NATO would respond militarily to Crimea-style infiltration: general.

a reply to: cavtrooper7

US could have undone its crimes in finance when cold war was over in 1991. It could have reduced its defense budget by $200B a year and in 10 years cleaned out the debt and be young again. However, distrust and fear of Russians lead them to do otherwise.

Russia is crippled by corruption and too much reliance on the energy resources. But Russia of today is not expansionist like USSR was. Even the "near abroad" Russia would not do anything unless the countries start to join NATO. Then Russia will act up like it did now in Ukraine and Georgia before. Russians know their standing vrs the US/NATO and do not want any fight unless it is imposed on them.

originally posted by: victor7
a reply to: MrSpad

All the support mentioned is already there.

Why is Kiev Junta calling August 18th as the day when rebels will leave Donetsk? It is because the situation has gotten bad for Junta forces. Kiev Junta will offer cease fire and try to look good but DPR will reject it now as their cease fire was rejected a week ago.

2-3 broken Brigades and several battalions of Junta are under encirclement in two separate areas. Russian artillery should cooperate now and start bombing them heavily. Either these encircled forces surrender or perish. These are elite brigades and much was expected of them. It is highly unlikely they will surrender and thus fight till the ammo has run out. So they be ready for some heavy bombing and eventual destruction. Rebels won't be waiting for prizes this time as once this theater is taken care of, they will commit the forces in the Northern areas.

Then Russia can also openly bring in its artillery, armor and rockets inside Ukraine under rebels and relieve pressure on the northern side of Donetsk, where currently its artillery cannot reach.

Kiev Junta cannot commit reserves to Donbass region as that will put Kiev in danger. They cannot operate their air forces due to Russian air defense missiles and rebel MANPADs. Junta is hoping for one last punch to take Donetsk and Luhansk. Even if they get a portion of these cities, their forces will face Afghanistan and perish slowly.

Next two days will be crucial.

The rebels who are not tossing their uniforms aside and running are not putiing up much of fight anywhere at this point. Ukraines forces have already take the center of Luhansk and they also took Yasinovataya. And in Donetsk things between the rebels and the population are getting ugly as the rebels continue to lack disipline and getting drunk crashing cars, firing weapons for fun and robbing people. It has gotten so bad that the deputy minister of defense of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Fyodor Berezin says that his men should be fighting the enemy instead terrorizing and robbing the locals and they are working on stopping it. Yeah that sure sounds like the rebels have the locals support. The rebels are done, I expect at the rate they are deserting their will barely be a fight to take Donetsk.

originally posted by: FootBig
I think everything you post should be held with suspicion

Well, time will tell. If, in a month the rebels are still a coherent force then Mr Spad's sources are wrong.

www.hrw.org...

Let's hope order is restored and everyone can move on, with Russia showing they are capable of defusing tensions.

Regards

originally posted by: FootBig
a reply to: MrSpad

I think everything you post should be held with suspicion

I wouldn't trust you to tell me the sky is blue,

Hey if you want to freak me out, tell me the sky is blue, I'll be all dubious and confused

When it comes to military or geopolitical subjects I have a very stong and long history of being correct. First while in the military and other parts of the gov and now retired. Nobody is perfect but, I am pretty damn on target most of the time. The sky is blue most of the time...

a reply to: victor7

Reagan's plan was hijacked by Bush Sr. Leo Wanta is still trying to work it out,but apparently the system in place wants the world to fail so it can take global authority.Bush knew what it would do to Russia,HE was a spook.

It is becoming a war of Oligarchs in Donbass and it has always been the instigation IMF bankers in Kiev.

The volunteer battalions financed by Oligarchs like Kolomoisky are well supplied and paid and are fighting better. These battalions are mostly comprised of criminals and extreme fascists who do not abide by military regulations and conduct unlawful activities sometimes even posing as rebels. Civilians suffer as a result.

Very unlikely that IMF provoked Junta in Kiev will be able to totally take control of Donbass regions.

Ukraine economy has already shrunk by 10% so far this year. Other than loans to fend off IMF default, no sane entity will throw a dime to Kiev. Even the loans given by EU should be written off as there is little chance for Kiev to be able to stabilize political let alone economic situation.

Rebels asking for Ossetia and Abkhazia type status to go for cease fire talks. That might be the best solution that Kiev Junta should accept otherwise they will make the whole country "butt naked" pauper and get thrown out by another Maidan followed by "Out in Open" Extreme Right Wing take over and then there will be a civil war in the WHOLE country not alone Donbass region.

a reply to: nighthawk1954

I certainly hope so, but I'm not holding my breath. Noone but Putin has the stomach for a real war these days. Proxy wars, and skirmishes with vastly weaker opponents seems to be about all any of the developed world is willing to tolerate. To me, this rings of Obama's "red line" in Syria...a lot of smoke and no fire. For better or for worse, I don't see NATO or the US gearing up for an all out conflict with another world power over Latvia or Estonia. If Putin rolls tanks into a NATO country with Russian flags flying, maybe. But anything short of that will likely be met with "economic sanctions"...whatever that even really means. I think Putin probably knows that as long as he isn't grossly blatant about what he's doing, he pretty much has free reign in Eastern Europe.

