San Andreas fault 'locked, loaded and ready to roll' with big earthquake, expert says

originally posted by: Annee
I suppose it will happen one day. Be prepared, but don't stop living.

It will definitely happen one day.
And yes people should be prepared for it, that's all they're trying to do by warning people and educating the population about the dangers.
I really don't understand how even people on ATS are so dismissive of this. If you live with a danger in your environment you deal with it and you prepare for that risk. If you live with venomous snakes around you you have clinics with antivenom, if you live in Tornado prone areas you build a shelter, if you live in high-crime areas you buy decent locks and maybe a gun too... but apparently plenty of people here think that if you live on a massively active tectonic region even talking about it is "scaremongering" and you should just do nothing?

a reply to: Rocker2013

And come to think about it,I'm more worried about the midwest with the New Madrid fault,taht is over 200 yrs overdue,but I'm old things will happen and we have no control over them,so why dwell on it

a reply to: Oldtimer2

Today there's a swarm at Mt. St. Helens. It says the magma stores are re-charging.

originally posted by: Oldtimer2
a reply to: Rocker2013

And come to think about it,I'm more worried about the midwest with the New Madrid fault,taht is over 200 yrs overdue,but I'm old things will happen and we have no control over them,so why dwell on it

The New Madrid fault is definitely a worry too, that could affect large areas but there is far less data about that fault so making a claim that it's overdue is a little less certain.

I'm not suggesting you panic, or even dwell on it, I'm just suggesting that people should be minimally prepared for such things. No, this doesn't mean you should dedicate months, or weeks of your life to doing everything possible in preparation, it just means that people should have a plan in place and be reasonably prepared for something that is incredibly likely to happen soon.

originally posted by: ujustneverknow
a reply to: Oldtimer2

Today there's a swarm at Mt. St. Helens. It says the magma stores are re-charging.

But this doesn't really mean much, there are swarms there pretty regularly, and it hasn't led to an eruption. There's also no sign of any other indicators which we would expect to see in the lead up to an eruption either.

The quakes are deep, the recharging is slow and ongoing, there's nothing to indicate that it's going to erupt any time soon.

originally posted by: Rocker2013

originally posted by: Annee
I suppose it will happen one day. Be prepared, but don't stop living.

It will definitely happen one day.
And yes people should be prepared for it, that's all they're trying to do by warning people and educating the population about the dangers.

I really don't understand how even people on ATS are so dismissive of this.

I'm not dismissive. Everyone I know has an earthquake kit. Every kid in school has an earthquake kit, instructions, and who can pick them up.

But, as I said, born and raised here - - 70 years - - been hearing it all my life. Should I have put my life on hold out of fear? Should I put my life on hold now? Should I home school the kid so he's with me, just in case?

Here are the death statistics on the Northridge Quake: I was in a VW bus underneath a FWY overpass. That was scary, because I am aware of structural failure during earthquakes.

Be prepared. Don't do stupid.

The largest cause of death was heart attacks. 30 out of 72 died from heart attack. And you want me to live in fear?

16 people died in a single apartment complex when it collapsed

The largest cause of death was heart attacks.

One study said that 72 people died as a result of the quake: 30 people died from heart attacks, 22 people died because of structural failure (meaning a major part of a building collapsed), 7 died from nonstructural failure and 5 people fell to their deaths. Some people were electrocuted by fallen power lines. Others were crushed and asphyxiated under their belongings. Some people on respirators died when the power went out. One woman died of smoke inhalation when a gas line ruptured and started a fire. Some people died in traffic accidents because the traffic signals went out. The deadliest collapse was at Northridge Meadows Apartments. Sixteen people were killed when the top two floors of the Northridge Meadows Apartments collapsed on top of the first floor. Building officials at the time concluded that although the building was up to codes—those codes didn't provide the safety they should have. laist.com...-1

UnBreakable:

... a new article which warns that the fault is @ 150 years overdue.

Actually, it is not 150 years overdue, the fault is not 'overdue' anything, as it does not run to a predetermined clock. Pressure just builds up and is either relieved by smaller magnitude quakes, or in one larger magnitude quake, and then the process of pressure build-up begins again. It is a constant due to tectonic motions.

