N. Korea Crisis - Updated as News come to hand

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Civilian casualities reported on the SK island!! + 4 South Korean soldiers wounded!!

Uh ho... NOT GOOD AT ALL.

edit on 23-11-2010 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

Direct attack against civilian area. This may be some sort of "rite of passage to adulthood" , for Kim Jon Un, to replace his father. Now he's officially a dictator and murderer.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f57ccb96e7c0.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by phatpackage


Read what I posted above. Cheerleading is not going to get you anywhere. You will not realize that you need to learn more about this situation until you admit you don't know everything.

Even if we carpet nuke North Korea, they will retain significant retaliatory capability, and if we nuke North Korea, China will certainly retaliate against us as we will effectively be attacking China with massive clouds of fallout.

This situation is not as simple as you want to believe.

Originally posted by oozyism

Originally posted by asperetty

i don't want to keep this up.

if the US wanted to start a war, it would have. you cannot distract China with the Koreas because the US is equally involved on the opposite end, it would be launching two wars simultaneously and the US would have to be involved in both. 4 wars is truly too much.

It would equal to more than four wars. US army is too too stretched out, that is a huge disadvantage.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and N-Korea.

Don't forget, Iran is a Chinese ally, Iran can easily give a thumbs up to its underground Mehdi Army.

yeah that's my point that the US cannot have provoked this. china could not benefit from this until the US does collapse. meaning it truly could have been an accident this time by either one, im thinking north.

Originally posted by misterfarenheit
this is probably a provocative "muscle flex" on NK's part, as they have always claimed that they can turn seoul into a "sea of flames" within a matter of hours, and now they're finally delivering on that threat.

Also it could be the newly anointed kim jr. telling the world to pay attention to him.

very likely nothing will come of it, just like the cheonam thing

There not delivering on any threat about seoul in a sea of flames what delivery was there except a few artillary rounds.

The timing is quite odd considering that North and South were conducting Red Cross talks, which have now been indefinitely postponed. Perhaps the North thought that they were getting a little too chummy with the South, perhaps the North’s leadership and the military are fracturing or perhaps it was a miscommunication.

Having said that, yesterday when the Red Cross talks began, South Korean Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young was asked whether US tactical nuclear weapons would return to South Korea and he replied that there was to be a review on the matter, which wasn’t particularly tactful. It is quite likely that the North is responding to this announcement, which it would probably see as a provocation.

Originally posted by Doyle
Look what happened over the sinking of the SK ship, and there were more casualties in that incident for the South Koreans. We are through the danger zone and out of the worst on this incident and it will be business as usual except that now SK have indefinately suspended Red Cross aid talks with NK and some fluctuations in the markets. There will be a tomorrow!

It is most certainly looking that way. If the same thing was done to the US, Britain, Russia, China or Turkey it would be game over for the opposition very quickly, no doubt about it!. I wonder how long SK will cop this! Surely they are not that wimpy? To put it another way now "Both cheeks" (sinking of the ship & now this) have been busted open what do they have left to turn?

It's pretty sad that they cannot just get along. They're the same people, they're essentially the same country.

The last i heard was that SK had scrambled jets to retaliate so we'll see where it goes from now on. The West just need to stay well clear. No-ones got the money or the desire to get involved in another pointless war.

Originally posted by HattoriHanzou
As long as Seoul has not been evacuated, we know that S. Korea is not preparing for total war. We have no good information on the preparations across the border, in the North, as the only news out of there is either heavily censored or months old.

The possibility exists that Seoul will not be evacuated (except for the wealthy and powerful) even if it is believed that a North Korean attack is immanent. The reason that it might not be evacuated, is that if war with North Korea is truly desired, massive civilian casualties would provide both a casus belli and an excuse for South Korea and America to retaliate massively.

If Seoul was being evacuated, would SK want NK to know it? Surely there would be a media blackout in case NK uses the opportunity to take as many lives as possible?

There's obviously a plan in place, but how far we are along that plan is anyone's guess. I couldn't imagine they'd evacuate Seoul just yet, but I'm certain those in positions of authority are in their bunkers "just in case"

Hong says China expresses concern over the situation, but is still working to verify the situation.

