Asia getting ready for US collapse

I would like to add this new chunk of information which is relevent to the thread:

India is increasingly feeling hemmed in by China’s military might. It lies within the arc of operations of Chinese fighter jets based in Tibet. China is building or developing large ports in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Burma, and providing all these Indian Ocean countries with significant military and economic aid.

www.nytimes.com...

A huge pressure is mounting on India to leave the US alliance.

I said many times that US is stuck, India which the US wants to use, to counter Chinese + Iranian influence in the region doesn't want a US withdrawal.

So there is a dilemma now, if US troops leave Afghaistan leaving a weak government, India will not be happy with US (which will change the Indian alliance from US to Iran-China-Russia). If the US doesn't leave soon, more casualties + more frustration + more borrowed money + more anger = US collapse.

Let's not forget, India was against the US backing of Mujahideen, because before the Mujahideen there was a moderate governmnt in Afghanistan which was friendly to India.

While President Obama would like to withdraw from Afghanistan, Indian leaders remain afraid he will do precisely that. To Indians, Afghanistan is not a distant Central Asian country: it is historically part of the subcontinent. Empires as distant as the Harappans in the fourth millennium B.C. and as recent as the Mughals in the early modern era made Afghanistan, Pakistan and northern India part of the same polity. Indian elites carry this history in their bones.

and India's dissatisfaction of US involvement against the moderate regime of Afghanistan:

India wants a relatively benign and non-fundamentalist Afghanistan as a way of limiting Pakistan’s influence in the region. (That’s why India supported the Soviet-puppet Afghan leaders in the 1980s against the C.I.A.-backed mujahedeen.)

US is trying to give Afghanistan to India, incase of a collapse, so expect more deals such as this to come, and not to mention military deals:

Initially, the Afghani mineral resources were estimated at around USD 1 trillion. Now it turns out that the reserves are actually worth 3 times that initial estimate and have been presently valued at around USD 3.3 trillion. Sources have told CNBC-TV18 that being a strategic partner, Afghanistan is now actually looking at India to formalize an agreement for cooperation on mining through which Indian companies can go to Afghanistan and mine Afghani mineral resources.

www.moneycontrol.com...

reply to post by oozyism

Ooy
thank you for this thread
S&F

and to quote a very intelligent man
by the name of Ross Perot.

"You're gonna hear this giant
sucking sound !!!"

he was right then and as you just
pointed out, it's happening again
right now. Superpowers are shifting
in anticipation of a huge vacuum of
power getting ready to falter.

It is a def sign of things to come.
If we ourselves do not prepare, then
we are not as intelligent as we ought
to be.

reply to post by oozyism


No offense but you are totally wrong. But nice try. Lets see we have a large country with tons and natural resources and a army 10 times the size of every one else put together. Hmm my money is on the US going to all out war to save what it has left. I wonder if history and common sense back up what I am saying?

Originally posted by Subjective Truth
reply to post by oozyism

 

No offense but you are totally wrong. But nice try.

Lets see we have a large country with tons and natural resources and a army 10 times the size of every one else put together. Hmm my money is on the US going to all out war to save what it has left. I wonder if history and common sense back up what I am saying?

How is all out war gonna help the US?

All out war would mean huge destabilization of the world, meaning US citizens would get effected the most. Imagine the oil prices, the food prices, etc..

Last but not least, what would the objectives of this all out war be?

all the SE Asia 'developing' nations will soon out consume the former middle-class economy of
the former AAAmerica...as the USA declines into a 'A- ' economy & economic rating.

the only saving grace for the prestige of the Federalist USA is its nuclear arsenal(s), the one at the
homeland and the overseas nuclear arsenal of the former Pakistan...taken over for the safety of the world.


Sure they are 'getting ready'... but for the economic collapse...not for a militaristic collapse

reply to post by St Udio


Economic collapse means militaristic collapse also, hence they will not have sufficient funds to support the military bases all around the world + to pay bribes against hostile nations such as Pakistan.

