Year 2030 the Start of Worldwide Famine? Peak Phosphorus

Now a detailed projection of phosphorus production by two Australian researchers indicates that world phosphate rock production will most likely peak in 2027.

Phosphorus and its compounds are used in fertilisers, animal feed, detergents, and metal treatment operations. More than 80 percent of the phosphorus produced is utilised in fertilisers to assist in crop production, resulting in increased yields of up to 50 percent. Without the use of fertilisers it would be difficult to provide sufficient food for an expanding world population, which is projected to grow from around 0.9 billion in 1850 to 9 billion in 2050.

Peak Phosphorus

While some larger institutions and agencies (USGS) say that our supply will last 300 years or so, many independent researchers place peak phosphorus around the year 2030.

With many countries becoming more developed, the demand for meat rises. A diet containing meat uses 3 times more phosphate than a vegetarian diet. Biofuels are also demanding more phosphate as it requires large areas of farm land.

90% of phosphorus reserves are found in only a handful of countries; USA, China, South Africa, Jordan and Morocco. Of those, Morroco controls 85%. The USA only has 25 years left of reserves, currently America imports most of its phosphorus from Morocco. China has already placed large tariffs on exporting phosphorus mined in their borders.

Meanwhile, billionaires are buying up huge amounts of farm land all over to capitalize on the population boom over the next 30 years and to satisfy the rising middle class and their demand for meat.

While there are ways to recycle phosphorus (animal and human waste) we are still depleting our reserves at an alarming rate. Also worrying is that only 20% of phosphate is utilized in farming with 80% wasted. Much of running off into bodies of water and creating algae blooms by depleting oxygen and threating marine life. Lake Erie has a yearly battle with the blooms Lake Erie Algae Blooms

So will we reach the peak in 2030? If the government knew we were going to reach peak in just 15 years, would they tell us, or just claim that we have more to pacify us? Even a worse thought, would they want to wait to fix the problem as a means of population control (maybe a stretch?). It was just in 2011 that the USGS increased the number from 17.63 billion tons to a shocking amount more, 71.65 billion tons in reserves.

One thing is for sure, peak phosphorus is inevitable and there is a lot of disagreement between independent scientists and large agencies on when it will occur.

Ghost

If Lake Erie has algae blooms they perhaps the algae dies off and falls to the lake bottom. Could Phosphorus be recovered from extracting sediment from lakes and oceans?

I agree completely,
Petrochemicals is what made the population bubble possible.
Phosphorus fertilizer is one aspect of that.
The cost of getting food to your table from Cali will eventually go out of sight as refrigeration costs, electricity, and with the coming runaway drought in the US western food basket The impact on food availability and affordability will become extreme.
Military actions relating to the remaining oil reserves and as the population begins it's shift from California eastward and the drought goes terminal in about 12-15 years it will change everything.
a reply to: ghostrager

a reply to: ghostrager

I can't imagine our current "screw you I got mine" mentality lasting another 15 years as a global governmental mindset. By then, our current oligarchy structure will have collapsed and we will be in the process of fixing the world with pooled consensus. Energy, food, poverty, etc will all be global concerns and there will be no choice but to fix it. And we totally can.

A 50% reduction in crop output only means we need more farmers to compensate. That's something we can do as a planet, no problem.

I can not find one single reliable source saying what you are saying.

Pedro Sanchez, director of the Agriculture and Food Security Center at the Earth Institute, does not believe there is a shortage of phosphorus. “In my long 50-year career, “ he said. “Once every decade, people say we are going to run out of phosphorus. Each time this is disproven. All the most reliable estimates show that we have enough phosphate rock resources to last between 300 and 400 more years.”

In 2010, the International Fertilizer Development Center determined that phosphate rock reserves would last for several centuries. In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey revised its estimates of phosphate rock reserves from the previous 17.63 billion tons to 71.65 billion tons in accordance with IFDC’s estimates. And, according to Sanchez, new research shows that the amount of phosphorus coming to the surface by tectonic uplift is in the same range as the amounts of phosphate rock we are extracting now.

blogs.ei.columbia.edu...

The only difference is price extraction. Least of problems

A lot of meth cooks in Oklahoma and Arkansas are gonna be seriously pissed if this is true.

a reply to: quercusrex

I looked into it, and it's not.

a reply to: ghostrager

You realize natural source fertilizer are still used for a fair amount of farming operations....

Pig, cow, chicken, mushroom Manure.

Compost...

There are alternatives, and regardless of what it says phosphorus never "goes away."

The fertilizer is in the soil, or absorbed by the plants, which in turn is consumed and will "exit" in fecal matter....

We've come full circle...

Recycle my friends... your poop is a valuable resource if treated correctly...

Peak oil didn't seem to work out as predicted.
Is this different?
upload.wikimedia.org...

We'll have the next Little Ice Age by then, and phosphorous consumption will drop markedly as everyone dies off. Win win.

This may be a good thing. There will be pain and shortages. However, it will force us off the use of refined phosphorus. We will become more in line with nature. Animal waste, Bats, etc. Red wiggler worm farming. There are other ways they just aren't lucrative. The bright side will be no more algae blooms or run off into the water supplies. More fish. Nature will correct itself. If we don't kill her first.

From the gold alone, poop is worth it. I don't understand why people are thinking phosphorous is going away. I'm actually brothing some bones right now. Recycle the dead, degold your poop, it's going to be a wacky future.

Correction world wide famine across the third world.


The 5 odd billion that live in the # holes of the world will die off.

Us rich in the west will just see a rise in food prices and may have to give up a meat night or two............o the humanity.

a reply to: ghostrager

Bloody el.

8.1 Billion increase in population since 1850??

Is that correct? Seems a bit much in 200 years!