Oh Noes! Not Another Whacky Solar Flare!

originally posted by: [post=18595212]DaRAGE
I honestly don't really see the need for a bajillion threads of what seems like a real non-existant threat

... and yet you yourself listed the events of 1859, 1921, 1960 and 1989 which do indeed show that there IS a solar flare threat. If the 1859 flare was to hit today, the damage would be HUGE. It would take months for things to come back online. Months for supply routes to get moving ... months without food and medicine manufacturing and delivery ... etc. Lots of death and chaos and upheaval and financial ruin and civil unrest and ....

originally posted by: DaRAGE

I honestly don't really see the need for a bajillion threads of what seems like a real non-existant threat. This doom porn has got to stop.

Tell me of a time when a CME or.. solar flare... or which ever way you want to call it has killed a bunch of people?

You need to talk to the alphabet agencies..they are the ones telling everyone else to watch out, even more so just lately.
As for people dying, there may well be consequential deaths rather than something immediate.

science.nasa.gov...

a reply to: Chadwickus

I would argue that our communications and power production/storage methods, are so drastically different, and that systems, even ones independent of the grid, are so much more powerful than they were back in the day, not to mention more sensitive and delicate in their construction, that damage to those systems would be possible in a Carrington Event situation.

There has been no similar incident of the same magnitude since, all the examples of other events of that kind that have happened since the age of the computer, for example, were lesser beasts in comparison by a long chalk. No one can say for certain, but I am pretty damned sure that if something of the size of the Carrington Event were to be repeated, it would be total godamned chaos, and I have no confidence that the technology we have developed since then, even those technologies not reliant on mains power, would not end up suffering for it.

I certainly think it is worth preparing for the worst, that much is for damned sure.

These sunspots and solar storms have been making the 11 meter band a complete mess all summer and it hasn't let up.

The CB is almost useless during the day from all the Mexican DX and skip interference. There have even been a few nights lately where cosmic radiation has caused late night skip as well.

If you like talking distance on the CB during skip conditions, then this year was great so far.

originally posted by: TrueBrit
a reply to: Chadwickus


There has been no similar incident of the same magnitude since, all the examples of other events of that kind that have happened since the age of the computer, for example, were lesser beasts in comparison by a long chalk. No one can say fore certain, but I am pretty damned sure that if something of the size of the Carrington Event were to be repeated, it would be total godamned chaos, and I have no confidence that the technology we have developed since then, even those technologies not reliant on mains power, would not end up suffering for it.

I certainly think it is worth preparing for the worst, that much is for damned sure.

I could go with that. American authorities have stated that the grid has nothing designed in that takes into account extreme solar conditions. No power, damaged HV transformers, no pumping for water, oil lines whatever. Big lead times for new HV transformers, and about the only thing that can be done is to shut down the power, and hope that the solar storm is short-lived, and not a continous series of blasts as happened not so long ago, which missed the Earth. Here's some idea of what happened in Quebec,

Are you kidding me? If cellphones alone were knocked out for 2 days in NA I would worry about the 50% suicide rate.

The American public is no longer filled with gritty survivors. It is filled with people that know how to push buttons to make things work with no idea how those buttons work.


Anything at all that could disrupt any power in the US (and other first world countries) would cause incredible mass chaos.... INCREDIBLE. Even if power loss was just for a day.

Right... So... What solar flare X class would be needed for that type of magnetic storm that occurred in 1859?

Because all I see is threads saying X3 or X insert number headed our way. World's going to end! Oh noes.

Then all that happens is the atmosphere gets lit up a little.

What exactly is it going to take?

a reply to: DantesPeak
And when you say "people without heat", you mean those idiots that are so unfortunate enough that they don't know how to light a fire with some material that would burn and instead choose to freeze to death in their own homes?

a reply to: DaRAGE

Well, the Carrington Event was such a monstrously powerful event, that it caused auroral displays as far south as Tahiti (it is, after all, a magical place), and was caused by HUGE coronal mass ejections.

Because of the relative rarity of our experience of such enormous events, those which are on a par with the Carrington Event, appear to have been designated Carrington Class events by some publications and authors. Apparently there was just such an event in 2012, which thankfully blew past the Earth without coming into contact with the magnetosphere, but did impact one of the Stereo solar observatory satellites.

The scientists discussing the event at a relatively recent NOAA meeting, concluded that if it had of hit the Earth, the damage to the US alone would have been worth something like 2.6 trillion dollars. That's roughly twenty times the cost of clean up associated with a serious hurricane, and does not take into account the global nature of the threat.