NASA/GRL/Science - Collapse Of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Appears To Be Under Way, Likely Unstoppable

NASA/GRL/Science - Collapse Of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Appears To Be Under Way, Likely Unstoppable

The collapse of large parts of the ice sheet in West Antarctica appears to have begun and is almost certainly unstoppable, with global warming accelerating the pace of the disintegration, two groups of scientists reported Monday.

The finding, which had been feared by some scientists for decades, means that a rise in global sea level of at least 10 feet may now be inevitable. The rise may continue to be relatively slow for at least the next century or so, the scientists said, but sometime after that it will probably speed up so sharply as to become a crisis.

There's no mechanism by which the rate of loss can be slowed, and human population is continually growing at ever faster rates. As Tyson quipped, it's not about "saving the Earth," it'll be here with or without us.

“This is really happening,” said Thomas P. Wagner, who runs NASA’s programs on polar ice and helped oversee some of the research. “There’s nothing to stop it now. But you are still limited by the physics of how fast the ice can flow.” Two papers scheduled for publication this week, in the journals Science and Geophysical Research Letters, attempt to make sense of an accelerated flow of glaciers seen in parts of West Antarctica in recent decades.

Both papers conclude that warm water upwelling from the ocean depths has most likely triggered an inherent instability that makes the West Antarctic ice sheet vulnerable to a slow-motion collapse. And one paper concludes that factors some scientists had hoped might counteract such a collapse will not do so.

a reply to: Blackmarketeer
a warm upwelling of water...
well, at least the ice is in the water now so not much will change level wise
i wonder: is the land side of the glacier growing and calving into the warm upwelling,....
or shrinking away from the sea shore ala warming?


this is what happened the last time we actually had a quick warmup over a few thousand years:
the land based ICE melted too...all two miles high of it

a reply to: Danbones

Cthulhu is awakening. Remember "the Bloop" and the other unexplained noises that were near Antarctica and thought to be animal in Nature?

a reply to: Blackmarketeer

This is why "climate change" needs to be taken seriously. *sigh*

"The earth will be here..." and humanity, will we? Or will we go the way of the trilobites, those tough-as-nails critters that make awesome fossils. They are a "marker fossil" as they were dominant and wide-spread in the earth's oceans for a distinct period of time before slowly dying out. Trilobites

My Geology professor back in college said humans would make great marker fossils if we went into extinction. That would be a grim legacy... Okay, so I'm being a bit maudlin. Erm. Okay. A LOT maudlin!

The Earth doesn't need to be saved. Humanity however, well, that may be another story indeed...I hope Mars colony is comfy by the time the caps melt...We do have 100-1000 years to make that happen, right? I bet we can pull that off. In the meantime, don't buy ocean-front property.

peace,
AB

originally posted by: the owlbear
a reply to: Danbones

Cthulhu is awakening. Remember "the Bloop" and the other unexplained noises that were near Antarctica and thought to be animal in Nature?

Gulp :O

I better get my Narwhal out.



Back to the OP scary stuff indeed, I agree and think we have done far to little far to late.

We all know the climates of the planet are out of kilter, having no long term stability. Plants and trees blooming a month or so earlier than usual, while the weather has become more rapid and intense, pushing extremes into human experience. As George Carlin once joked..."The planet doesn't need saving, it isn't going any where...we are, the human race is #ed!" The 'pro' and 'anti' climate camps will continue to argue their points even when the oceans reach up to our bottom lips as we wade down our streets to do some shopping. Even then, no consensus on what to do will be sensibly reached.

Perhaps, in the end, the 'anti-climate' warming sceptics have won their way? It might well be too late now to do whatever we thought we could do? Natural planetary dynamics may have kicked in with self-propelling energy, tipping points reached, and the whole thing taken out of our hands. For future generations the environment may become a pretty hostile place, and all because the current generations couldn't, wouldn't agree to do the right thing when they could've done. Ah well, that's our species for you...selfish unto itself! We are a species that doesn't like to be inconvenienced...not for anything, even for our own survival.

a reply to: Blackmarketeer

The rise may continue to be relatively slow for at least the next century or so, the scientists said, but sometime after that it will probably speed up so sharply as to become a crisis.

Somebody help me out here ...

A pretty conservative estimate on my part, but I'd say it's fairly likely 7 billion people are going to die before that happens. Why should I be worried? I'll be lucky to make it ten more years.

a reply to: elysiumfire

Well said, we had so much potential and we are ficking it all up
Maybe it is time for a reboot? If any of us survive I hope they learn from our mistakes.

Please let it submerge all of Florida...

a reply to: Blackmarketeer

Both papers conclude that warm water upwelling from the ocean depths has most likely triggered an inherent instability that makes the West Antarctic ice sheet vulnerable to a slow-motion collapse. And one paper concludes that factors some scientists had hoped might counteract such a collapse will not do so.