Woozy

Situation not too good with rebels barely holding on while Kiev Junta army is starting to show signs of exhaustion and thus desperation. Use of artillery and phosphorus bombs is widespread from Junta forces. Three cities around Donetsk are taking heavy pounding. Junta is trying to take these cities but are repelled repeatedly.

www.liveleak.com...

www.liveleak.com...

Bottomline is Putin cannot lose a proxy war to US...........in his backyard............'cause next thing would be the glass breaking in his living room. He knows that well and thus should bring real support to rebels across the border and out of the vacation. Russian artillery should clean out any Junta forces around the border and then move in hard assets and resources freely to the rebels. Such support will surely help Novorossiya !!

a reply to: FootBig

And one more thing spad, I just joined ATS though I've been reading for long time, and my ATS oddly cacluated karma score is 47 at this time

while yours is 40 and you've been here since 2010

And my dad can beat up your dad...What does that have to do with this thread?

It is a bad thing when Karma bites back, and for Putin and the separatists Karma will not be good to them in the end.

See that's how you tie things into a thread.

a reply to: victor7

He knows that well and thus should bring real support to rebels across the border and out of the vacation. Russian artillery should clean out any Junta forces around the border and then move in hard assets and resources freely to the rebels. Such support will surely help Novorossiya !!

You sure are hell bent on Russia invaded Ukraine aren't you?

And why haven't they been able to hold their ground in other areas, you see Putin got what he wanted the rest is just fun for him and his Stalinist way of thinking.

Putin is not dumb enough to draw a full invasion, nor does he want to send more troops over the border and risk his big numbers in Russia, hard to be elected if the people don't like you anymore.

originally posted by: Britguy
a reply to: paraphi

Richer, Freer West? Are you kidding?
All countries in the West are in catastrophic economic collapse, engineered by the same people pushing war down our throats and ramping up the rhetoric against Russia.

You bang about "catastrophic economic collapse" - despite an appalling lack of evidence, ATS'ers have been warning of an "economic collapse" for 5-6 years now - then complain of rhetoric?

I do love irony for breakfast, yummmy...

originally posted by: Britguy
Freer? Free to do whatever we want, as long as we pay our taxes and don't oppose the government.

Correct on the first part, but not sure why you think we cannot oppose the Government. People do it every day, of every week of the year without incident.

originally posted by: Britguy
Free to be watched, recorded and generally monitored every day of our lives. Free to be second class citizens to the corporate and banking elites that own us.

BS. More hyperbole.

a reply to: victor7

Ukraine... 3rd world?

As for any "co-operation" on any of the votes - it is clear to anyone outside Mother Russia they were a farce.

The rebels are in dire crap - they have just passed a new draconian law which clearly shows there desperation and they have problems in their ranks:

The rebel-led administration in Donetsk said they had introduced the death penalty for offences including treason, desertion and sabotage.

Eduard Yakubovsky, acting prosecutor-general of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, said the penalty would also cover "military crimes committed... on the battlefield, such as handing over military hardware or weapons".

Linky poo

a reply to: FootBig

Indeed you have just joined ATS, so perhaps you should take time to learn how things are done.

Comment on the topic at hand, not the poster. All your doing is showing you don't have anything meaningful to say.

a reply to: tsurfer2000h

Putin is not dumb enough to draw a full invasion, nor does he want to send more troops over the border and risk his big numbers in Russia, hard to be elected if the people don't like you anymore.

But he is dumb enough to have white truck convoy sit on the border barely 1 hour drive to Luhansk and not do anything about it. Pussy-footing is not the way to deal with such situations.

It seems Junta has pretty much encircled Donetsk as they are not moving forward anymore but putting up various check points like 33 of them so far. Putin and company will lose more voter points when Donetsk civilians start to suffer from essentials shortages. Sarajevo all over again, hope not !!

This isnt news. This is the whole premise of te NATO doctrine-an attack on one country is considered an attack on all. Of course a Crimea style invasion of a NATO country by Russia would draw a military response.

Not sure why this is linked to Ukraine though. Ukraine is NOT a NATO country and a Crimea style invasion into the rest of Ukraine would NOT require a NATO military response. Seems like there are two completely different issues being discussed here, one relevant and one not.

originally posted by: nighthawk1954

BERLIN (Reuters) - If Russia tries to infiltrate troops into a NATO country, even out of official military uniform as it did before it annexed Ukraine's Crimea, NATO will respond militarily, the alliance's top commander said in an interview published on Sunday.

Well there it is! If Russia moves into the Ukraine the crap will really hit the fan.

news.yahoo.com...

a reply to: victor7

Watch out for the bankers here is a 25 minute vid so you understand what I mean Victor...www.youtube.com...

THESE are who we speak of when we say "Shadow Government" essentially it is corporate thuggery rampant and unbound wrapped by laws that protect it from legal intrusion.

a reply to: paraphi

Not to sure what you were smoking but its the opposite of it.

The fear factor for the EU is the major potential to be economically destroyed by the BRICS and Russia.

a reply to: nighthawk1954. Ukraine is not in NATO! Yet. That is why Putin did what he did. Protect his navy base and tried to move into Ukraine proper but we all see how well that is working out for him lol. The NATO countries have a whole lot more sense than Ukraine did at the start of all this but let's hope it doesn't happen on Obamas watch.

Even if Putin sent troops in to take over which I don't think he will

Neither America or Europe would go to war with Russia over the ukraine

Just my humble Opinion

Riouz