a reply to:
jrod
I just don't think that this brand is going to be bigger than anything in FAANG.
When it comes to investing, I do my best to make sure my opinion is agnostic as possible, but I do have to consider that there is polarity behind the
brand. Domestically it's going to be and issue, and internationally it may just be disinterest.
But the low share size does give it real pumpability, so I won't discount the idea this thing could soar. The only caveat here is upon combination the
warrants will add about 14 million shares to the mix. Now, this isn't the end of the world, but it will still increase circulating shares by about
50%. This is open knowledge though, so some of that is priced in.
These SPAC deals can hit turbulence and aren't a sure thing until combination is complete. I've been dabbling in SPACs for a little over a year now,
and I've seen some shakiness during the transaction phases. CCIV and Lucid come to mind, and while the timing of that was a bit different, it was part
of the reason the SPAC bubble saw a cooling off phase.
All that said I do think it rips short term, especially with the options chain opening up tomorrow. Anyone wanting to sell options on this is likely
going to do so covered. Meaning for every one options contract sold, most sellers are going to have 100 shares backing it. With super volatile stocks
like this you really don't want to sell naked contracts, and a lot of people are going to want to buy calls and puts.
If 50,000 contracts get sold tomorrow, that's going to be 5m shares locked up until the contracts are satisfied. That number is arbitrary and pulled
out of my ass since no one knows how many will get sold, but it's just an example.
And I hate to use cliche terms that often get overused with meme stocks, but the mechanics really could make a gamma and or short squeeze depending on
how this plays out. The float is so low for the amount of attention this has gotten. We went through the whole supply 17 times the first day of
trading, and that might get bottle necked with options in the mix.
I'm really interested to see what happens, I'll be buying in premarket in the morning and possibly selling on a pop to wait for a dip to buy calls.