My Predictions concerning wars involving China

reply to post by Cthulwho

The economic crisis may have been intentionally created by the US in order to prepare the world for a blockade of China (I don't know how, but WW2 brought the world out of the great depression).

On the former, I doubt it. That’s too much counter-productive to the party in power. It almost guarantees that the IN party will be voted OUT. A very unlikely plan.

On the latter - your short answer is AMERICAN BENIGN STATISM! By 1940 the US was ramping up for WW2 which competent politicians knew long before the public understood the inevitability of war. Hey, that’s their jobs! Ordinary folk have to work for a living and don’t have time to know what politicians are paid to know.

WW2, often called the “last battle of WW1," starts officially on September 1, 1939. When Germany invaded Poland. OTOH some people say it started in 1931 when Japan invaded Manchuria, an autonomous region of China. The Second Sin0-Japanese War began in 1937. In May, 1940, Germany invaded France which ended on June 25, 1940, with the British evacuation at Dunkirk. Then followed a lull in heavy fighting until the Second World War began in earnest! On June 22, 1941, Germany invaded the USSR. In December, Japan attacked America making the war global!

From 1942 until the end of 1945 - 4 years - the nation’s economy was operated from W-DC. Rationing was in effect. Sugar. Coffee. Red meat. Chocolate. Cooking oil. Cigarettes were not rationed but the US Govt. bought 80% of the name brands for distribution to the soldiers, sailors and marines overseas. People at home had to smoke “Marvels” instead of Lucky Strikes, “Spuds” in place of Kools. And etc. Gasoline was never in short supply but it was drastically rationed, to save tires which nearly cost us the war. We had no rubber! We had to invent synthetic rubber almost instantly.

Everyone with a car got an “A” card. That entitled you to 3 gallons a month! “B” cards were issued to necessary drivers such as medical doctors who made house calls back in the good ole days.

Other essential services like police and fire also got “B” stickers. Each B card was allotted as much gas as he or she could prove they had used in 1941. “C” stickers were given to defense - say WAR back then - workers. You must car pool and get the signatures of your riders and your employer to qualify for a calculated amount based on the miles to drive divided by the mpg of your car. Leather for shoes was rationed. One new pair of shoes per year. Wool was in very short supply but not rationed. There just wasn’t any. Nylon was new and it was absolutely 100% to the military.

Savings were not forced, but to save 10% of your pay was the standard of a patriotic person. School children saved nickels and dimes towards a $18.75 cost of a $25 war bond. At the popular movies during the intermission between the 2 flicks was highlighted by pa announcements urging people to “go to the lobby and buy a war bond!”

Jobs. Everyone registered for work. People were assigned to a job that NEEDED their talent! No job hopping. War workers were given a half day off with pay for donating a pint of blood. Gallon clubs were popular and usually got a $25 war bond as a bonus! A factory that exceeded its quotas was awarded an Army-Navy "E" for Excellence flag to fly and the workers got lapel pins to wear.

Prices. The OPA - Office of Price Administration - fixed prices. It was illegal for landlords to raise rent or to take “under the table” money for needed repairs and maintenance. Black-marketeers were hunted down with dispatch and public trials were not uncommon.

Profits and Taxes. The top personal tax bracket rate was 91%. That applied to income over $200,000. Most people were making $4,000-$7,500. Corporations were charged a 20% EXCESS PROFITS tax. If your company made more during the War than it made in 1941, then the company had to pay the extra tax!

When the War ended, almost everyone had money in the bank. Maybe an amount equal to a whole years pay. There was a 4 years backlog of demand in cars, in houses, in refrigerators, farm tractors, and etc. Then, you add the GI Bill. Not wanting to re-run the horrible treatment given to our veterans at the end of WW1, the WW2 vets were offered a brand new house with NO money down! Why rent when you can OWN?

Every veteran with more than 90 days honorable service was eligible. That numbered about 15-16 million men (and a few women). Every veteran got his choice of tuition paid for a 4 year degree - or any technical school of his choice - or a monthly allowance for the 48 months to get a BA degree. If you went to a state school, you’d choose the monthly stipend because of cheap tuition, but if you chose a private school, you’d let the govt. pay the larger tuition and you’d get by some way. There’s more but I must end this somewhere.

You could say WE - the American people working in full harness with a GOOD government - STOMPED the Great Depression to Death! A rising tide floats all ships.

[edit on 5/2/2008 by donwhite]

Originally posted by donwhite
Australia is supplying China with iron ore, y that the US and PRC would engage in war proxy or direct, to have access to.

But remember that Australia also supplies Japan with Iron Ore . The economic rise of India and China hasn't yet resulted in higher demand and higher prices just yet . It is conceivable that this could change particularly if China and India continue or follow the trend of the booming economy meaning a car in every garage and so on . You also have to factor in the likes of construction of merchant and warships e.t.c .

