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The defunct 2.7-ton German ROSAT satellite is slated to make a fiery, uncontrolled re-entry to our atmosphere sometime Saturday or Sunday (Oct. 22 or 23). Experts say the broken-up bits of ROSAT have a roughly 1-in-2,000 chance of hitting someone somewhere on Earth.
DLR projections suggest that up to 30 individual ROSAT pieces, with a total mass of up to 1.7 tons, might reach Earth's surface. The satellite's X-ray optical system, or at least a chunk of it, could be the heaviest single component to reach the ground. The fragments that do hit Earth could be travelling as fast as 280 mph (450 kph).
The likelihood of a person getting injured as a result of the re-entry is still extremely low. The probability of someone somewhere on Earth getting hit is about 1 in 2,000. Those odds are for any one of the nearly 7 billion people on the planet.