Tropical Storm Ericka poses a threat to Florida and SE CONUS as a hurricane

It is that time of year and it has been about a decade since Florida had a landfall.

As of now Tropical Storm Ericka is located just to the south of Puerto Rico and forecast to become a hurricane and be very near Florida's east coast on Monday and Tuesday. Currently Ericka is a weak and disorganized tropical storm, but still producing squally weather and strong winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Time will tell if the interaction with the Puerto Rico and the mountains of Hispaniola will cause significant weakening in the near future.

The long range forecast has Ericka being over very warm water in the Bahamas with favorable atmospheric conditions for development. As someone who has seen many storms, this is a recipe for rapid intensification and something for Floridians to be watching carefully, especially if the storm remains intact after her interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Link to current radar in Puerto Rico

sorry about this...but...it might be time for florida to get flooded...why do I say this?......it's because since the last hurricane (which has been some time ago)....there have been many people that have moved into Florida thinking it's all "milk and honey"...and they have never experienced such brutal winds, rains, and flooding that a hurricane produces

a reply to: jimmyx

Generally all the hype and panic before the storm is worse than the actual storm itself, unless the storm becomes a monster....

It is still too early to tell where the storm and especially how strong it will be, despite the vast improvement in our forecasting. Things like water, batteries, lumber, and generators sell out fast when we get issued a Hurricane Watch.

Despite the uncertainty, my local National Weather Office has tropical storm condition possible late Sunday/Monday and hurricane conditions possible on Tuesday.

I was wondering why the local TV news here in Chicago was showing people buying car loads of bottled water in Florida. I thought it was due to water contamination or something. (Sound was down)

The National Weather Service needs to save face after 2 years in a row of calling for super hurricanes, with none developing for the USA. I'm sure they're hoping that Ericka explodes to at least a Category 4 storm.

originally posted by: carewemust

The National Weather Service needs to save face after 2 years in a row of calling for super hurricanes, with none developing for the USA. I'm sure they're hoping that Ericka explodes to at least a Category 4 storm.

I am fairly certain the NWS/NOAA made no such claims and completely certain they do not want the storm to explode into a monster.

I am concerned because the ingredients are there for intensification when the storm should be in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

Right now there is a possibility the storm may dissipate or become an open tropical wave as a result of land interaction and wind shear. While the squalls associated with Ericka have been intense, the storm is disorganized and could go poof*, like Danny.

This is the latest discussion(as of this post) from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Best hopes that it downgrades. I'll update from any family and friends info on it.

originally posted by: jimmyx
sorry about this...but...it might be time for florida to get flooded...why do I say this?......it's because since the last hurricane (which has been some time ago)....there have been many people that have moved into Florida thinking it's all "milk and honey"...and they have never experienced such brutal winds, rains, and flooding that a hurricane produces

Yeah, it comes with the territory that the new Floridians don't understand; from the prepping(which should be done regardless) to the shrugging it off because they don't always hit, the media's hype and to the empty store shelve hassle.

It's been quite season wise so maybe now it's just in the cards for an active one. Looking at activity elsewhere, such as with wild fires, there's been record breaking activity due to all the drought in the west.

I think one of the last major hurricanes to hit Florida was Wilma. To put that in personal perspective, that was my grandmother's name and it was one of the last years she was still with us because we gave her crap about it. She's been gone for quite some time now. She didn't live to see Obama for example.

It's been 10 years for Florida:

Dennis, Cat 3, July 2005
Katrina, Cat 1, August 2005
Rita, Cat 1, September 2005
Wilma, Cat 3, October 2005

After Katrina, everyone should take storm events seriously no matter how much they think it's panic and exaggeration. It doesn't hurt to be prepared for these things, and I do feel as though people have become far too complacent and ignorant to what nature can do.

People have a false sense of security, and that's not helped by services who claim to be able to help everyone all the time when that is clearly not possible.

The first thing America needs to do with regard to preparation for things like this is make it absolutely clear that with just 10 emergencies in one area all services stop. People think all they need to do is call 911, but when another ten people are doing the same you are not a priority, no one else is, it's first come first served and there are only so many resources to go around.