So Iron Ore and other natural resources could well go the way of oil price wise.

reply to post by xpert11

But remember that Australia also supplies Japan with Iron Ore. The economic rise of India and China hasn't yet resulted in higher demand and higher prices just yet. It is conceivable that this could change particularly if China and India continue or follow the trend of the booming economy meaning a car in every garage and so on. You also have to factor in the likes of construction of merchant and warships etc. So Iron Ore and other natural resources could well go the way of oil price wise.

You are right Mr X11, as far as you go. OTOH, I am less optimistic about this air polluting condition and the possible outcome than you. Currently the Chinese are flagrantly disregarding the inevitable consequences of putting a new coal fired electric power plant on line - at the rate of one a week until 2010. Here’s why.

The CO2 sequestration cycle seems to be measured in decades. That means the CO2 now in the atmosphere and is the offending gas, was put there by the US and Europe. In the main. It may take 10-20-30 years for nature to sequester the existing CO2. Remove it. The bulk of the existing gas is NOT Chinese gas.

The Chinese say “No,“ they will NOT abide by US-EU set limits on CO2 until their emissions EQUAL those of the West! Tit for tat! The US - childlike - ignores the Chinese rationale, and says instead it won’t slow down its emissions unless China and India agree to slow theirs. America does not want to debate the Chinese argument. This is NOT just Bush43. Clinton could not introduce the Kyoto Treaty into the US Senate because he had maybe 15-20 votes out of the required 67. You don't ask to be humiliated.

Aside: A dramatic example of TOO much democracy. A worrisome theme I have argued elsewhere. There are only so many compromises (say private earmarks) available to “find” another 45-50 votes!

As for the price of Australian iron ore. I don’t know how much ore they have. I am under the impression that much of AU is covered by iron ore. If that’s the case, then AU ore will set the world price of iron ore for a long time to come. Like any other finite commodity, I am sure without knowing the producers hire 100s of so-called “resource economists” to calculate the point where higher price equals lower demand to maximizes profitability and where the lines cross, that is the price.

When you own it all, Adam Smith (so-called law of supply and demand) does not apply! If his “law” ever did operate outside the classroom! Which I think not. Like religion, its much more faith than reality. We believe it because we like to believe it.

Don it is true that we are not facing peak Iron Ore but you are forgetting that China will want to diversifier(SP?) its supply of Iron Ore . If I recall correctly from what I learnt in school 80% of the Iron Ore that Japan imports comes from Australia. Other then the environment Chinese leaders aren't fools they will have seen how the friendly price to demand ratio for Oil vanish .

It is true that there wont be same sheer demand for Iron Ore as there is for oil but any disruption in supply would still cause problems an extreme example of this is Japan during World War Two. Price hikes aren't the same thing as a disruption in supply but for the sake of discussion they inter mix a bit.

reply to post by xpert11

Don it is true that we are not facing peak Iron Ore but you are forgetting that China will want to diversify its supply of Iron Ore. If I recall correctly from what I learnt in school 80% of the Iron Ore that Japan imports comes from Australia. It is true that there wont be same sheer demand for Iron Ore as there is for oil but any disruption in supply would still cause problems an extreme example of this is Japan during World War Two.

Yes. Agreed. All major powers want to be “free” of potential interference in their necessary imports. The US is forced to import some of the rare earths and rare metals essential to heavy industry. We maintain a strategic stockpile of those metals, perhaps 2-3 years worth. It is reasonable to presume as you point out, that China would do the same.

Aside: During the War 2 Manhattan Project, copper was in such short supply that the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant transformers were wired with SILVER wire taken from our huge reserves of silver. End.

It will be much harder for the US to exert meaningful influence on China if its economic essentials such as iron ore are available to them from 2 or 3 good sources. Say Hello Africa!

Scrap is a major component of steel making. I believe between 10% and 30% of “new” steel is made of “old” steel or scrap. Sort of like sour dough bread or sour mash whiskey each of which has about 25% of the last batch incorporated into the next batch. This practice tends to give consistent taste and mixing scrap with new iron makes consistent steel.

Japan’s rationale for attacking the US at Pearl Harbor was 1) to gain six months free time to conquer the southern islands of Borneo and Indonesia. That would give them the needed supply of oil and at the same time, cut off the Allies major supply of rubber. The Japanese also believed 2) the US would reach an accommodation with Japan confirming their newly acquired territories rather than engage in a long and costly war. We misjudged them. They misjudged us.

We regard the Battle of Midway, June 1942, as our turning point in the Pacific War. From our perspective, it was all "downhill" from Midway onward. We did not secure Australia and New Zealand from the Japanese threat until late 1943's victory in the Battle of the Solomon Islands. Later, after the decisive Battle of Leyte Gulf in October, 1944 we could have easily reached a peace with Japan restoring the June, 1941 status quo ante, IMO. But Churchill and Roosevelt were both convinced that would only be a hiatus before we'd have another go at it. "Let's finish it now and be done with this!" I imagine they said to each other.

[edit on 5/3/2008 by donwhite]