A Deeper Earthquake Cycle?

Hmmm...

It seems that Phage discovered a new cycle. Congratulations.

If the cycle is confirmed in April, let's hope our friend Phage becomes more open minded...

It will be even more interesting if the "confirmation quake" happens on April 23...

Because of another thread...

Multiple waves interfering creating multiple peaks and troughs of amplification and nullification.

reply to post by ErgoTheConfusion


That was really cool!

I'm not buying into any of the "cycle theories".... I just don't see it.... at all.

Anything is possible..sure... but it seems random at best.

reply to post by MamaJ

I think you misunderstood my point... I'm in favor of the cycle hypothesis (especially since almost everything in "nature" runs on cycles).

Multiple cycles interacting can create the image of randomness, despite not *actually* being random. Perhaps this will flesh it out further:

reply to post by ErgoTheConfusion


So.... if you do believe in the cycles not being random but actually being orderly then what is your take on the different day cycle theories.

What is your take on the 188 day cycle?

reply to post by MamaJ

I should clarify... I'm in favor of it as a hypothesis... but not a theory (yet).

Though to be honest, Phage's playfulness with the topic has resulted in me being more convinced that someone digging deeper with the additional points to work with would find something worthwhile. Just like the initial attempts at flight were "wrong" and mistaken... it was eventually figured out and now everyone says "of course!". However it wasn't long ago that it was considered insane to say "Someday men will fly faster and farther than birds."

My only take on it is that more things than not operate on cycles. Just usually there are too many variables to understand what the underlying cycles may be or make them immediately apparent. Especially given different lengths of time observing. However sometimes the "random" convergence allows one portion to show through more strongly, which gives some additional baseline data to work with to start teasing out what's going on.

It's similar to how we analyze ocean waves despite their intense complexity. Multiple sources of energy input of varying degrees can cause extremely chaotic patterns to the visual eye... but when dug into more deeply show multiple patterns interacting.

It takes 3+ days to be able to detect the day/night cycle convincingly. It takes 3 months to be able to detect the tide cycles convincingly. It takes 3 years to detect the season cycles convincingly. It takes millions of years to detect global temperature cycles... and that last one is a good example of a system which clearly has cycles, but is influenced by enough variables that it's not a *precise* cycle. Meaning people who say "Aha... this one was 191 days... debunked!" are just ignoring massive quantities of scientific data and history that shows that very very few things in nature happen on a precision cycle. There is always some level of variance.

The locust don't emerge *exactly* every 13 or 17 years, there is a variability of days or even months depending on a lot of factors in the environment. Cars break down at a relatively predictable rate, but variation in "roughness of the road" and temperatures causes variation in the exact timing. Our planet and solar system are driving along a 3D road through the galaxy, which is driving along 3D road in the universe, which is... well... I'll leave that for later. The point is... when our road changes... expect to see "bumps" affecting our "car" differently, but still predictably (from the perspective of ocean waves being predictable).

Hope that gives a better picture of how I view it? I view it with a mind that is open to the possibility and receptive to how it would fit in well with how the rest of nature works once our observation ability is good enough to have enough information to see the patterns emerging.

reply to post by ErgoTheConfusion


I think you are very correct in your thinking. Earthquake cycles seem to exist, even if they do peter out at number 5 or 6 in the cycle. The fact that Phage easily pointed out how many exist and that many more must have existed in the past is very fascinating.

Obviously, the fact that comes out of all of this is that these earthquake cycles run until they run out of energy, or get out of phase.

The fact that they would have to run out of energy or get out of phase is also a fact since other earthquakes and volcanic eruptions would disturb the already existing earthquake cycles.

I'm just glad that Phage pointed out the different cycles. Obviously, in the near future all earthquake scientists are going to take notice of these cycles, because they will be a "heads up" in long term earthquake forecasting.

Phage made a great scientific discovery in long term earthquake forecasting.

Originally posted by The Benevolent Adversary
having just read another thread where someone showed that the 188 cycle was only consistent for the last two years where there was a gap with no earthquake; it amuses me to note that your cycle goes back further without such a gap making it, at least in the short term, more consistant.

I'm sure most of the folks on ATS did some browsing to obtain the dates and track the EQs unless one is a professional in the field with access to the EQ data going back in time. Moreoever not many websites actually publish/published the Statistical Data to perform a analysis or trending with respect to multiple magnitudes of EQs and a possible cycle to them. I'm sure USGS and other such agencies might have tonnes of data for their
internal analytical purposes. I wish they would provide access to all the Dates, Magnitude, Latitude, Longitude to start someplace on the web (possibly free or for a nominal fee). I'm sure the extra set of amateur eyes might be able to spot some cyclical occurences.

