Do you expect the UK economy to deteriorate in the next six months?

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Growth this year will be strong, and will endure into 2007, driven by company profits and investment.

We know as much because the Treasury, the International Monetary Fund and other economic authorities have told us so. And, indeed, the consensus forecasts show that growth in 2007 will be 2.4pc, following strong expansion of 2.6pc this year.

But what if that bearish friend of yours happened to be a respected City economist - one whose figures were watched closely by a variety of institutions, including the Treasury?

Peter Warburton, who runs a small consultancy called Economic Perspectives, believes that the UK will slump into a full-blown recession next year, shrinking by some 0.3pc over the 12 months. This would be the worst economic performance since 1991, the last recession, which came amid Britain's ignominious ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

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I don't buy it to behonest. How many times have we've been warned about a recession in recent years? ive lost count now. The economy is doing better than expected, GDP% is higher than what was predicted and is expected to reach 3% next year.

Plus, the growing EU economy is helping our economy work wonders too. Majority of our companies are now trading in Euro's and there is more European investiment in the UK than American. So if the US housing market was to crash next year, i somehow doubt we would be badly affected as predicted.

And there is another theory that the stock market is going to crash next year, even though we have reached new record breaking points and we are soon expted to break the 7,000 mark in the FTSE 100.

It's been a tory wet-dream since day 1 of this Labour Gov in 1997.

Everytime growth in the economy slows a little or a piece of bad news comes in they begin trumpeting that doom is just around the corner.
They tend to either just ignore the fact or keep it quiet that this is the longest sustained period of growth any British Gov has ever managed since records began.
(growth under Labour has averaged 2.8%, under the tories it was 2.1 averaged over 1979 - 1997)

Of course they'll never give details so people can compare, will they?

The main Bank of England 'base interest rate' (the one all commercial rates derive from is now 4.75%.
Under the tory party it was for long spells 12% and peaked at 15% (they averaged 11.5% between 1979 - 1997); they were 7.5% when the torys left office.

Inflation is currently (depending on the measure you use) approc 2% - 3.5%.
Under the tory party it was over 5% on average and hit peaks of 21% under Thatcher and 11% under Major.

Unemployment is now (depending on the measure used) either 1million - 1.7million, whereas under the tory party it was 1.7millions when they left office having peaked at over 3millions under both Thatcher and Major.
Labour have seen 2.4million additional jobs created since 1997.

Even borrowing - the tory's last straw - is merely 1.5% of national income compared to the tory figure when they left office of 8%.

www.hm-treasury.gov.uk...

So Labour need not take any lectures about economic performance from the tory party.

But that has not stopped they and their media pals 'forecasting' an economic collapse every year since Labour were elected (which has never arrived.....some economic competence that is, huh? ).

It might also be worth bearing in mind tho that the tory record (with the 2 longest and most severe recessions of the post-war period) illustrates that a recession or even 2 is no guarantee of electoral success for the opposition.

......not that any serious comentator is actually 'forecasting' that we are anywhere near an actual recession.

You really couldn't help mentioning the Tories, could you?

Originally posted by infinite
You really couldn't help mentioning the Tories, could you?

- Why not?

Context is everything.

The politically loaded language & 'slant' of the reports you quoted was clear....

..... and in this case the the 'evidence', 'concerns' and claims you have quoted are from one of the biggest tory biased 'newspapers' there is in the UK....the Torygraph sorry Telegraph.

They are prime amongst those who have drooled over the prospect of the country experiencing great economic difficulties since day 1 in 1997......and have been utterly wrong every time so far.

BTW their little shock! horror! dig about bankruptcy is typical of how they lie and distort the truth.
The figures aren't comparable with pre-Labour times now because they changed the bankruptcy law (for the better).

Thanks to the recent liberalisation of the UK's bankruptcy law people and businesses can become bankrupt and discharge their bankruptcy with much less fuss.
It's both easier to become bankrupt voluntarily and to legally discharge your bankruptcy and leave it properly settled and behind.

Therefore it's not unexpected to see that there is a rise in these numbers, it's perfectly normal in a liberal market economy.

However if we were to see a great rise in this number and an economic downturn then people might have something to be whining about.......but I guess we'll have to await the next tory Gov to get a proper comparison on that, right?

2002 Enterprise Act, new bankruptcy laws

(......and you really do have to laugh at the people - particularly people like the Torygraph - who are always moaning about any legitimate advice this Gov gives (no matter how obviously and acutely some clearly are in need of it) and whining about a 'nanny state' at any and every chance they get are now trying to lay private personal indebtedness at the door of this Gov.
Pathetic.

It really is raking out the bottom on the barrel!)

[edit on 29-10-2006 by sminkeypinkey]