A Glimmer Of Hope: Nigeria May Have Beaten Ebola - No new cases since August 31

www.npr.org...

"Although Nigeria isn't completely out of the woods, their extensive response to a single case of Ebola shows that control is possible with rapid, focused interventions," CDC Director Tom Frieden said in a statement.

A region or country is considered Ebola-free after 42 days without any new cases. That means Nigeria can formally declare success on Oct. 12, which would truly be cause for celebration.

The country is home to 170 million people, so the potential for Ebola to spread quickly was high. Nigeria is also a major transport hub; millions of passengers pass through the international airport in Lagos every year.

But here is the kicker for me:

Why did Nigeria succeed while Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone are still in crisis? Health officials at the CDC and elsewhere credit a relatively quick response by local health workers and the international community.

"[The countries] had rather similar plans, but it's a telling tale that Nigeria acted far earlier in the course of their national epidemic than Liberia was able to," says Howard Markel, an epidemiology historian at University of Michigan.

For instance, when Liberia started isolating patients and quarantining the West Point neighborhood in late August, "they were already in the thick of the outbreak," he says.

Okay...so let's start doing effective, impactful things instead of bungling time and again in Dallas! Where is our quick response? It wasn't until public and media outcry that the CDC expanded their contact tracing from 12 to 18 people up to 100 people. And, against CDC advice, United began to contact passengers on flights with Duncan.

We have exposed people holed up in an unsecured/unsanitary apartment. We have janitors hosing down vomit with no precautions. We have paramedics using the ambulance for two more days.

The projected spread rate of infection is exponential. We have got to lock it up!

We are a first world nation!! Let's start acting like it.... or else our hubris is going to get us all killed.

I have a coworker thinking of traveling to Nigeria this month (he is from there but has no family there but for some reason is itching to return), so we've all been watching this country closely for weeks now. They do claim to have had no new cases for a while now, but you know what? I don't buy it. I think people are not reporting things and hiding.

This coworker is as of yet undecided, or so he says. Travel advisories for Nigeria are of the "wash your hands a lot" ilk. If he goes and returns, I think I'll work from home for a few months.

All I'm saying is that I wouldn't trust their reports or go there.

ETA: I think I just saw in the potential DC ebola patient thread that that person came from Nigeria? Let me go see.

Yep. From that thread: From the link:

A patient with Ebola-like symptoms is being treated at Howard University Hospital, a hospital spokesperson confirms. The patient had traveled to Nigeria recently.

No Dallas flight connection?

originally posted by: ~Lucidity
All I'm saying is that I wouldn't trust their reports or go there.

A very valid point. They are the most populous nation in the region, lots of commerce. I'm sure the spin to reflect everything as peachy-keen is off the charts.

If true this is a very good thing. The problem is the other countries in the area still have a serious lack of supplies, space, and personnel to care for the patients there. This forces people to remain home and possibly infect others, which brings us right back to the original problem of containment. People not knowingly coming into contact with others who are infected then traveling to other countries in the area and it starts all over.

They can't say they've beaten it until it's beaten in Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.

www.cbc.ca...

So maybe there is too much doom and gloom but it sounds like Nigeria got a lot of help from the international community (note it does not credit America) because it's oil rich and has a large economy nobody wanted disrupted.

Either way it's still in America already and we're still not doing a hell of a lot. Our clean up crew is Mexican garbage men apparently.

abcnews.go.com...