How long do you think can manage these bases? If it is already runing on depth, and China owns more US dollar, than physical dollars even being in circulation, what does that mean?

Economic warfare always turns to military.

If US of A doesn't manage, then we all know what is gonna happen, an internal strife will begin (people won't sit back while the elite keep sending US troops and waste US dollar for no reason), that is the biggest worry of elites, I don't think the elite want to loose its military wing through a revolution in US, a revolution similar to Iran, where Americans take control of their government back.

Originally posted by ugie1028
Land grab here, land grab there, proxy war here n there....

Good one ugie! I started humming "Old McDonald had a farm" right away

Why not finish the lyrics?

Honestly, I found this thread really hard to read. I just can't wrap my mind around all these scenarios. It's too much.

First off, the U.S. won't collapse as a nation. It isn't going to go poof and be unrepresented.

Secondly, I do not believe there will be a land grab within the U.S. or anywhere in N.A. anytime soon. Even if we cut everything in half financially (which would put us some 1 trillion odd dollars under budget) we would still be spending more than the next 5 nations combined on defense spending. I am pretty sure we could defend ourselves on that budget.

As for the rest of the world, well, for every bad side of U.S. global dominance there has been a silver lining. My bet is the next guy at bat will not be any nicer.

I think the U.S. will go through a period of deep Austerity and close up a bit to the outside world while it gets it's house back in order. If the world wants to implode in the meantime..well... Have fun. We simply don't have the means nor the desire to extend ourselves anymore, as a people, and soon the politicians will be forced to bow that reality. We aren't going anywhere though, so don't make too much of a mess, you never know when the Eagle will soar again.

I am pessimistic about the near future for our nation and my people, but in the long run this will be an evolutionary event and the U.S.A. will be a changed beast at the end of the tunnel, for the better, of that I am confident.

Power to the people baby!

reply to post by Fiberx


I didn't claim there will be a land grab in NA. I said Asia.

When US collapses financially, it will have to move out of Asia, hence the majority of that region is anti-American, and they are pretty much sick of US being their Ayatollahs.

Those lands are very precious to US, even Japan and S-Korea.

It can't afford to loose them, it can't afford to loose Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, even Afghanistan is a great strategic territory the US needs.

It amuses me, somewhat, that people here seem to think that when they type out global scenarios that read like a dime store suspense novel...that this is what is really going to happen.

It amuses me less that so many people here seem to salivate at the prospect of the United States not just waning...but suffering some kind of catastrophic collapse. But we are all entitled to our own opinions, biases and fantasies.

No doubt if the U.S. were to utterly collapse...which it will not...there would be a lot of reshuffling of the power deck. And we could speculate endlessly about all of that.

However, all of this (in this thread) seems to be predicated on the assumption that America's complete collapse is "imminent." So, let's just focus on that for a moment. Based on what, exactly?

Because if that assertion is unfounded...or largely flawed...then the rest of the discussion is nothing more than anti-American folks passing the time.

Personally, I think that the U.S. has plenty of moves left in this chess game. And after the butt-kick that Obama just received in the mid-term elections, you can count on him getting a whole lot more aggressive on the job creation - and job protection - front.

That means, in my opinion, you are going to see a "bi-partisan" effort to address the currency issues created by China's refusal to let the Yuan float up, by the U.S. insisting on "Fair Trade" polices (as opposed to Free Trade) wherein countries will be expected to unilaterally level the international trade playing field in the areas of Wage Rates, Benefits, Workplace Safety, Environmental Controls, Taxation, Currency, Government Subsidies, Interest Rates etc.

Countries who do not abide by these Fair Trade rules (or cannot for some reason), will be subject to Tariffs on imports in to the USA (and maybe Canada and some other developed nations) designed to even up these unfair competitive factors.