Many times we assume and agree that the professionals know their jobs and know it all. Which might be a correct assumption only there is a human factor at any given point in time where person might forgets the basics and can often be led on a wild goose chase only to be reminded by an amateur or a subbordinate to perhaps follow a different approach. Atleast I certainly believe in extra set of eyes for anything involving analysis for certain subjects. This would be something equivalent to the amateur astronomers who often times come up with newly discovered objects in space.

Hope that gives a better picture of how I view it? I view it with a mind that is open to the possibility and receptive to how it would fit in well with how the rest of nature works once our observation ability is good enough to have enough information to see the patterns emerging.

reply to post by ErgoTheConfusion


Oh..ok. Then we are on the same page then. I too feel as though there could be a connection to cycles even though there isn't any hard evidence. I am however open minded to think....its very possible!

So far I have not seen anything conclusive to say one way or another. I have been looking the past year and half for clues as to what causes major EQ's to take place or an EQ for that matter. The digger I deep the more I find. Some has to do with precursors while other "finds" lead me on an entirely new goose chase. lol

In my opinion I feel as though everything is linked....connected. The Sun and the Moon play a major role on what takes place here with our planet and us as a whole. It's all electrically linked.

reply to post by ChaoticOrder

How is that a 232 day cycle when only one of them is 232 days?

The 188 day cycle is much more precise:

Fair enough. I was giving it enough range to include the Mexican quake on the 20th in the 188 day cycle (actually closer to 189 days). But since that cycle seems to be broken without including that quake the point would seem to be moot.

But you did cause me to refine my search routine. Narrowing the range to a 24 hour period (12 hours before, 12 hours after) does change things but there have been other broken cycles (with more than 3 repetitions). Searching for dead cycles is a slow process so I didn't take it very far.
A 220 day cycle which died 05/16/06
A 228 day cycle which died 11/19/99
A 355 day cycle which died 10/17/90
A 365 day cycle (!) which died on 09/29/2010

Based on the 24 hour requirement the following cycles are still available:

1266 days. 4 repetitions. The last on 10/07/2009. The "next" 03/26/2013.
1010 days. 4 repetitions. The last on 12/25/2010. The "next" 09/30/2013.
1108 days. 4 repetitions. The last on 12/21/2010. The "next" 01/02/2014.

Originally posted by Under Water
I agree that the evidence to the 188 cycle did leave out certain earthquakes that fell outside of that frame, but who's to say there aren't multiple cycles and multiple causes of earthquakes. Maybe what causes those earthquakes every 188 days isn't the same thing that causes other earthquakes. Just trying to keep an open mind. With everything we now know in modern times, there's still so much we don't understand.

Or perhaps there's an even simpler explanation, maybe...

It's just random !!

But on a serious note, people try to hard to find complexities, ever come to think some natural events are purely random? Thats like trying to find a cycle for tornadoes, or hurricanes, or volcano eruptions, ect. Same aspect but fact is these are purely random natural occurrences.

(Although it is possible to find a pattern of the GENERAL time of a volcano eruption, like every xxx years or so but never an exact date, more like give or take a couple hundred years lol)

reply to post by Phage
There is no earthquake cycle,there are only factors that can determine an earthquake(s)'and one of those factors are solar flares respective to CMEs respective to geomagnetic field ,not as a direct cause but adjacent in certain conditions corroborated with other factors,that we cannot associate yet with one another.

This is my opinion.

And I know I read that thread.

Time will tell...

Bookmark this thread, and check it later...

Time will tell if big earthquakes happen in cycles or not...

Nicely documented proof that we can create many patterns from the various data.

Thanks for putting this together, I was thinking of doing this myself, but just wasn't that motivated.

I don't think this was trolling, just Phage with his non-insulting way of telling us we need to smarten up.

Why didn't anyone follow up? After 4.22.12 that is?

There were some notable EQ's around this time...

(just an example)

Tsk Tsk...so 233 days after 4.23.12 would be....TODAY!!

reply to post by drphilxr


And just now a 7.2 earthquake hit by Indonesia. Interesting.

reply to post by lcbjr1979


just saw that on twitter feed.... we should watch events

closely....

Major earthquake, BANDA SEA, Dec-10 16:53 UTC, 2 #temblor tweets/min, on.doi.gov...

reply to post by Phage


The 188 cycles had flaws. This sounds like it may have more merit. but why is the question. What forces are pulling on the planet, why did the ancients keep so much track of these dates. They say that it was for agriculture, but that does not make sense at all. Simply observing nature would accomplish that. For agriculture it would be better to watch the birds. Using the moon cycles fits agriculture better also. There is something more to this equinox thing.