Are you prepared for the Oil crash and the end of our current way of life?

The Modern World, as we know it, is going to end in the next few decades.

I'm not talking about 2012 or another World War. I'm talking about peak oil and the end of the Oil age. This is not conspiracy theory. This could happening right now.

Almost every aspect of modern life is dependent on Oil. Transport, mechanised agriculture (Food), energy production, manufacturing and construction are almost completely reliant on it.

Just for perspective, here’s a list of items made from, or using oil :

Petrol, Diesel, Aviation fuel, Rocket fuel, All Plastics, All paints, All mobile battery technology such as cell phones and laptops, Computer chips, Fertilizer, Explosives, Car tyres, Certain types of clothing and footwear, Asphalt roads, Detergent, Pharmaceuticals, Solvents, Bearing Grease, Ink, Insecticide, Food preservatives, Purses, Deodorant, Putty, Dyes, Epoxy, Linoleum, Synthetic rubber, Antifreeze, Balloons and literally hundreds more..

The importance of Oil in modern life cannot be underestimated. As such, you should be aware that between 40 and 45 countries around the World have already passed their peak production.

'Peak production', meaning that at no point in the future will those countries ever again be capable of producing the same amount of oil that they did at their peak. These countries are therefore in production decline, and declining quickly.

Some figures :

www.theoildrum.com...

United States, peaked in 1970.
Iran, peaked in 1974.
Iraq, peaked in 1979.
United Kingdom, peaked in 1999.

Some will tell you that peak oil figures aren’t reliable, and yes, they may vary depending on which reports you happen to read. Personally I think the problem is likely to be even worse that what’s publicly known, as countries have been known to vastly bump up their estimated reserves to protect their production quota from OPEC. Country ‘A’ says they have a certain, agreeable number in reserve, and OPEC retains or increases the quota the country is allowed to produce, thus earning more money for that country. If a country admits it’s production is dwindling, OPEC reduces the quota to protect the reserves that are still in that country. Of course, if country A bumps itself up, country B may be losing out, and so they do the same thing. It’s all about getting money into their country.

You’ll note in that list there are only 14 countries listed as ‘growing’ , and those that are have relatively small reserves, with the exception of Saudi Arabia who have a very large oil field, amounting to 25% of the remaining unrefined Oil in the World. However, this is simply not enough to go around. There is no doubt that oil is getting harder and harder to find, with 2/3rd’s of the world’s oil currently coming from oil fields discovered before 1970.

Oil companies are resorting to searching for fields that are deeper and harder to access. This in turn is more expensive and requires the expenditure of more energy to extract it. Thus, eventually, the net Oil recovered is not worth the energy spent to reach it in the first place. The era of cheap, abundant energy is almost over.

Given the ever increasing world population and ever increasing demand for oil, it’s usage cannot be sustained into the future. As Oil production continues to decline, we’ll begin to see economic and sociological repercussions, as all economies are fundamentally linked to Oil. Many believe that the current recession is a symptom of the production decline, in tandem with overzealous banking practises.

Excellent articles here :

anythingexceptthetruth.blogspot.com...
www.energybulletin.net...
www.commondreams.org...

So why is the World economy fundamentally linked to Oil?

I’ll be quoting Mike Ruppert here because he can explain it far more articulately than I can.

Money is fiat currency. It’s nothing, just paper. In the past, Gold or Silver were used as currency because it’s real, it’s something of value. Paper has no value. Today, energy(oil) is what backs this meaningless fiat. The world economy is based on petro-dollars, and without the oil, those dollars are worth nothing. So, Oil is the only real currency in the world economy.

To quote Mike :

“ You cannot print any more money than there is energy to back it up.”

The fractional reserve banking system requires more and more money to be created from thin air and loaned into circulation (with interest) to be sustainable. It requires infinite growth. However, to have all this extra money in circulation, you also need more energy(Oil) to back it up. But infinite growth is not compatible with finite energy. As the growth continues, it eventually comes to a point where the declining oil reserves aren’t enough to back up the amount of petro-dollars in circulation. Right now, the recession has decreased the demand for oil, as recession’s always do due to decreased construction, travel and various money saving efforts on behalf of companies and individuals alike.

www.bi-me.com...

With decreased demand comes lower oil prices and things balance out for a while. Eventually though, prices will rise as reserves dwindle and again the economy is plunged into chaos. You may have heard the term ‘double dip’ in relation to the recession. Well this will be a multiple dip or ‘undulating plateau’ recession as the price of oil continues to fluctuate.

This is illustrated below :

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1adffb9b466c.jpg[/atsimg]


As you can see, this plateau is expected to last for what could be 5, 10 or 20 years, but it will continue in a ‘long decline’ until oil reserves get so low and the price in turn gets high enough that nobody can afford it. This is known as the Oil crash, or collapse.