Maybe if people had a better understanding of the limitations of emergency responders they would be less willing to take the risk and stay put when told to evacuate, or maybe they would actually spend $50 on buying the right supplies, or maybe they would just take more responsibility for themselves on the whole?

The myth of "everyone can be saved by heroes" needs to end, tell people the truth and tell them they will likely be on their own when the SHTF.

I grew up in Florida, worked at bush gardens in tampa... They didn't even shut down till a strong cat 3.

Kachina was a freak storm.. Should people prep, yes everyone should prep to some degree there is no part of the country that doesn't experience some form of extreme weather.

I wouldn't consider running for tge Hills unless you live on the beach directly in its path.

Ericka is looking ragged this morning. The National Hurricane Center is no longer forecasting a hurricane, however they are still forecasting a Florida strike as a tropical storm.

Ericka may not survive today, but if she does she will be in a favorable environment for strengthening this weekend.

a reply to: Rocker2013
I an one of those who stay behind on the beach when the evacuation order is given unless of course the storm is a monster. 950mb or lower is the threshold for me to consider evacuating....

If Ericka makes it to Florida, I will be riding her out on my sailboat.

The center of the storm is now over the Island of Hispaniola. Flooding rains and gusty winds can be expected, right now the National Hurricane Center latest report is 40 knot winds and a pressure of 1009 millibars(a bit on the high side).

The next 12 hours are crucial, if the storm can remain intact after interacting with the mountainous terrain then Cuba, The Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas, and Florida will likely experience tropical storm conditions.

Since the storm is out of the range of the radar in the OP here is a link to the latest satellite images:

Erika Tropical Cyclone Floater Satellite

Erika has dissipated and chances are low for regeneration.

It looks like unfavorable wind shear, dry air, and the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba took out the storm.

The Pacific is still very active and there is a new invest off the coast of Africa on the Atlantic side.

I don't live in FL anymore, but allow me to make a prediction, assuming anything regens:

It'll just be TS Debbie 2.0. Possibly slow-moving, a lot of rain, flooding in the usual places (which is not even eyelash-bat worthy) and a few downed trees & lost shingles. Oh, and Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa will be under water, as per normal.

I find it hilarious when people in other states or countries flip out when a TS or TD moves towards Florida like it's a major disaster looming. Naw, a Category 1 might get people's attention a little, but not a TS, and certainly not a TD. Those are just prolonged afternoon thunderstorm winds & rain to Floridians.

a reply to: Nyiah

You should have seen the water fly off the shelves at the stores this week here in Florida. We had a weak tropical storm that at one point was forecast to be right off Florida has a minimal hurricane and panic mode set it for some.

The marina I am at even started evacuating boats of their exposed docks on Friday before the storm even made it through the mountains of Hispaniola.

As I said before, the hype is often much worse than a tropical storm, minimal hurricane. The problem with the layperson freaking out over the high error long range forecast, when we actually do get a monster storm they may not heed the warning.

I know New Orleans had many false alarms over the years before Katrina, I can't help but wonder if this is why some people didn't heed the warning.

a reply to: jrod

Thank-you for this update, JRod. I come back to town and do a news search for "Ericka" and nothing comes up. Now I know why.

It looked like half the news media in America had sent someone to cover this. Hopefully Florida Government will reconsider calling a "State of Emergency!" the next time a minimal Hurricane is still 1,000 miles away.

a reply to: carewemust

I misspelled the name in the OP, it's Erika without the C.

We are still getting squally weather from the remnants interacting with a trough. The Florida Keys especially.

Florida governor is out of touch of reality, no surprise he jumped the gun. Declaring a state of Emergency and a hurricane is on the way causes storm prep items to fly off the shelf.

Tropical Storm Fred now has formed off the coast of Africa. Historically a storm forming that far east has never hit the CONUS.

a reply to: jrod

Well there is a first time for everything, but I'm not going to hold my breath on this one just yet.