Iran always just about to have a nuke

Just a friendly mod suggestion...

Let us have a little decorum here. Discuss the issue without making veiled or not so veiled commentary about people who may not agree with your take.

Friendly for the moment.

reply to post by pavil


I agree with your assessment, Iran did sign the NPT and definitely has not followed protocols, why is good question.

Just my opinion but the tech for gun type bombs is relatively easy and they do have the industrial base to do that - have they done so I don't know.

Unless and until they either test one on their own soil or use one in anger nobody can claim 100% that they have it. However the same goes for all of you claiming Iran does not have the bomb just because you haven't seen the mushroom.

I fall on the side of assuming they do have because there really is not much logic in non-compliance with NPT protocol or inspections and suffering sanctions. Again one has to ask why.

Seems the anecdotal evidence is Iran tests missile tech for NK and likewise NK may test Iran's weapons, again have to qualify all this with no one in the public is able to prove or disprove any of this.

Israel always brought into this seems like a side issue because they never have signed the NPT. Many have mentioned rather directly that Iran as a sovereign nation can do as it pleases, well that's true, until that sovereign nation signs an international treaty or pulls out of it.

Just some food for thought.

In the early 1940s the USA created the first atomic bombs. Yes they were small ones but they were big enough to level a city. This was done with the help (leadership) of many European Scientists and thus was a world effort.

They did not have a calculator. They did not have a computer. There were no CNC machines. They used slide rules! They did not even know if it was possible to make one.

We are now 70 years into the future with all the technocratic advances we have made.

People, it is not difficult to make one, not difficult at all. If Iran wants them then she already has them. IMHO this is the primary conundrum for the West. Does Iran have them or doesn't she.

After the fall of the USSR, people were thinking of all the weapons grade plutonium sitting around to be sold to the highest bidder. We were told not to worry, getting the Nuclear triggers was bad ass difficult. I laughed then as I laugh now. If it could be done in the 1940s with the limits of engineering and explosive tech, it would be a breeze now.

Iran's Nuclear program has been going on long enough for them to have many, especially as I have a belief that they have developed tactical weapons, ie, low yield battlefield weapons. If she sets a few of them off on her own soil, well what can you do except lament the loss of a thousand Abrams Battle Tanks or a Naval Battle Group or two.

Once again, Israel has undeclared Nukes and all is fair in love and war.

P

reply to post by primalfractal


Not true at all. They could be working on their first nuclear subs, or portable nuclear power stations, or a hundred other things. If they wanted yo ise a bomb on israel so badly then thwy wou ld have.

Iran isn't the enemy the west wants them to be (a major blow to the whole villian image came when they elected a new president). Israel needs a reason to keep upping defenses, building nukes, the bilkions they take from us in aid. The US always likes a boogeyman on deck and our "reps" need a reason to support their pals in Israel.

Don't be naive. Israel causes more harm and has more seceet nukes that we should worry than iran ever will

reply to post by pheonix358


I don't think they have them or want them.

Also, its not important, but those very first bombs would maybe level a very small city, but if you are talking a city like chicago, or NYC then it would likelyonly take out a few blocks.

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow


Or an aircraft carrier! They do not want the big ones. Small ones for defense is my guess if they have any.
Not everyone wants or needs to extinguish all life on Earth, it takes perverted minds to contemplate that.

P

This conversation so far is a fascinating study in mind control.

The video suggests that something is afoot, as each headline says the same thing, JUST ONE YEAR AWAY! This is stated a panic, freak out, impending death fact! Yet, each year passes and no bomb, but same headline, as if churned out by a spambot.

So the topic should be, "what is going on with the PR, wag the dog" type stuff here? Instead, the conversation is about the very talking points included in the PR, which are argued over as if they are facts, facts that came from those very PR press releases released by those who want to kill every Iranian on the planet for reasons unknown and unstated in the PR releases.

Fascinating. I love how folks, even learned folks, are unable to shed the talking points, the gravitate to the hand crafted "both sides of the story" and duke it out. The stand on their chosen side of the "both sides" argument and fight for supremacy, as if they are no talking about the deaths of their family members, but chess pieces. And someone will reply to my post saying, "Iran can't have nuclear weapons....." and how I miss the real point.

pavil
reply to post by ATSWATCHER

 

You are being obtuse. Obviously there has been questions on Exactly what Iran's nuclear program is. As a signor of the NPT, Iran was found in non-compliance with its NPT safeguards agreement. Specifically it failed to declare it's Uranium enrichment program at all. There were also other non-compliance issues with the NPT in regards to safeguard agreements ect.

The NPT just doesn't say "Hey I can make nuclear power without safeguards in place that are not verifiable by the IAEA". Iran has had a history of non-disclosure and according to the IAEA, hasn't met the threshold of verification needed to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program.

As a signer of the NPT, Iran has obligations it has NOT met.


Obviously you read the NPT differently than the IAEA, UN and Security Council. Otherwise Iran would not be facing the punitive actions it has.

Az I thought, There is NO LAW that stated "Even if you make Peaceful Nuke power-plants you have to disclose it.


Because the U.S./U.K./France/USSR would have stated EVERY SINGLE TIME they built a nuke power-station, "We are disclosing another power plant named such and such." but they didn't why BECAUSE THERE IS NO LAW SAYING SO, and just az I knew you could/would understand/answer my question/statements.

Phoenix
reply to post by pavil

 

I agree with your assessment, Iran did sign the NPT and definitely has not followed protocols, why is good question.

Just my opinion but the tech for gun type bombs is relatively easy and they do have the industrial base to do that - have they done so I don't know.

Unless and until they either test one on their own soil or use one in anger nobody can claim 100% that they have it. However the same goes for all of you claiming Iran does not have the bomb just because you haven't seen the mushroom.

I fall on the side of assuming they do have because there really is not much logic in non-compliance with NPT protocol or inspections and suffering sanctions. Again one has to ask why.

Seems the anecdotal evidence is Iran tests missile tech for NK and likewise NK may test Iran's weapons, again have to qualify all this with no one in the public is able to prove or disprove any of this.

Israel always brought into this seems like a side issue because they never have signed the NPT. Many have mentioned rather directly that Iran as a sovereign nation can do as it pleases, well that's true, until that sovereign nation signs an international treaty or pulls out of it.

Iran has had nuclear weapons since the early 1990s when they acquired four from Kazakhstan along with about a dozen long range cruise missiles. The North Korean nuclear program is the Iranian nuclear program and the Syrian nuclear program. All three countries have nuclear weapons and work together to produce them. North Korea provides the testing ground. Iran and North Korea have the most advanced nuclear weapons on the planet, more advanced than those of the United States. The United States has done some research into new nuclear weapons, but Iran, North Korea, and Syria have been doing a lot of research for a long time. We are not talking about gun type bombs here. We are talking about miniaturized nukes, linear implosion, two point implosion, etc. It is not necessary to test a gun type design. You know that will work. The US never tested the gun design before they dropped Little Boy. The North Koreans, et al, have been working on physically small bombs with small yields using the least amount of fissile material possible. That is why the bomb yields appeared to be so small. The less fuel the bomb needs, the more bombs you can build. In 2005 North Korea was estimated to have enough fuel for 25 Hiroshima sized bombs. With less fuel this can be scaled up to possibly 50 bombs. That was eight years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if North Korea, Syria, and Iran each had 200 nuclear tipped ballistic missiles.

reply to post by Adaluncatif


Of course they do.....................