The world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice as large) and much more industrialised (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

There will be a gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline. Agriculture (massive food shortages) depends heavily on fertilizers and chemicals made from oil and will be greatly affected. Shortages of other goods made from oil. Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity. Very serious unemployment. Money will be worthless.

Almost everything we’ve taken for granted in our technological age will be gone. There will be a very real threat of starvation for a large part of the World’s population. Being self sufficient or having local resources will be the only way forward.

Below is a chart showing the Human Races’ population growth in relation to our oil use.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/27b16802d948.png[/atsimg]


There’s no doubt the increase in population is directly related to our discovery and use of fossil fuel. A momentary blip on our evolutionary path. For thousands of years the population is believed to have hovered just under the 1 Billion mark, roughly. If it stayed the same for so long, it seems to me that that’s the natural number of human beings the Earth can comfortably sustain and support. Natural evolution. Many believe a massive depopulation due to famine and illness is the likely result of this collapse, and is the only way the human race will return to a natural number that the earth can sustain. It remains to be seen if we can come up with an alternative energy source before this happens, but many experts believe current alternative energies will fall far short of demand, especially in the face of ever increasing population. It all depends on how accurate the oil reserve estimates are. If many of the experts are underestimating the reserves then there’s time to do something about this, but whether the World’s governments will take action remains to be seen.

A few videos for those interested in hearing more :

A prediction of economic decline from 05 based on peak oil.






I realise this has been discussed on ATS before, but I think it’s no harm to have it discussed again, as it seems to have been a while. Anyone who finds this interesting is welcome to agree, disagree, attempt to debunk it or call me an alarmist, as you like. But regardless of whether this is happening now, soon or is still some way off, it WILL happen. I remain hopeful an alternative will be in place by the time the Oil is depleted, but I’m skeptical that we’ll have enough time given progress so far.

P.S. I’d appreciate if this thread wasn’t used as a vehicle to discuss U.S. Military policy and motivations in the Middle east, thanks.

2030...good lord...Let's get off the panic horse here...This gives you 29 years to slowly adapt to a new way of living.....Not enough for you ??? Ok try this got an exercise, go to your local car parts store, get a 12 volt deep cycle battery and a cheep solar panel, start with that and learn how it works and how much power you can draw off of that and work your way to better performing technologies after that....LOL. Petrol will never go away completely...Heck I'm absolutely positive that right now you are typing away on a plastic keyboard looking at your nice contoured flat screen monitor next to your plastic telephone.

It's free market finally getting the upper hand on oil I guess and the interest of people to try something new as a renewable source of energy, I say new here because believe it or not...Even oil is renewable if we do it right.

reply to post by Project-Sign


Bollox. I hate these fear mongering threads that pay absolutely no mind to advances in technology. Yes if we lived in a vacuum stagnant universe where nothing ever changed, then peak oil would be a huge disaster. Are we running out of oil... maybe... that fact hasn't definitively been proven. Are their new technologies such as renewable energy, fusion and bioplastics being developed to replace the role that oil plays in our lives... yes. If you are going to post a thread about how we are running out of oil or clean water for that matter, at least pay lip service to technological research and development that might avert your crisis.

reply to post by Project-Sign


fair play, yes we are going to run out, but it doesnt have to end badly at all really, the scientific breakthroughs will counter it i believe. and just think if we get to the point of manifestion matter and using devices which dont require lubrication? antigravity and liquid mercury.
I think maybe its a good thing getting rid of the oil maybe we were never supposed to go down that road? you have to burn the oil to liberate the energy from it and that has a bad effect on the enviroment, however i am not supporting the apparent fact that its us causing the ever so rapidlly increasing weather changes, but it has bad effects compared to say free energy devices that we could run our houses on for free and green the deserts.
Some people are playing a monopoly game, and there killing the planet, there will be a point where this thing gets too much, its already happening now, we all saw the gulf oil spill and the figures are coming out that theres a plume under there the size of everest? wtf, why did it have to be so big, hmmmmmmmmm.

end of the day we've all gotta make our own judgement on the oil aspect and yes there are ups and downs.

nice thread

reply to post by pkpuck
What a load! We are NOT running out. Before the huge oil find in Texas, we already had enough oil to last 1,000 years at current consumption, without a drop of foreign oil. But the Progressive Communist Demorats won't 'allow' us to use our own oil. Further, it is an assumption that oil is a fossil fuel. Russia is currently stating that they are finding depleted oil wells are refilling from deep inside the earth. And spacecraft have found oil on moons in this system, that never had life. So... what were you saying?

