Are we past peak?

Hi,I have been reading about peak oil since around 2000 and with whats going on around the Globe today with a stagnating economy and threat of world war I have been wondering if any of this could be related to declining oil production.
I can't find any official figures that say for certain that world oil production is in decline but I have read some stories that tell me we could be past peak.
I have always believed that when we pass peak that the worlds Economy would collapse and that it may even lead to ww3 as countries may go to war over resources.
What do you think,have we passed peak yet?
What do you think will happen when Global oil production begins to decline?
Does anyone have any recent articles on the current oil situation?

'Worrying' decline in oil and gas production

Norway’s Oil Decline Accelerating

a reply to: defcon25

My question about peak oil is whether it is used as a way to describe a particular statistical observation, or if it also involves the social, economic, and political variables causing the statistical observation. If that can also be part of the discussion, I would be thankful.

Not according to OPEC, everything is fine and dandy.
www.opec.org...
a reply to: defcon25

a reply to: defcon25

I think it is tough to tell...back when I was in college they were predicting it to be somewhere around 2020...or at least one source was...but at that time that shale technique wasn't being used as much where now they squeeze the oil out of rocks in quite a few places. It is more expensive but I think it has opened up quite a bit more reserves for oil. Add in the slow adapting to wind and solar energy and fracking...oil will be around for a long time...the peak may not be hit.

Not sure where you live but I had never seen one of the large windmills until I lived in Europe..around the year 2000. Now I see them quite often in many states and countries. As the world shifts more to newer technology itll be ok.

I think that was the plan all along...we have the resources as a human race to almost completely switch over.

my dad discovered a lot of the wells in niger and lybia and Saudi....peak oil is a ridiculous way to measure the availability of oil.....like saying our water is limited because the hoses are so small....
I'n not sure there ever was peak oil, not when the us was sand bagging a hundred years worth....
.
starr for you down there intrptr

Past Peak meaning past easily accessed higher quality crude. Yes we are. This explains tar sands production, Fracking and deeper drilling undersea.

Witness the gulf oils spill risks with deep oil drilling underwater, the dirty tar sand oil, harder to refine and more sulfurous, and the toxic and environmentally unfriendly fracturing for oil and gas in lesser deposits.

a reply to: rationalconsumer

Yes of course it is part of the discussion thats why I asked what you think will happen when global oil production goes into decline....speculate as much as you want.

Conventional crude peaking depending on source between 2000-2005, we're now using unconventional methods to keep the spice flowing. Interestingly enough, we've managed to take on riskier and riskier means while funneling some of the gained energies into teching our way into previously in-viable sources.

I'm beginning to think we may be able to transition without complete collapse, though the environmental damage will be quite severe before that's done in full.

In short, yes, the more expanded answer, not just yet. It depends on how one is qualifying crude. As for EROI, we've cleared gone down about an order of magnitude compared to a century ago. We're probably close to 10:1 where as it was once 100:1. This increases the environmental impact all the while population is far from stabilized. Not so good.

a reply to: defcon25

What happens when oil production declines depends on how swiftly we respond. This goes far outside of energy, and into everything it affects (everything else). If we can fully restructure our economic, monetary, and social structure to allow for a graceful decline, then we can avoid a lot of mess. If we continue to support theories which demand growth, we will fool ourselves into much needless destruction.

I would say we're past the point of when we should have done something about the problem- instead we continue down this path of consuming all of the resources available to us at a rate that ensures our own eventual destruction.

Marion King Hubbert said:

I was in New York in the 30’s. I had a box seat at the depression. I can assure you it was a very educational experience. We shut the country down because of monetary reasons. We had manpower and abundant raw materials. Yet we shut the country down. We’re doing the same kind of thing now but with a different material outlook. We are not in the position we were in 1929–30 with regard to the future. Then the physical system was ready to roll. This time it’s not. We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once. Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered.

No.

Australia is apparently sitting on more oil than Saudi Arabia. Only issue is that it's shale oil.

We're just past the age of cheap, easy to get oil.