Ebola Math - Updated October 5th - 30k cases by 2015

I've been crunching the numbers on ebola using Excel, thought I'd share some thoughts. I'm using the data points from the timeline on the Wiki article for the outbreak. If you have any questions pertaining to the data feel free to ask, I'll try to respond best I can.

But here's the current bottom line (you can double check my data points from the article - some months have a day or two longer or shorter depending on the date of the closest data point I can use for the actual end/start of the month)

July Average Cases Per Day: (1440-759) / 30 = 22 new cases per day in July
(Note: Runs July 1st -July 30th)

August Average Cases Per Day: (3707-1440) / 32 = 70 new cases per day in August (an increase of 48 new cases per day)
(Note: Runs July 31st - August 31st)

September Average Cases Per Day: (7492-3707) / 31 = 122 new cases per day in September (an increase of 52 new cases per day)
(Note: Runs September 1st - October 1st)

October Average Cases Per Day: (8033-7492) / 4 = 135 new cases per day in October thus far (an increase of 13 new cases per day so far)
(Note: Runs October 2nd - October 5th)

Of course, it's still too early in October to tell how the whole month will be. But judging on the increase in the previous two months, October averaging 170 new cases/day would certainly fit the current data.

The best line suited to the data (although it represents a worst case scenario in my opinion), currently shows about 30,000 total cases by January 1st, 2015.

Technical stuff: I'm not very good with Excel's trendline functions, but R^2 = .9976 which just means it fits the line well (an R^2 of 1 would mean it fits the data perfectly). And of course it can't keep up exponential growth forever one way or another, but I'm just not seeing a point of inflection yet (where the number of cases starts leveling off or the increase in number of new cases/day stops and starts reversing).

Lets see some graphs!

postimg.org...

There's the link to the graph - if anyone wants to post the actual pic instead of the link feel free, I can't figure out how to do it!

And of course it can't keep up exponential growth forever one way or another, but I'm just not seeing a point of inflection yet (where the number of cases starts leveling off or the increase in number of new cases/day stops and starts reversing).

unless it clusters out and keeps the momentum going i guess.

a reply to: Forteana

I would say there are 5-10 thousand untested cases/deaths that just couldn't be handled by the overwhelmed healthcare system there. Id put the number closer to 20, 25 thousand.

My question, and opinion.. I really don't think any of this is due to eating bushmeat. Maybe hunting and buthering it, but not people eating it. I imagine the virus is cooked out. Don't you guys?

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
My question, and opinion.. I really don't think any of this is due to eating bushmeat. Maybe hunting and buthering it, but not people eating it. I imagine the virus is cooked out. Don't you guys?

Many people like their meat cooked rare. I have a friend who likes his meat so rare it's almost repulsive. If only one person ate infected bushmeat, they could have became the initial carrier. It only takes one person to start an epidemic. If you then have a dozen or more people eating contaminated meat, you can see what happens.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Why? You have a thing for bushmeat?

There are other circumstances as well....burying the dead, is a family affair.....
Then theres other forms of contamination .....

originally posted by: PLAYERONE01

And of course it can't keep up exponential growth forever one way or another, but I'm just not seeing a point of inflection yet (where the number of cases starts leveling off or the increase in number of new cases/day stops and starts reversing).

unless it clusters out and keeps the momentum going i guess.

Well I meant that it can't go on exponentially forever one way or another because, in the least, there's a finite number of people on Earth.