Ok, so from what the above seems to imply, is that the heat is coming from inside the earth? If that is the case, I wonder what would effect the inside of the earth, certainly not us, especially since all 7 billion of us can fit in Rhode Island. Maybe there is a particle that interacts with the core and mantle, maybe it's an increase in energy transfer due to solar activity like CME's?

Other than that, seems like a slow day day, good for some slo-mo doom porn ;-)

Cheers - Dave

a reply to: bobs_uruncle
It's isn't 'heat from inside the earth,' rather it's overall warming of the planet, the ocean has a 'conveyor,' that brings warm waters to the cooler regions and cool waters to the warmer regions, and as the study notes, the warm waters flowing to the arctic are increasing in temperature and rapidly leading to loss of the ice shelf.

originally posted by: Blackmarketeer
a reply to: bobs_uruncle
It's isn't 'heat from inside the earth,' rather it's overall warming of the planet, the ocean has a 'conveyor,' that brings warm waters to the cooler regions and cool waters to the warmer regions, and as the study notes, the warm waters flowing to the arctic are increasing in temperature and rapidly leading to loss of the ice shelf.

So are you saying the entire west ice sheet is floating in the water, because if it is, it pretty much broke off a long while ago. If it is breaking off from the earth underneath, the heat is more than likely coming from the earth and not the ocean current conveyor.

Cheers - Dave

originally posted by: bobs_uruncle
So are you saying the entire west ice sheet is floating in the water

No. Look up what an ice dam is, as it is a similar concept to what's going on.

Here's a quick and dirty graphical representation:

Melting these natural barriers is a problem. This is why they mention no hills in the area to prevent this sliding scenario.

originally posted by: the owlbear
a reply to: Danbones

Cthulhu is awakening. Remember "the Bloop" and the other unexplained noises that were near Antarctica and thought to be animal in Nature?

the bloop was proven to be geological activity being played IN FAST MOTION so i sounded like the bloop. its actually a really really long recording that sounds more like a low rumbling.... check it out!

So... what they are saying is that ice will melt out towards sea and calve off in large chunks over the next thousand years?

Duh...

Isn't that what it does now anyways?

Didn't we just have a massive 22 mile long bit break off a few months back?

Hasn't it been doing this for thousands of years already?

So... The ice breaks off and, by some miracle, doesn't somehow enter into the earth's current water cycle (you know, melt, evaporate, rain, freeze) and just sit in the ocean like a stubborn child? Over a thousand years? Really?

REALLY???

originally posted by: mindseye1609

originally posted by: the owlbear
a reply to: Danbones

Cthulhu is awakening. Remember "the Bloop" and the other unexplained noises that were near Antarctica and thought to be animal in Nature?

the bloop was proven to be geological activity being played IN FAST MOTION so i sounded like the bloop. its actually a really really long recording that sounds more like a low rumbling.... check it out!

I have. As well as the other anomalous sounds like it!
Found the story on ATS and have been intrigued ever since.
They are creepy. I dont think we know what all of them were. We know more about the moon than the ocean.

Once again, I neglect to share my Facebook with ATS and I get scooped.

But anyway, is this something that can affect the ocean currents? Because as I recall, that's how "The Day After Tomorrow" happened. Polar caps fracturing and melting and the influx of polar melt water offsetting the balance of the "beast of the sea", which triggers a chain reaction of environmental catastrophes as nature effectively faceplants.

originally posted by: gspat
So... what they are saying is that ice will melt out towards sea and calve off in large chunks over the next thousand years?

There is also evidence in another study that increased heat is leading to water melting down through glaciers and to the sea, which can lubricate the glacier and cause it to move faster.

Essentially, they're saying we're speeding calving up beyond the natural cycle's ability to replenish it. It should be self-evident that this is happening in other areas of the world; glaciers are on a global retreat. This is an instance of it happening in Antarctica.

a reply to: AfterInfinity

In effect, yes. Meltwater, among other things, will decrease the ocean's salinity and greatly affect the 'global conveyor' current. NOAA has a brief explanation here (page 2 get's into the meat of it):
The Global Conveyor Belt (NOAA.gov)

a reply to: Greven

Damn why didn't I think of that, those damned ice beavers building ice dams LOL. Seriously though, I understand how water currents work and I have the ocean maps, I've done quite a bit of personal research on ocean hydraulics in targeting crashed aircraft locations, as you have to take ocean currents and strata into account. Now, are we attributing this catastrophe causing change in temperature to nature or human activity? I mean, weather is weather, it's been going on for millions if not billions of years. If the ocean changes by 10 feet, oh well, I don't have ocean property and anyone who does can move inland. Wall street will be under water, oh well, it's a good start.

Now as far as the ice slide goes, you still need to break the junctions holding the ice sheet in place. You can stick a spoon on your nose and have it sit there and it won't fall off till you start to sweat or move the wrong way, like forward. It's that little bit of uniform lubrication that really makes things "heat up" (ewww, maybe going in the wrong direction here), so, the ice still should be melting from underneath as well to provide said lubrication to make everything slide nicely. Where is that heat coming from, apart from the earth?

Cheers - Dave