NEWS: North Korean Nuclear Bluff

Clinton said it the best in an interview with Larry King, this is a country that has an arid landscape they ahve no cash crops, expect for nulear missiles that is how they get their money and their attention.

Originally posted by HowardRoark
Would you care to enlighten us as to the nature of that "intel?"

Most estimates are based on the time it takes to reprocess the uranium, and the amount of uranium in North Korean stocks.

globalsecurity.org
It is estimated that North Korea has completed the nuclear fuel cycle from acquisition to reprocessing of nuclear fuel and is on the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether it has actually produced or possesses nuclear weapons due to difficulties in developing detonation devices and delivery vehicles, which require high-tech and precision technologies. According to various sources of information, North Korea seemed to have reprocessed enough plutonium to produce one or two nuclear weapons. In addition, sufficient plutonium for another six nuclear weapons remained in fuel removed from the reactor at Yongbon but stored under international supervision, under the provisions of the 1994 Agreed Framework.

Granted the source is a little outdated as it doesn't mention the North Korean statement that they do have nukes.

I can't find it right now, but there was also a statement from Sec. Rice that she was aware of NK possesing some nuclear weapons.

Little more info
Again these estimates are based on the amount of reprocessed uranium and the amount of plutonium used to produce a bomb. This source cites the intelligence of several countries.

www.fas.org
Estimates vary of both the amount of plutonium in North Korea's possession and number of nuclear weapons that could be manufactured from the material. South Korean, Japanese, and Russian intelligence estimates of the amount of plutonium separated, for example, are reported to be higher -- 7 to 22 kilograms, 16 to 24 kilograms, and 20 kilograms, respectively -- than the reported US estimate of about 12 kilograms. At least two of the estimates are said to be based on the assumption that North Korea removed fuel rods from the 5-MW(e) reactor and subsequently reprocessed the fuel during slowdowns in the reactor's operations in 1990 and 1991. The variations in the estimates about the number of weapons that could be produced from the material depend on a variety of factors, including assumptions about North Korea's reprocessing capabilities -- advanced technology yields more material -- and the amount of plutonium it takes to make a nuclear weapon. Until January 1994, the Department of Energy (DOE) estimated that 8 kilograms would be needed to make a small nuclear weapon. Thus, the United States' estimate of 12 kilograms could result in one to two bombs. In January 1994, however, DOE reduced the estimate of the amount of plutonium needed to 4 kilograms--enough to make up to three bombs if the US estimate is used and up to six bombs if the other estimates are used.

Originally posted by DYepes
Maybe Kim in fact only has one bomb and testing it would reduce his arsenal to 0. Maybe the CIA knowns this as well and is why the idea of testing one is being brought up so that they can eliminate the threat after its gone?

I'm with you on this one. I actually believe that the Bush's repeated attempts to goad enemies into responses are not simply an overflow of ego. I think Bush said 'Bring 'em on' for two reasons:

1) To consolidate anti-american sentiment and efforts in Iraq where the majority of Americans are heavily armed and ready to fight instead of the 'Homeland' where we're just waiting to be slaughtered.
2) To elicit a reaction from the insurgents which would help planners gauge the overall resistance to U.S. efforts.

I think this is the same sort of thing w/ N. Korea. IF they've got a bomb, it's likely one of only a small few. Coaxing them into testing it will:

1) Deplete their arsenal.
2) Draw other nations into the fray by demonstrating a true N. Korean threat.
3) Kill a fair number of N. Koreans (I've read that as a result of N. Korea's size, fallout is unavoidable if the test is an atmospheric one and due to the large amount of sub-surface aquifers in N. Korea a below ground test would pollute a large quantity of their drinking water.)

Originally posted by RichardPrice
As far as I know, there were only 3 bombs produced - one used for testing, and the other two dropped on Japan. Interestingly, Nagasaki was of a design that had never been tested, the actual live dropping was the first test of it - noone was 100% sure it would work.

Actually the test bomb or "Gadget" as it was called was of the implosion type, the same type of bomb dropped on Nagasaki.

The Manhattan Project

Making a Nuclear weapon like those used in the early days of the Russia and the US nuclear programs is quite easy if you have all they stuff. But shrinking that bomb down so that it cant fit as warhead of a missile is very hard.

Is there any evidence to suggest N Korea has produced a nuclear weapon like this. If they only have some fatboy type bomb I dont see that as much of a threat since any plane they tried to drop it from would likley get shot down long before it hit its target.

Originally posted by dnero6911
To "prove it"???

Doesn't that sound like asking someone to punch you?

Honestly ... WHO CARES?!?! as long as no one bugs them we should be fine right... it's not like their running around the world FORCING freedom on people..

No...they have been trying to FORCE oppression on the south like FOREVER......

Asking for proof does not mean that the US is telling the NK government to use a nuclear weapon on people..... It is a good way also to get rid of another nuclear weapon if they have one.... Perhaps the US government knows the NK don't have lots of nuclear weapons yet.... This would make sure one less nuclear weapon is available to them.

North Korea has enough barren land to test a nuke there.. i do not like this statement because i don't think Kim has ever been right in the head and he might think that a better way to show they have nukes is to use them on live targets....

But, testing a nuke takes time, and a lot of military movement on the ground to prepare for the tests... This military movement by the NK army will most certainly give us more information for the US to know where the NK have nukes.

[edit on 17-2-2005 by Muaddib]