America has lost a huge percentage of its manufacturing base (as has Canada) to Countries with very low wages, dismal working conditions, no environmental controls, etc. China, in particular, has run wild during this period...and is now making the mistake of taking the U.S. on directly on a number of fronts.

1) They are not allowing the Yuan to float, which continues to put U.S. domestic industry at a huge disadvantage against their Imports.
2) They held up Rare Earth mineral shipments to the U.S., as well as Japan, recently...big stick in the eye, and a very big strategic error on China's part.
3) The are making it quite clear that they are prepared to the let the rest of the world suffer while they take their time adjusting away from an export based economy...meaning that the unemployed in America and elsewhere can rest assured that if China has its way, things will only get worse.
4) China's not-so-subtle recent shows of military prowess, are also danger signs the U.S.A. can no longer ignore...as they are funding the growth of these forces directly through the massive trade imbalances between America and China (running at about $250 Billion per year...that's $1 Trillion dollars since 2006 folks).

I could go on...but really, the political and economic climate in America is going to force them to put a stop to the unfair trade practices of China (and a few others) in order to get their own people back to work, and to begin to balance the books (Trade and Deficit).

And, by the way, because the Chinese economy is so heavily geared toward exports...if the U.S. decides to really put up full effect tariffs - it would be the Chinese economy you would see go into a rapid nosedive. They do not yet have a large enough middle class to take up the production loss (that's why they are stalling on currency reform).

Don't count out Uncle Sam (or his close buddies) just yet. The American people have had just about enough of Government policies that encourage their own industries to set up shop everywhere but in America...and they are demanding change.

The newly empowered Republicans will be more than happy to accommodate - and Obama does not want to be a one-term President, so he is going have to do what needs to be done to get America moving again.

As I say, I do not buy the central premise of this thread...America has lots left. It is just going to stop playing the fool (as it has done with China and others), on "Free Trade" initiatives whereby it gives free access to its mammoth markets while getting shut out of those of its trading "partners".

Japan, China, and USA announced today an Asian-Pacific free trade pact APEC.

Looks like a contender against the EU?

www.bbc.co.uk...

reply to post by babybunnies


Quote from source...

Washington wants to increase its own exports to the region, and believes China's cheap currency is a barrier to that goal.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has said any change will only be made at Beijing's own pace.

And that's where this, so-called, agreement will go to die.

The Chinese seem to think they can have everything their way. I think that is about to...of necessity, must...change.

reply to post by mobiusmale


The reasoning behind US collapse revolves around Afghanistan.

How will US of A get out of this mess?

It has in one hand invested too much to get out.

In the other hand if it gets out, US won't have any allies in that region, which will also be a sign of weakness, and expect revolutions throughout the region against US presence, and against US puppets, and expect US hand to be cut from the rich oil fields. India is the only ally US have in that region, and India doesn't support a withdrawal from Afghanistan.

If India takes its support away from the US, it will join Iran/Chinese Alliance.

So the question of the collapse revolves around Afghanistan.

How many casualties is the empire willing to take?

How long before the American people wake up, and smell the mess the elites have got them in, that is when internal divisions come in play.

....

I can go on.

Take a look at this. www.youtube.com... oozypropagandaman.

Originally posted by Subjective Truth
reply to post by oozyism

 

No offense but you are totally wrong. But nice try.

Lets see we have a large country with tons and natural resources and a army 10 times the size of every one else put together. Hmm my money is on the US going to all out war to save what it has left. I wonder if history and common sense back up what I am saying?

This is incorrect. While the USA may spend more on its military than anyone else, by headcount, there are several militaries much stronger than the USA.

USA spends a lot of money on its military, but doesn't spend it wisely, and blabs to just about anyone who will listen as to what power they have. While there are certainly military programs that we don't know about, in comparison to other countries, US military and political secrecy is a laughing stock.

