Introduction & Real-Time Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) Disturbance

Good morning to everyone on ATS! I have been a lurker for a while now, and my friend and I found something incredibly interesting - real-time ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) disturbance being measured by Australia's Gov't. I didn't really want to post until I had something that would contribute significant value, and then I found this and I can't post outside of the Intro forum because I have less than 20 posts. I know this is the wrong forum to post this, but perhaps if this receives enough attention, an admin can move it to the Fragile Earth forum.

Firstly, while reading about some of the ionosphere disturbances, I discovered this Aussie website.

www.ips.gov.au...




The numbers at the bottom of the graph are "day of the year." Today is the 89th day of the year. Japan's 8.9 earthquake happened days 19 ago, on the 70th day of the year. Look at the corresponding drop!

Note the week-long buildup - and then, sudden drops.

EACH DROP CORRELATES TO AN EARTHQUAKE!

March 2nd, 61st day of the year, 6.2M earthquake in Panama.
All of the small drops between 75th-80th day of the year correlate directly to the earthquake data found here:

earthquake.usgs.gov...

What do you guys think???? Can this be debunked?

So the longer and higher the "warmup", the more significant the downswing - ie the higher the magnitude earthquake! Look at the week before Japan quake - super high for almost a week - Then a huge drop. TEC daily activity - at night the TEC drops to zero.

Also note the amp-up this past week, and the small drop today! This correlates to the girl in CA predicting something big on the 31st.

And could possibly explain the sky rumbling - the electromagnetic/ionosphere storms!

www.ann-geophys.net...

Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies registered by continuous GPS TEC measurements

Abstract. In this paper we examine pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by the total electron content (TEC) derived from a ground-based receiver of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A 15-day running median of the TEC and the associated inter-quartile range (IQR) are utilized as a reference for identifying abnormal signals during all of the 20M≥6.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area from September 1999 to December 2002. Results show that the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appear during 18:00–22:00LT (LT=UT+8h) within 5 days prior to 16 of the 20M≥6.0 earthquakes. This success rate of 80% (=16/20%) suggests that the GPS TEC is useful to register pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appearing before large earthquakes.

Terrific first post - S&F!

Now if I'm understanding this correctly, then as this graph updates every 60 minutes, we should see the readings continue in the negatives? It appears that the earthquakes hit once there's a drop in TEC, and from the looks of it, the drop has begun. If this is all correct, then if we get through the next 12 hours without a rumble, we're in good shape, as far as the TEC window says.

Nothing like hitting "refresh" every hour. But I've done it before. Good find!

reply to post by chasingbrahman


good find....flag and star

Great first post and thanks, now I have another website I am going to have to check daily..........ugghhh

-Kdial1

...and the reading is back above zero. Hmmm.

I can't correlate the data myself, mostly because I am too lazy to think of a comprehensive way to do so. Probably an excel file, or something, but since you've already started the process, I have a question:

Are there large earthquakes not associated with drops on these graphs?

Oh, I've also got another one:

Are there records of the same data for the Haiti Earthquake and the Indonesian Tsunami Earthquake?

reply to


Notice that there is a data gap between Aug 2009 - Feb 2010. The Haiti Earthquake was Jan 2010.

Weird?
www.ips.gov.au...

Total Electron Content is a measure of the amount of ions trapped within the magnetosphere. It is of concern to satellite operators.

Whenever there is an increase in geomagnetic activity, the TEC is seen to drop. The activity causes the ions to precipitate at the magnetic poles. If the activity is strong enough it creates auroral displays when the ions encounter the neutral atoms of the upper atmosphere.

There is little evidence of a relationship between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by tacjtg

Can this be debunked?

I leave it to you to decide if this debunks it!

reply to [url= by PuterMan[/url]


Wow. Perhaps the correlations are not nearly as strong as once thought. Thank you for pointing that out PuterMan!

Here is a plot before the Japan earthquake on 03/11/2011

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/43000188f86f.png[/atsimg]

Here is a plot of the Chile quake on 02/27/2010 which was a 8.8 quake

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2c063760f17e.png[/atsimg]

So there seems to be no causes or indicators related between the solar flares and earthquakes,
in my opinion.

reply to post by kdog1982


To be fair (And thanks to you and puterman for answering the question I asked!), that doesn't necessarily mean that there is no connection, only that there is not a necessary one.

I don't think there's a connection, but it could still be that some quakes are caused by solar flares and whatnot, and that most have the traditional "Plates move that way" cause. I suspect that the "official" science is right, but there does seem to be enough evidence to at least make us wonder.

At least, when we don't have refutations like the one Phage linked to, hehe!

reply to post by Solasis


Hey,I was totally on board with the quake-solar flare connection til I delved deep into it and research.
Then many doubts clouded my mind.
Doesn't mean that there is or is not a connection.

Originally posted by Phage
Total Electron Content is a measure of the amount of ions trapped within the magnetosphere. It is of concern to satellite operators.

Whenever there is an increase in geomagnetic activity, the TEC is seen to drop. The activity causes the ions to precipitate at the magnetic poles. If the activity is strong enough it creates auroral displays when the ions encounter the neutral atoms of the upper atmosphere.

There is little evidence of a relationship between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

But, could activity in the ionosphere be a syptom of Solar events which may correlate with quakes.

I'm talking here, primarily, of Neutron flux, with particular reference to what causes Neutrinos to change type & what sort of energies they may release, taken over the mass of the Earth.

Warning: I am gonna mention the dreaded word below:


As this is measuring 'ionospheric disturbance',
would there be any correlation to activity from HAARP?

Doesn't HAARP screw with the ionosphere?


(there, mentioned it twice)

reply to post by tacjtg


I was thinking that I once read that the way HAARP creates earthquakes is to expand the ionosphere in some way to make it cause an earthquake. Maybe that is what is regisering on the Aussie website?

Oops, yeah what the last guy said too. Missed your post. I'm glad I wasn't imangining that. It's HAARP!!!

Excellent First Post/Thread

S+F

Originally posted by Phage
There is little evidence of a relationship between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Oh Phage there may be early research but an 80% correlation is certainly more significant or it being an signal of an approaching one, do as you preach eh?

This success rate of 80% (=16/20%) suggests that the GPS TEC is useful to register pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appearing before large earthquakes.

And I will listen to these guys not you, do the same OP as you would normally be fighting to defend them if it was now accepted and mainstream eh?

J. Y. Liu1,2, Y. J. Chuo3, S. J. Shan1, Y. B. Tsai4, Y. I. Chen5, S. A. Pulinets6, and S. B. Yu7
1Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Taiwan
2Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Taiwan
3Department of Information Management, Ling-Tung College, Taiwan
4Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan
5Institute of Statistics, National Central University, Taiwan
6Institute of Geophysics, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico
7Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan

reply to post by tacjtg

Originally posted by PuterMan

Can this be debunked?

>snip< image
I leave it to you to decide if this debunks it!

Nice visuals does actually show the proposed correlation in some places, but being a man of science and DATA look at the paper and then debunk from that, not one chart "the smoking gun?"

Excellent first thread OP thanks for bringing this info to us, I have not seen this research before, and I dare say those who debunk it hadnt either, or looked at it properly before replying.

Dont be shy in bringing more threads when can in the future.

Kind Regards,

Elf

double post sorry pls delete