The last big quakes occurred in LA 1994, a 6.7 mag, while earthquakes have constantly occurred around the San Andreas and other fault lines within the geological area, you have to go back to 1906 and the San Francisco earthquake for a so-called 'big one', which didn't just shake San Francisco, but also San Jose and Santa Rosa. Fault lines will slip when tectonic motion overcomes tectonic resistance to that motion.

Intuitively, the idea of a 'Big One' is not genuinely predictable, but more probable through cautionary predictive modeling. The San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 gave signs that were not realistically correlated to the large damaging one that hit. Rock deformations is a sure sign of pressure build-up and resistance, and I would say that resistance magnitude correlates proportionately to release and quake magnitude. The greater the resistance the greater the quake, as greater pressures have built up, and if they snap in quick release, then the quake it causes will be immense.

In terms of recorded seismic activity, strain barometers will record ever increasing spikes, with their wavelengths pointing towards eventual failure at ever-increasing shortness of wavelength. These will indicate small quakes amalgamating into one where under normal tectonic relief slippages would keep them identifyingly separate in the recordings. I would hazard a guess that bigger quakes are situations where smaller separate quakes rush towards each other and amalgamate into one quake with a larger mag? Another factor to consider is 'sympathetic quakes' due to other fault lines slipping as the 'tsunamic' energy waves from the original quake cause them to fail and contribute their own energies into the areas.

Of course, the San Andreas will slip eventually with a resultant magnitude above 7, but the loss of life and damage factor will be determined by where it hits and how wide ranging it is, what time in the day it hits, and how long the shaking goes on for, and also how soon relief outside the affected areas can get into them.

originally posted by: Annee
And you want me to live in fear?

No, read my posts again.
I'm glad you're prepared, but I clearly stated that people should NOT live in fear and obsess over it. I simply stated that people should be PREPARED.
Most people are NOT prepared, even if you are.

That's the point.

In 1989 I worked in Palo Alto and lived in Cupertino. I had a tent, stove, sleeping bag and emergency kit in my vehicle at ALL times. I had an earthquake plan. I was as prepared as I felt I could be. It just made sense, living and working along a major fault system.

Where was I when the Loma Prieta quake hit the Bay Area? Vacationing in Idaho.

Did I think my preparations were foolish because I didn't end up needing them? Nope.

I live along the Wasatch Fault system now. And I'm still prepared. Will I need my emergency kit? Don't know. But if I do, I will sure be glad I have it!

You can't live your life in fear...but ignoring the potentialities is just stupid.

originally posted by: Rocker2013

originally posted by: Annee
And you want me to live in fear?

No, read my posts again.
I'm glad you're prepared, but I clearly stated that people should NOT live in fear and obsess over it. I simply stated that people should be PREPARED.
Most people are NOT prepared, even if you are.

That's the point.

I think I must have a head injury I forgot.

The last couple days - - I've gotten everything turned around, can't focus.

Anyway, depends on what "prepared" means. Part of prepared is knowing what to do when an earthquake happens.

^You don't run outside screaming. There could be flying debris, loose electrical wires, crazy drivers, etc.
^You try to position yourself under a strong structure away from flying glass. Be fully aware of your surroundings.
^Know where your kids are. My 8 year old is to be released to his best friends mom because she lives the closest.
^Stay off the roads. Emergency vehicles need clear roads.
^Have a battery/solar radio and extra batteries. Tune in to find out what's happening in your area and where to go if necessary.
^Have an out of state/area contact for everyone to check in and/or go to if need be.

And, of course, the obvious. Stored drinking water and dehydrated foods.

In CA don't really need to keep bad weather gear, but it doesn't hurt.

a reply to: BO XIAN

I'm not so naive to lump all Israelis into the "jews are the problem" paradigm. But if you defend them simply from a biblical perspective I dont know what I can say. Its just funny how some Jews state that the Star Of David is actually a Rothschild creation and that the Menora is the only accepted "symbol"

The Oligarchy consists of Internationalists. Where they come from is irrelevant, they are Supra nationals reshaping the world in their image, a world run by technocrats and Banksters. The proliferation of Drugs/weapons and Trillions in cash money suggests that there are definitely 2 sets of rule in this world.

I wont get into a theological debate, I take a stance that the "jehovah" of OT is not mans friends (demiurge). It obvious that civilizations rise and fall on this earth; for some reason the true history is always erased/suppressed and the cycle repeats.