More scaremongering????????????

YES, I look forward to the Oil crash because it will be a significant part of our prison walls crumbling away.

They have sat on alternative technology patents for decades. Despite their intimidation new ones are managing to get past their best efforts to block it, and are emerging.

GET RID OF OIL. It ruins our beautiful earth, it is a means of blackmailing and controlling us and other countries, it is the cause of many wars. WE DON'T NEED OIL.


ps. We don't need scaremongering either.

reply to post by Gregarious


ok yer just carry on using your motor, lar de dar de dar, singing everythings gonna be alright?
Our thought patterns are clearly different and you clearly sont get what im trying to say.
i have no need to discuss anything with you.

bye

reply to post by Gregarious


1000 years.? Have you actually read any data on the subject? And yes, oil on moons in our solar system, that'll help. It'd use up more oil in construction and rocket fuel than you'd be able to bring back to Earth. Your entire post was nonsense, but thanks for sharing your opinion.

reply to post by Fox Molder


2030 is an optimistic timeframe. It could happen at any time. Given the varying reports on existing oil reserves, it's very hard to say when.

reply to post by wisintel


Yes it has been proven. Oil is a non - renewable source of energy. There you go, proven. We will run out eventually, just a case of when.

Oil on moons without life means that our oil has not been a waste product of organic matter.
This means the oil comes from something else and we don't know if it is renewable or not. Apparently the Russians think it is...

Make sure your children take riding lessons, buy 2 acres per horse you plan to keep.
Learning to ride and how to use a horse to plow up your front and back yards may be essential.

Just switch from the crap in the ground to make all the products and replace it with HEMP!! Hemp plants can be used to make everything we use oil for currently, but better, longer lasting, better for our environment, for less money all here in the good old USA! It can be used to make 100% of all paper products without cutting down anymore trees ever. It grows faster than a tree ever could in a much smaller foot print as well. It's really a no doubt about it subject really. Hemp is way better and can be transitioned fairly quickly without missing a beat. Then we can be 100% self made in all of our products and bye bye to all the cash going to Saudi and all the other mud hut countries we send our cash to for oil. Simple done deal.

Actually even if we are not running out of oil we should still be switching to Hemp anyways! just because it's better period!

You know, i'm going to mention something that is related,but not said. All the oil that they took out. You know that they are leaving massive holes everywhere underground. Maybe one day texas,louisianna or the gulf will sink into deep massive holes. Not the whole state, but earth below them will just start to sink. Have you not noticed more sink holes on earth happenning? They everywhere, they cannot all be caused by water.

reply to post by nite owl


2030. That's 20 years of many technological breakthroughs. By then, I believe we would have found some alternative source. Having said that, if all crap goes to hell. I will be in my fourties, not giving a #, having learnt all thats necessary to live a life without oil dependancies.

reply to post by Project-Sign


Abiotic oil.

www.viewzone.com...

Together with two research colleagues, Vladimir Kutcherov has simulated the process involving pressure and heat that occurs naturally in the inner layers of the earth, the process that generates hydrocarbon, the primary component in oil and natural gas.

According to Vladimir Kutcherov, the findings are a clear indication that the oil supply is not about to end, which researchers and experts in the field have long feared.

But I'm all for the cessation of burning hydrocarbon b.s. Gravitational and magnetic seem much more appropriate directions for the sort of environment we'd consider healthy and habitable.

reply to post by Project-Sign


OK with me so long as it applies to everyone equally and I mean EVERYONE no matter how much money they have.

reply to post by Project-Sign


We do not have a problem with liquid fuel for at least 200 years.

Coal to oil technology has existed since WW2.

The state of Illinois alone has more coal to oil capability than all of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves.

Algae oil is the true answer, we can farm liquid fuel with up to 100,000 gallons per acre.

After witnessing The complete farce that has been the G10 , G12 , G20's attempts to agree on ways to save the planet from climate change , ecological damage , saving the rainforest , saving whales , saving anything really..........its fair to say that agreeing on anything is a complete bollocks.
250 , 000 people were killed by the earthquake in Haiti. £millions were donated by people all over the world , and a huge percentage of the aid hasn't even got there , and now to make matters worse , there is a cholera outbreak thats killed over 1000 people while hundreds of thousands of people are still living in tents.

Do I have faith that the governments of the world can put aside their self-serving "its all about me " attitudes and work together to find a renewable energy source and change the financial infrastructure of the whole planet ?

'fraid not.
people are just too greedy and selfish. The amount of species we have either made extinct or brought to the edge of extinction is shocking , yet we remain mostly ignorant of it because the companies who are exploiting wildlife , ecosystems , environment , climate , are too concerned with their own wealth to give a damn about any " concerns "