China, on the other hand, has a huge military, and not much is known about secret programs they may have. Other countries, like Russia, North Korea, Iran also may have secret weapons programs that the West knows absolutely nothing about. They also have the political and military will to use things like chemical and biological weapons when needed, without having to worry about pesky items about how their press or citizens will react when they do so.

Even with the USA's so called "superior technology" in military hardware, China would squash them like a bug, first by crashing the US economy overnight, then taking out the US military.

Believe me, in a war with China, the first plays would be total economic chaos in the USA, before the military even gets involved.

China would win in almost every conventional weapon scenario. When nuclear weapons become involved, no one wins.

Hell, the US bills themselves as "the best military in the world" but supposedly can't even find a guy on dialasys living in a cave, and has been unable to fight a poorly funded, poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly disciplined enemy in two wars (three if you count Viet Nam), despite spending BILLIONS to do so.

You really think they stand a chance against a well funded, well equipped, well trained, well disciplined enemy, with the latest in Chinese technology backing them up?

Indeed these are exciting times. I am so happy to get to see how all of this will unfold! Whether it be a total collapse of our economy and government, a total re-enlightenment of our consciousness or even WWIII, bring it on! We need a huge, honkin bitch slap to get our priorities straight and our species evolving back in the right direction. This world of power, greed, vanity, racism, religious barriers and territorial lines must go! The clock has started. Don't just listen to the "doomsdayers". Do your own re-search and you will see, the fall is beginning, you can see it on the presidents face.
Tick. Tock.

!

Originally posted by babybunnies

This is incorrect. While the USA may spend more on its military than anyone else, by headcount, there are several militaries much stronger than the USA.

USA spends a lot of money on its military, but doesn't spend it wisely, and blabs to just about anyone who will listen as to what power they have. While there are certainly military programs that we don't know about, in comparison to other countries, US military and political secrecy is a laughing stock.

1) There is only one country in the world that has a larger standing armed force than the U.S.. That would be China (so I do not know who the other "several militaries" are).
2) Now, let's take a peak at the difference between America and China in terms of air power...22,700 to 2,400 - that's ten to one, sir.
3) How about naval power? 1,600 ships to 760. 11 Aircraft Carriers to 1. (etc., etc)

Sounds to me like the Americans have been getting some bang for their bucks...

China, on the other hand, has a huge military, and not much is known about secret programs they may have. Other countries, like Russia, North Korea, Iran also may have secret weapons programs that the West knows absolutely nothing about. They also have the political and military will to use things like chemical and biological weapons when needed, without having to worry about pesky items about how their press or citizens will react when they do so.

1) China has lots of boots on the ground, sure. And after the U.S. was finished with the pesky task of achieving complete air superiority, they would set about burying massive numbers of those occupying the boots.
2) How is it that you know that all of these countries have such advanced secret weapons programs...given that they are so secret and all?
3) You are quite right that some of these Countries might be more inclined to use WMD due to the lack of political accountability they have...which, if armed conflict was initiated, means they would be dealt with even more harshly than was Iraq and Afghanistan, where kid gloves were (and still are) used to avoid civilian casualties.

Even with the USA's so called "superior technology" in military hardware, China would squash them like a bug, first by crashing the US economy overnight, then taking out the US military.

Squash the U.S. like a bug? Wow. You are living in some kind of dreamland. If it ever came to this...let's pray that it doesn't...the reverse would be true. It doesn't matter that China has 1.3 billion people, versus 350 million in America. More than 80% of Chinese are poor farmers who are spread out across the country. The U.S. would only need to take out the Eastern (developed) sections...which would take somewhere between 15 minutes and 2 weeks (depending on how they went about it).

Lord help the Chinese people, if China decided to use its Sub force to launch an attack on the U.S. to try to stop the assault. Then it really would be all over in a matter of minutes - and most of China's retaliatory strike would be picked off on route. Sure America would take a few hits...but China would be completely gone.

Squash the U.S. like a bug...please.