He also said China hopes all relevant parties "do more to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula."

www.voanews.com...

reply to post by phatpackage


What can they do? Just charge?

Please read the North Korea Area Handbook www.fas.org... as it will help enlighten you as to why this is a classic Mexican standoff. If you don't want to read the whole thing, read the executive summary. If you don't even want to do that, listen to what I have to say here:

North Korea will destroy Seoul if it is attacked with any great force. North Korea has underground facilities which can produce tanks, aircraft, and munitions. It would be a very very difficult gamble to attack them, even if we discount China's reaction.

reply to post by Liamoville


Unfortunately the USA has troops there already, the entire peninsular is effectively the front line, and is treaty bound to escalate the numbers and defend the South with full military might, so if, big if, this exchange of fire escalates there is no chance the West will stay out of the conflict.

reply to post by detachedindividual


South Korea is considering the evacuation of their citizens currently working at inter-Korean facilities in North Korea. If they go ahead with the evacuation, it could get extremely hairy.

reply to post by HattoriHanzou

you need to learn more about this situation until you admit you don't know everything.

OK I'll swallow that but I obviously understand it more than you! seeing you want be that way!

Even if we carpet nuke North Korea, they will retain significant retaliatory capability,

Sounds a little contradictory. If the US did that to them there would be nothing left! Maybe a few lone solo fighters who survived the blasts but nothing significant

This situation is not as simple as you want to believe

Maybe it is!

reply to post by detachedindividual


Seoul is like 12 miles from the border they can be seen with the naked eye zero chance of a secret evacuation.

reply to post by detachedindividual



That's a good point, but with Twitter and Facebook and everything else, there is just no way that such an evacuation could be kept a secret. North Korea has extensively infiltrated the south, as well.

Yes, there are bunkers, and in fact the top brass and leaders of the south have already relocated to them. I do not know if they are in Seoul, or outside it. I would expect that there are several sets, which are linked in some fashion.

Again, we do not have any information on North Korea at this time. South Korea's preparations can easily be ascertained by tweets and status updates and youtube videos.

This gal knows what to do with North Korea...





And for Kim Jong Il's son... What about we save on the war budget and hire him some prostitute?

Originally posted by backinblack
Why, without knowing the details, is everyone blaming the North??
I just don't get it from ATS members that usually seek the answers first..
Answers we may take a while to find..
Things are not always as they seem.. [/quote


Finally a voice of reason , someone who can think for themself . Wish there were more like you .Mankind would have a chance . Well done .

Originally posted by HattoriHanzou
reply to post by phatpackage

 

It would be a very very difficult gamble to attack them, even if we discount China's reaction.

Not really. US military could defeat them without even a solider setting foot on their land if they wanted to. Sure Seoul (big call) might go but there comes a time to fight. NK cannot expect to get away with humiliating SK like this. SK has pride, it will rise! Rest assured NK will be defeated & none of the Jihadist dreams stated earlier in this thread will come true!

reply to post by oozyism


We only have a little over 10% of our forces deployed.

10% of volunteer forces. We still have a massive pool(even illegal aliens and resident aliens are not exempt) to conscript from in the event of a major conflict.

In World War 2 we fielded over 16 million troops. We currently have over 100 million citzens and foreigners that could be conscripted.

reply to post by phatpackage


It's clear that you don't want to read a good, reliable, and informative publication which will help enlighten you.

Let me say, that nukes do not do a whole damn lot of good when you are fighting country that has honeycombed every mountain with tunnels. They have underground hydroelectric facilities which supply power for underground factories where they can make everything from bullets to tanks to aircraft. There are dozens of airstrips which emerge from the mountainside in North Korea. The hangars are protected by nuclear proof steel doors that were kindly installed by the Germans in the 1990s!

Under Pyongyang itself there are nuclear-hardened shelters which can house TWO MILLION PEOPLE FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS!

So, please, read the Area Handbook. It will really help you out. You seem to be laboring under the illusion that we can just flick a few nukes at North Korea and be done with it. That is false because of two main reasons. First, we would simply kill a bunch of peasants while the military retreats underground. Second, China would not stand for it, and would almost certainly retaliate, as if we nuke North Korea we would also, in effect, be nuking China or at least contaminating it with massive fallout.