Bernie Has A Big Problem, But the GOP Has A Bigger One

BERNIE HAS A PROBLEM: Nevada Caucus, Before and After

First, a lot happened for the Democrats after the previous debate. Bernie Sanders was always expected to win in New Hampshire, but few foresaw Hillary Clinton suffering what NPR called a “blowout loss”. This almost certainly wasn’t part of her plan, but Clinton is no fool and handled herself well in Milwaukee at the last debate. Her game plan has always been to cast herself as the pragmatist with actual plans in contrast to Sanders’ idealism and talk of a political revolution. Her primary problem, as I see it, is not that she’s anything less than a slick political operator. If it were anyone else running against her, she’d be picking her teeth with their bones by now. But Sanders has a big-T “Truth” on his side, and as someone who literally worships the god of liars I know better than most that old Jonathan Swift adage “Falsehood flies, and the truth comes limping after it”, and I know that when the truth does finally arrive it often has a weight and presence that can blow away all the lilting, airy lies.

Unless, of course, you find new lies to keep ahead of the game. Hours before the debate, Hillary Clinton managed to snare the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, a key minority voting block that helps strengthen her lead on Sanders in that area. John Lewis, a house representative from Georgia and well-known civil rights leader, was moved — or perhaps forced at gunpoint — to proclaim that he didn’t remember Bernie Sanders hanging around back during the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. days, something he had to walk back after the enormous backlash. “I’m not saying he wasn’t there,” Lewis said later. “I’m just saying I never saw him or met him.”

Mmm-hmmmm.

Let’s be clear. The Black Caucus supporting Hillary Clinton is a political move based on past favors and *insert political spiel here*. They clearly see her as the frontrunner and they’re doing what they can to support the DNC. They’re not stupid for doing so, even if it’s getting more and more apparent that Clinton is losing young voters of every race at an alarming rate. But the real question, of course, is Will It Work.

It’s tempting to shout “no!”, but in truth the answer is “probably!” The minority vote is the best route to victory for Sanders, and Clinton is still leading him by comfortable margins. “But Sanders got more latino votes in Nevada!” I hear you say. Well, guess what! No he didn’t. The Quartz article, and pretty much every person proclaiming a victory for Sanders in regard to Hispanics, was using entrance and exit polls, which are notoriously bad at predicting the latino vote. The truth is this: Clinton won by large margins in areas of the state with a high density of hispanic voters. So when you see tweets like this, know that it is almost impossible for Sanders to have lead Clinton on hispanic voters by that large a margin and still lose by 6%.

Look, guys: Bernie Sanders still has a minority problem, and if he doesn’t fix it he will not win the nomination.

Read more at Disinfo.com

Disinfo.com is AboveTopSecret.com's "sister" site dealing with a broad range of issues related to disinformation, misinformation, and missing information in the media; as well as many of the "alternative topics" discussed on ATS. We provide this Disinfo.com article as-is because we believe it will spark additional interesting and valuable discussion here on ATS.

I think that religious issues feed into this situation in a large and direct way as well. Many of the hottest current hot button issues are mired in religious dogma. Gay marriage, the reemergence of the battle over female reproductive rights, fear of RADICAL ISLAMIC TERRORISM ( all caps not because I live in fear of it, rather to dispel the notion that liberals can't actually use the term ) - even major aspects of the class war we face these days - all trigger issues for those with evangelical viewpoints.

Whether real or imagined ( or a notion deliberately disseminated and manipulated ), those with sincere Christian convictions feel like they are under attack. The effect of this is more profound in minority communities as they tend to be statistically more engaged in religion - per capita.

The remaining Republicans understand this - particularly Trump and Cruz, with Cruz by far and away out maneuvering Trump in this regard.

With the Democrats? Well Hillary is in the best position to benefit. She doesn't actually have to make any concessions as her opponent, Sanders, has been forthright in his admission that he does not participate in organized religion.

This leaves us with a strange dichotomy. The party that is most openly exclusionary to minorities may well still enjoy the majority of that communities support, based exclusively upon religious concerns.

Hillary may be counting chickens that are never going to hatch here.

Your right, Bernie does have a problem. The game is rigged. It's alway been rigged. It's just getting more in your face now. I see a lot of people, pulling the covers up over their head and trying to convince themselves that there is no monster in the room. Cognitive Dissonance is a bitch. I think it's time to get up, just leave the room and never return. PEACE.

a reply to: DisinfoCom

Clinton getting the Congressional Black Caucus is a very big deal and a deal killer for Sanders because the Congressional Black Caucus can deliver every Black Precinct in every major metropolitan area in the US. It essentially means that Sanders is toast.