Believe me, in a war with China, the first plays would be total economic chaos in the USA, before the military even gets involved.

China would win in almost every conventional weapon scenario. When nuclear weapons become involved, no one wins.

Name one conventional weapon scenario where China wins in a battle against U.S. forces. Using conventional forces, China can't even get at more than America's forward units in Japan, Korea and other places...and once they did, they would get absolutely swarmed by the real bulk of America's air and naval might - America can project its power. China cannot.

Hell, the US bills themselves as "the best military in the world" but supposedly can't even find a guy on dialasys living in a cave, and has been unable to fight a poorly funded, poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly disciplined enemy in two wars (three if you count Viet Nam), despite spending BILLIONS to do so.

You really think they stand a chance against a well funded, well equipped, well trained, well disciplined enemy, with the latest in Chinese technology backing them up?

Finding a single person in this big wide world is a lot tougher than taking down an organized conventional military force. And don't kid yourself, most of "the latest in Chinese technology" is our old technology that they have either stolen or bought.

reply to post by mobiusmale


I think you see war from a simplistic view, where air force + navy + boots collide.

The 21st century wars are much more complicated than that, hence it usually start economically, then there are proxy wars. Wars have objectives these days, you don't just go and destroy a the navy of a nation, or boots on the ground, or targets without clear cut objectives.

If those objectives are not met in the end of the day, then the war is failed. That is why most in the world saw Israel get defeated in Lebanon, because the goals of the war wasn't achieved.

Originally posted by oozyism
reply to post by mobiusmale

 

The reasoning behind US collapse revolves around Afghanistan.

How will US of A get out of this mess?

Well oozie...that is a good question. I suppose overall it will go the same route as America's involvement in Iraq. That is, they (and the other Allies) will continue to pour more resources into training of Afghan forces and infrastructure projects...including helping them to capitalize on their mineral resources, which will help to stabilize the economy and to modernize the Country.

Oddly, it may also involve the Taliban being allowed to reform as a political force inside the country. This might be the only way to get them to slow down (or maybe stop for a while) their insurgency.

But, at some point foreign "combat operations" would cease, as in Iraq...and be replaced by a more benign long-term training and advisory role.

Canada, for example, has set a dealine of 2011 to cease its combat role...but is now talking about keeping Armed Forces personnel beyond that date to work as trainers.

In the other hand if it gets out, US won't have any allies in that region, which will also be a sign of weakness, and expect revolutions throughout the region against US presence, and against US puppets, and expect US hand to be cut from the rich oil fields. India is the only ally US have in that region, and India doesn't support a withdrawal from Afghanistan.

If India takes its support away from the US, it will join Iran/Chinese Alliance.

I think you are piling assumptions on top of assumptions to think that the U.S. would ever be cut off from "the rich oil fields". First, there is too much money involved for the suppliers of said oil - and second, the U.S. considers its oil supply as of strategic importance, and so would take whatever steps are necessary to restore supply, if it was cut off.

Also, you might want to investigate the relationship between India and China (past and present) before jumping to the conclusion that India would jump into bed with China if America left Afghanistan (which it won't entirely). That is not going to happen.

So the question of the collapse revolves around Afghanistan.

How many casualties is the empire willing to take?

How long before the American people wake up, and smell the mess the elites have got them in, that is when internal divisions come in play.

So, you are seeing America completely collapsing...economically, militarily, politically...because of the Taliban's little insurgency? Boy, Afghanistan must be a really important place in the world...central to all things economic and political. Um...not.

This is a bit messy to be sure. But America will eventually wind its way out of day-to-day military operations there...like it has in Iraq. They will find ways to make those nations stronger, and the people there will eventually see themselves as American allies (like the people of Germany and Japan do today).

The extreme elements within Islam will continue to create problems because of their insistence on trying to kill anybody who does not accept their version of the faith...but sooner or later, their own people will but a stop to their foolish behaviour.