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originally posted by: Zaphod58
You guys do realize that accidents are more likely to happen right after an accident occurs right? It's statistically shown that after an aircraft accident, the odds of there being another one go up. There have even been cases where multiple accidents happened on the same day.
Now you have an older plane (first flew in 1996), which was designed or medium range flights, and had 32,000 cycles on it. That's a lot of cycles on an aircraft and puts a lot of wear and tear on an airframe. It had to fly through the area that hurricanes form in, which means a lot of storms, some of them strong.
So you have an older aircraft that's approaching its structural limit in cycles (if it hadn't passed it already) flying through a heavy strong storm area, with a storm known to be in the area.
I'd say it's FAR more likely that it suffered a catastrophic failure than it was shot down.