As a side note, you'll observe that Clinton also has the pollsters on her team and now, the other Democrat Party trick is in play, i.e., the polls will project a Hilary lead and, voila.....the results will mirror the polls. That pattern is reinforced by Clinton's control of the MSM and local news outlets who will giver her their endorsement.

The Republicans are basically toast as well and the GOP may well be an item of historical interest.

This really isn't an election anymore, its a Coronation. Voting matters however, not in the Presidential race, but rather at the local and state office level because those races decide whether or not the Hilary express can be derailed after the Coronation or not.

Trump is holding steady at around 30% + of the voter base. That's a lot of voters who aren't jumping to him.

I can see Cruz voters jumping to Trump and establishment voters jumping to Rubio, but I don't see a lot of bleed over between tham. I can see Carson voters jumping to Cruz, maybe Trump.

What you can to do is calculate the total voter base and decide if the remaining establishment votes are going to consolidate in time to challenge Trump. There are barely more of them.

You also have to decide if Cruz will drop in time to let Trump have a crack at his voters. When I hear people talk to pundits, the Trump voters will talk about Cruz as backup, and the Cruz voters talk about Trump. None of the others are acceptable. I think if both those candidate wash, you may see a large chunk of that electorate vanish into the woodwork.

I don't know what the establishment regular voters will do yet if they are staring at a Trump or Cruz candidacy. But if their establishment guys can't bow out, they may have to have that hold their nose moment, and it's about time. They've been forcing us to do it for how many election cycles now?

a reply to: Hefficide

How about she won he lost plain and simple.

a reply to: TonyS

So i guess brrnie winning in NH was poll playing to be he was winning there. I love and hate ats

Given how wildly off exit polls suddenly became after the 2000 Presidential election it's a wonder anyone bothers with them any more. Before the year 2000 exit polls were always within a few points of showing the actual vote. Nowadays? - something changed, drastically.

Whoever the DNC wants the DNC will get.
Whether or not the American people will want the same is doubtful at best.

a reply to: Looselungjones

I honestly don't understand your response. I was more referring to S. Carolina and Nevada. NH was an aberration.

a reply to: DisinfoCom

Its always a joke to hear people tell us their ideas are practical and others are a naive idealism. Sanders is an idealist yet after receiving millions from big banks he gutted Ron Paul's federal reserve audit bill. That seemed very pragmatic on Sanders part. Clinton seemed very idealistic when she supports a repeal of the second amendment right to bear arms, though her ideals are disgusting.

When you see the word "pragmatic" or "idealistic" in political writing, it means "lets avoid looking at the evidence because I'm clueless on that so I'll focus on silly buzzwords". Every single political topic should be focused on actual evidence and studies at least as much as the emotions and sob stories.

With the African Americans being approximately 13% of the American population, 8% of those are convicted felons and can't vote.
thegrio.com...
And, 70% of Blacks that can vote are registered to vote.
www.statisticbrain.com...
I don't believe that the Black block of voters will make much of a difference unless the vote is extremely close.

So, using the Democrat way of making this news, they are hoping the liberals that are undecided but have "bleeding heart" sympathy for the "down trodden" will change their vote using the meme that all Blacks are voting for Hillary and they should be, too.

Somehow, I do not believe that Blacks are that controlled, not since 1860!

a reply to: ketsuko

Nice avatar. Bernary?

Well I am gonna be candid here.

I am super liberal and I have a problem with Bernie and I think it represents a serious barrier for him.

Most importantly, he doesn't excite me and make me feel like he is gonna be able to change the things he opposes. I do believe America's primary problem is that is that it is being subverted by money and income inequality due to Reagan/globalist policies that have been sold to "conservative" America. Poor people who vote for a party that would reduce their wages have been convinced to vote against their best economic interests election after election. Bernie seems to understand that these people have been mislead, but I don't think he has the broad based rhetorical appeal to dip into these kinds of voters, specifically the conservative independents.

Bernie really only has 1 note and after a while the note gets tiresome because their is no dynamic range.

While I think Bernie's message and intentions are pure, he just doesn't manage to fire me up and that is a problem considering the fact that he and I see eye to eye.