S&P 500 nearing level 2000 and the awaited stock market crash

A market crash is being expected by many for quite some time now.

Today I came across this post at zerohedge:
It's Never Different This Time - 1987 or 2014?

Totally overbought S&P 500 soon about to reach psychological super level 2000. Will this eventually help to trigger a significant fall?

Alexander Elder also waiting for crash to happen soon:

“People who are bullish are having a wonderful time,” he said. “The market is making a new high every day.” As it turned out, Elder turned bearish several months ago.

Elder, who also wrote a book on short-selling, “Sell and Sell Short,” said, “This market is running on hot air and inertia. The party is still going on but there are police lights flashing down the block and the party is about to get busted up. The longer it goes, the nastier it will fall.”

Source: www.marketwatch.com...

I'm only day-trading currencies and gold, but if had invested in stocks, I think I would start to get very cautious.

Ko3

I give it two weeks, just after the fourth of july. It will be a big correction, controlled by the ones running things. Shutting down the market won't help, it will drop over a week.

This is just a prediction, I can make those too, based on feelings and nothing else. Most people who watch the stock market know a correction is in order. I'm thinking this will be a big one. Maybe thirty percent down. But not all stocks will be tumbling, people who have their money in secure modest investments won't do so bad. Mostly rapid growth.

Three weeks till someone can call my prediction bull. I suppose most people will forget it if it doesn't happen

a reply to: rickymouse
I hold, well,signifigant amounts in the market. At my last quarterly meeting with my broker (at a very well known and respected firm which I don't want to name) I saw that we are slowly turning stocks into cash and our focus has moved into a new direction with large investments in Northup Grunman, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon,G.E. and lots of other military/industrial companies. Just saying.

a reply to: rickymouse
Is there really a "correction" coming or is the stock market just re-calibrating to pre-recession statistical figures? Is there any correlation between stocks rising as the present administration comes to an end?

Gold started to skyrocket 2 days ago, by more than $40 during one day:
www.fxstreet.com...
They say it's risk aversion due to the latest developments in Iraq but there might be more behind that move.

Ko3

originally posted by: abe froman
a reply to: rickymouse
I hold, well,signifigant amounts in the market. At my last quarterly meeting with my broker (at a very well known and respected firm which I don't want to name) I saw that we are slowly turning stocks into cash and our focus has moved into a new direction with large investments in Northup Grunman, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon,G.E. and lots of other military/industrial companies. Just saying.

Good picks for obvious reasons but tends to make one feel guilty directly financing the war machine. Hemp and Medical Marijuana stocks are a good choice IMHO also and companies tied to graphene technology and the internet of everything. In fact Lockheed Martin is producing a nano-graphene water filter that will reduce energy output requirements by 200%. I believe they plan on bringing it to market late this year.

a reply to: abe froman


Didn't we just have a correction? Sounds like labor pains. Harder and less time between. And thanks for the tip by the way.

originally posted by: kid_of_3NKi
Gold started to skyrocket 2 days, +$40 during one day:
www.fxstreet.com...
They say it's risk aversion due to the latest developments in Iraq but there might be more behind that move.

Ko3

Well if I remember correctly gold was around $600-$700 an ounce prior to 2003 before the invasion of Iraq. It has risen quite significantly.

a reply to: Logarock
It's not a tip, it's just what happened. Also, those decisions were made two months ago. My guy is good,no doubt, but even he couldn't have seen ISIS/Iraq part III coming two months ago.

a reply to: Rosinitiate

It has risen until September 2011 to about $1920 when it started to weaken and one year later it fell down to $1180, couldn't break support @ 1180 and now seems to accumulate and preparing to rise again.

a reply to: abe froman


What you are talking about sounds like indications of something larger than ISIS. Big moves. Northrup? Don't they make strategic long range bombers? Did your guy mention Halliburton?

(My opinion based off of my interpretations of historical charts and articles from the last several years)

The stock market will continue to break records for the next 2 quarters, possibly 3. The Fed is planning on ending the 0% interest rates in October. That is bad news for the market. Gas prices will also continue to rise into the fall. Bad news again waiting for the market later this year.

Right now I'm in the market - but I just recently got in and I've missed out on plenty of profits waiting around. I will be removing my money before or in the beginning of October. Anytime after that (imo) and you're really pushing it.

When I remove my money, I'm buying silver eagles. When the market "crashes" I'm back in the market for pennies on the dollar.

Its all about timing. You have to keep your money on its toes and you must have a plan. Study and go with your gut. The risks are greater than the benefits but I'm a gambler myself (and my gut has not failed me with regards to the market and PMs).

a reply to: Logarock
No, no Haliburton.

a reply to: six67seven
You are a short-term investor, I am a long term investor. The long -term investor always cashes out ahead.

a reply to: abe froman

Not necessarily, I'm just young.
Gimme time! Lol

There's truth to these "psychological barriers" though I'd put more focus into the underlying fundamentals.

Energy runs civilization.

Look for signs that domestic energy production has again peaked, for the crash to unfold.

This fracking and shale oil are low EROI anyways, but they do keep the GDP rising in the short run. My understanding is that the bell curve in both are steep in both directions. Spike, then collapse, and I think we're only 2-3 years from the collapse in this increased domestic energy production.

So I'd take a guess that, yea, fluctuations can and will occur, but there's not anything huge to happen for at least 18 months or so.

originally posted by: abe froman
a reply to: Logarock
It's not a tip, it's just what happened. Also, those decisions were made two months ago. My guy is good,no doubt, but even he couldn't have seen ISIS/Iraq part III coming two months ago.

The reason invest in military is probably because just recently the military budget was announced, hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe this occurs the same time every year, so they invest two months prior, the military gets hundreds of billions of dollars via the tax payers, and those who invested see their companies value raise.

a reply to: abe froman

Very true, this may just be a planned correction. If this turns out to be a real prediction I will wonder who I am linked to that would know this is coming.

originally posted by: rickymouse
I give it two weeks, just after the fourth of july. It will be a big correction, controlled by the ones running things. Shutting down the market won't help, it will drop over a week.

This is just a prediction, I can make those too, based on feelings and nothing else. Most people who watch the stock market know a correction is in order. I'm thinking this will be a big one. Maybe thirty percent down. But not all stocks will be tumbling, people who have their money in secure modest investments won't do so bad. Mostly rapid growth.

Three weeks till someone can call my prediction bull. I suppose most people will forget it if it doesn't happen

Well your guess would coincide with the time frame that the crisis actors are needed in Dallas Texas for a "drill". Paying $200.00 no experience necessary, if anybody is interested.

The 1987 stock market crash probably was caused by a sudden interest rate spike, nothing like that is likely with the current Federal reserve running things. Janet Yellen said this months inflation numbers might be just a temporary blip, and so long as oil prices come back down soon oil has already been factored into the market.

Obama said today that there will not be any US military intervention for Iraq, they need to work their problem out diplomatically.
He better be willing to release some of the US oil reserves into the market supply if those diplomatic efforts fail.