying to keep up with the Jones').

There's a saying in Pakistan that for any Paki ruler to succeed, he should have blessings from the three 'A' s.
Allah, Army and America

It is pretty well known that the Paki Army has a mind of it's own and is the most influential force (political or otherwise) in Pakistan.
However, there very existance depends upon America's Goodwill.
So here's my 2c.
That is going to be their motivation to prevent Nukes going to the wrong hands. Because even they are smart enough to realise that should those nukes reach American Shores, the Paki Army will no longer have the importance that they enjoy in Pakistan. There may not even be a Paki Army left, should that happen.

Not to throw too much support for Dictator Musharaf but, amoung the ancient greeks, when an oligarchic government grew to corruption and excess, a tyrant would usually and hopefully take over the state. A tyrant or autocrat need not be 'evil'. Obviously, a transparent democratic government is prefered tho.

As far as the pakistanis being on the fence, this is true, however, its because they are divided. The urbanites in the south apparently aren't to wildly pro-radical islam, whereas the north, particualrly waziristan, is a completely lawless provincemade up of fundamentalist country tribes. The pakistani army doesn't even patrol it. Its, in a sense, its own little country.

Also, I'd think that, while the US is seen as a problem for fundamental islam, Hindus are the ancient paganistic enemy, so india might very well be a more 'sensible' target from their persepective. better to detonate a nuke in bombay and new dehli than try to smuggle one into the US perhaps.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Also, I'd think that, while the US is seen as a problem for fundamental islam, Hindus are the ancient paganistic enemy, so india might very well be a more 'sensible' target from their persepective. better to detonate a nuke in bombay and new dehli than try to smuggle one into the US perhaps.

Combining this with my post above, actually the Paki Army wouldn't have too much of a problem with it should the nuke be meant for India.

But if this were to happen, what happens next -

Scenarios -
1) India blames Pakistan for the attack and Nukes Karachi ,Islamabad and Paki Nuclear establishments possibly the same day if not the next. All out Nuclear war: India takes major Casualties, while Pakistan is Vaporized.

This was a possibility while the BJP government was ruling. But the current Congress is way too moderate for this.

2) India Blames Pakistan and starts a Conventional war. China supports Pakistan. US doesn't know what to do, as Pak is our "Ally" but also in this case is the aggressor. However, since China is now with Pak, US supports India and tries to have Pak Back Off (?).

3) Nothing happens, India throws a Lot of Rhetoric at Pak. Pak vehemently denies any involvement. Both countries amass troops at the borders. Other countries step in and cool down the situation.
Ummm...... Highly unlikely. Even a country as sluggish as India wouldn't take a nuclear attack at a major population center that lightly.

Well. All that apart, the Jihadis would still love to smuggle the Nuke across to the US IMHO.

IMO the nuke wont be wasted on India..either the US of if not that far then Russia or Israel or europe...

Musharraf is not in completet control of his army..lots of dissdent generals out there, infact India is helping him maintain control
As of now musharraf dictatorship is a safer bet for India tha a democratic pakistan, becasue in an election the islamists would win by a landslide,,